Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Friday July 24th 2015 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible across Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island and possibly other parts of Southern New England Friday Afternoon and Evening as a upper level low brings a cold pool of air aloft to the area. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will likely commence at 2 PM EDT Friday lasting through early evening. A more detailed coordination message will follow on Friday Morning by 9 AM EDT. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
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Special Announcement: 2.3 Magnitude Earthquake 1 Mile/2 Kilometers Southeast of Provdience RI

Hello to all..

A small earthquake/earth tremor, magnitude 2.3 on the Richter Scale occurred at 343 AM local time 1 mile/2 Kilometers Southeast of Providence RI. Details including maps can be seen via the following link from the United States Geological Survey:

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/dyfi/events/ld/60096961/us/index.html

If you felt this earthquake, the USGS has a questionnaire that can be filled out. The link provided has an embedded link that says “Did you feel it – tell us!” and has questions that can be answered and a comment field for other comments that you’d like to make if you felt this earthquake. This information can be used in future research on earth tremors and earthquakes in Southern New England. No damage or injuries have been reported.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday July 20th 2015 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Marginal Risk for Isolated Strong to Severe Thunderstorms this mid-afternoon and evening across Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts especially along and south of the I-95 corridor. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the threat. As of 300 PM, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning has been issued for Northeast New London County CT until 400 PM. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement regarding this severe thunderstorm and the NWS Brookhaven, NY Severe Thunderstorm Warning for New London County Connecticut. There have already been wind damage reports in Lebanon, CT with this severe thunderstorm..

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Brookhaven New York Severe Thunderstorm Warning for New London County CT:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KOKX/1507201901.wuus51.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Sunday Evening 7/19/15-Eary Monday Morning 7/20/15 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Potential exists for a significant severe weather outbreak across much of the NWS Taunton coverage area as well as adjoining coverage areas from mid to late Sunday Afternoon through early Monday Morning. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has expanded and upgraded the severe weather risk across Southern New England. Widespread pockets of damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..The situation could evolve from Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms during the early part of the Sunday severe weather potential time period and then potentially evolve into a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) that will track over much of New England especially north of the Mass Pike but all of Southern New England has a potential risk for severe weather..
..Pictures and video of damage and conditions can be sent as a reply to this message, via the pictures email address of pics@nsradio.org and via the WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds. Even pictures and video sent a day or several days after the event can be of use in providing information for the historical record of the event and for situational awareness and disaster intelligence purposes. Credit will be given to the Amateur Radio Operator/SKYWARN Spotters for the pictures and will be shared with emergency management, non-governmental organizations, media and posted on the WX1BOX Facebook page unless otherwise noted..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence no later than 400 PM and as early as 200 PM with operations extending into at least a portion of the overnight hours. ARES/RACES and Emergency Management groups should closely monitor the progress of today’s severe weather potential including the potential for severe weather to extend into the overnight hours..

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has upgraded and slid the severe weather risk further east. An enhanced risk for severe weather is forecast for Western Massachusetts, South-Central New Hampshire, South-Central Vermont and back into Eastern New York. Surrounding the enhanced risk area there is a slight risk for severe weather across Northern Connecticut, Central and Northeast Massachusetts. Surrounding the Slight risk area, there is a marginal risk for severe weather for the rest of Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts. NWS Taunton is in agreement with the assessment. These risk areas could change in configuration and be adjusted in category over the course of the day as thunderstorms begin to develop and their movement and organization is determined.

Intense heat and humidity will affect the region today. Initially, all levels of the atmosphere will be quite warm. This will initially “cap” convection from occurring. As we get into the timeframe as early as mid-late afternoon, cooling in the upper levels of the atmosphere will start taking place. With the intense heat and humidity in place and the cooling aloft occurring as a cold front approaches the region, wind shear will initially be modest but enough when combined with very high instability in place in the region to allow for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in the highlighted risk areas for severe weather. The question then becomes whether this activity will organize into a complex of strong to severe thunderstorms known as a Mesoscale Convective System or MCS as wind shear will increase over time as we get into the early evening and overnight hours with intense instability remaining in place even after the time of peak heating.

Weather models even at short range and even with some of the high resolution models we have today can have trouble both with timing the severe weather and where the systems organize and track. Some computer models keep the activity just north of Southern New England while others track the activity into the northern half of Southern New England or even all the way to the Southern New England coastline. Some weather models get activity going as early as mid-afternoon while other computer models highlight the threat more towards evening.

Given this type of scenario, its imperative that situation be monitored very closely with the potential for a significant severe weather outbreak with widespread pockets of wind damage, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. There is still the chance that activity is more isolated or scattered but given the potential for a more significant outbreak and that being a more likely scenario at this time, it needs to be considered from a preparedness perspective and if it does not occur, it serves as good practice for a situation that ends up being a more significant severe weather outbreak later in the season. Since activity could last into the late evening and a portion of the overnight hours, SKYWARN Spotters, Amateur Radio Operators and Emergency Management folks should have their NOAA All Hazards Radio set to alert them to a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for their area or use other such computer based systems to alert them to any impending severe weather for your specific local area during overnight hours.

Pictures and video of damage and conditions can be sent as a reply to this message, via the pictures email address of pics@nsradio.org and via the WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds. Even pictures and video sent a day or several days after the event can be of use in providing information for the historical record of the event and for situational awareness and disaster intelligence purposes. Credit will be given to the Amateur Radio Operator/SKYWARN Spotters for the pictures and will be shared with emergency management, non-governmental organizations, media and posted on the WX1BOX Facebook page unless otherwise noted.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence no later than 400 PM and as early as 200 PM with operations extending into at least a portion of the overnight hours. ARES/RACES and Emergency Management groups should closely monitor the progress of today’s severe weather potential including the potential for severe weather to extend into the overnight hours. As we move into operations mode, this will likely be the last coordination message for this severe weather potential but if the severe weather potential is a bit later this evening and time allows, an updated coordination message in some form could be posted by 600 PM. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Special Weather Statement and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Saturday Evening 7/18/15 & Sunday Evening 7/19/15-Eary Monday Morning 7/20/15 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms could occur this Saturday Evening across Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut between 530 and 10 PM this evening. Strong winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rain with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..A more widespread and potentially significant severe weather outbreak is possible Sunday Evening into the overnight hours Sunday Night into early Monday Morning. Widespread pockets of damaging winds, large hail, frequent lightning and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of western and central New England into a marginal to slight risk for severe weather and it is possible these risk areas could be expanded further east and upgraded as things evolve with a cold front and a potential complex of severe thunderstorms that will organize in New York State and spread east through the Sunday Evening and Sunday Night into early Monday Morning overnight hours..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor conditions for Saturday Evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will likely commence by 6 or 7 PM Sunday Evening potentially lasting into a portion of the overnight hours for the potential severe weather outbreak..

After a few thunderstorms Saturday Afternoon moved through the area with heavy rainfall and frequent lightning, clearing has taken place across much of Western New England with new thunderstorms organizing in New York State. Instability will be present given clearing over the area but wind shear is marginal. These conditions may allow for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms from Eastern New York to move into Western New England before the loss of sunshine and daytime heating causes thunderstorms to weaken as they move east. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rain with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats.

For Sunday, intense heat and humidity will be across all of Southern New England. This will lead to high heat indices across much of Southern New England. The atmosphere will be capped during the day but as we get into the evening, cooling aloft will take place ahead of an approaching cold front with strong wind shear and high instability due to the intense heat of the day could lead to a potentially significant severe weather outbreak for Sunday Evening into the overnight hours Sunday through early Monday Morning despite the timing being past the time of peak heating into the evening and overnight hours. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of western and central New England into a marginal to slight risk for severe weather weather and there is the potential for the risk areas to shift further east and be upgraded further with a potential complex of strong to severe thunderstorms moving through the region followed by more isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm activity as we get into the early morning Monday timeframe. Widespread pockets of damaging winds, large hail, frequent lightning and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor conditions for Saturday Evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will likely commence by 6 or 7 PM Sunday Evening potentially lasting into a portion of the overnight hours for the potential severe weather outbreak. The next coordination message regarding the Sunday Evening and overnight hour severe weather potential will be issued by 1030 AM Sunday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2015/day2otlk_20150718_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday July 8th 2015 Flood/Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely Wednesday in the late morning through early evening across much of Southern New England. Urban, poor drainage to possibly small stream flooding is the main threat but isolated localized damaging winds or wet microbursts are also possible similar to what occurred in South Deerfield, MA on Tuesday..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect from Wednesday Morning to Wednesday Evening for Suffolk, Norfolk, Bristol, Plymouth and Barnstable Counties of Massachusetts and all of Rhode Island except for Block Island for the potential of localized urban and poor drainage flooding to possibly small stream flooding where thunderstorms can produce 1-2″ or more of rainfall in an hour. This Flash Flood Watch could be expanded to other areas on Wednesday depending on where potential strong thunderstorms can setup..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will likely commence at 1100 AM Wednesday to monitor this potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and the NWS Taunton Local Storm Report and Public Information Statement regarding Tuesday’s microburst in South Deerfield, Mass and the flooding in the Greenfield, Mass area..

NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report – Tuesday July 7th 2015 Severe Weather and Flooding:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1507080157.nwus51.html

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement – South Deerfield, Mass Microburst:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1507080320.nous41.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Special Announcement: ARRL Hurricane Webinar and NWS Taunton Hurricane Workshops

Hello to all..

This special announcement is to cover some opportunities on hurricane education open to all SKYWARN Spotters, Amateur Radio Operators and the general public in July 2015. This announcement covers an ARRL Hurricane Webinar as well as the NWS Taunton Hurricane Workshops being offered across the south coast of Rhode Island and Massachusetts.

The American Radio Relay League, ARRL, will be offering a Hurricane Webinar on Monday July 20th, 2015 from 8-930 PM. Details on the hurricane webinar and registration information can be seen via the following link:
http://www.arrl.org/news/arrl-2015-hurricane-season-webinar-set-for-july-20

NWS Taunton will be sponsoring hurricane workshops across the South Coast of Rhode Island and Massachusetts. For the Hurricane Workshop on Monday July 20th in Newport RI, pre-registration is required. For the Massachusetts sessions, no pre-registration is needed. Details on the workshops, can be seen at the following links:

Newport RI Hurricane Workshop – Note Pre-registration link in the PDF Document:
http://www.weather.gov/media/box/officePrograms/outreach/salveregina-final.pdf

Massachusetts Hurricane Workshops:
http://www.weather.gov/media/box/officePrograms/outreach/combinedmacor.pdf

The hurricane workshops provide an opportunity to be reminded on the safety and preparedness information for hurricanes and tropical storms. In the last few years, tropical systems such as Irene and Sandy have affected the region and had potent impacts but their impacts to Southern New England were on the scale of strong tropical storms and the last hurricane to directly impact Southern New England was Hurricane Bob in 1991. While the seasonal forecasts are calling for a below average number of tropical systems, it only takes one hurricane with the ‘right’ track and intensity to make it a ‘bad season’ for a given location. These hurricane workshops are a means to remind of ourselves of safety and preparedness and to also report in weather conditions per the SKYWARN reporting criteria if a hurricane or tropical system strikes Southern New England.

We hope folks can attend one of the hurricane workshops and the ARRL Hurricane Webinar over the course of this month.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday July 1st 2015 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely across much of Southern New England away from the Cape and Islands mid-late Wednesday Morning through late afternoon Wednesday. Strong to Damaging winds, hail and urban and poor drainage flooding from heavy rainfall are the primary threats but a secondary threat for isolated tornadoes exists depending on the level of destabilization in the atmosphere and the position of the warm front as it moves through the area..
..The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has placed much of Southern New England except for the Cape and Islands in a marginal risk for severe weather but could upgrade the region in future outlooks..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 730 AM Wednesday Morning to monitor the severe weather potential..

Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely across much of Southern New England away from the Cape and Islands mid to late Wednesday Morning through late afternoon Wednesday as a warm front will move through the region Wednesday Morning followed by a cold front in the early to mid-afternoon timeframe on Wednesday. The key item to be resolved is whether there will be clearing to allow for destabilization of the atmosphere or if the level of wind shear and other parameters such as the cold pool of air aloft can overcome a lack of heating to allow for a more potent severe weather event or whether there will be isolated to scattered activity limited by the cloud cover and any morning shower and thunderstorm activity. It is noted that when colder air moves in aloft such as in the scenario for Wednesday, these scenarios have a tendency to be fairly prolific severe weather producers in Southern New England despite cloud cover as well as the possible earlier timing of activity.

The primary threat is for strong to damaging winds, hail and urban and poor drainage flooding from heavy rainfall but a secondary threat for isolated tornadoes depending on the level of destabilization and the position of the warm front. SPC has expanded the marginal risk for severe weather to much of Southern New England north and west of the Cape and Islands and have noted a possible upgrade in later outlooks. The threat timeframe in more specific terms is a bit earlier than normal with the threat in the 9 AM-4 PM timeframe.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 730 AM Wednesday Morning to monitor the severe weather potential. There is the possibility for one more coordination message to be sent by 900 AM Wednesday or this will be the last coordination message for this event depending on the evolution and timing for any strong to severe thunderstorms in the first part of the morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and the SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1506301752.acus02.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday July 1st, 2015 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across much of interior Southern New England from mid-morning Wednesday to mid to late afternoon Wednesday. Strong to damaging winds, hail and heavy downpours with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. Key items on the severe weather threat will be the amount of instability that can develop given potentially earlier timing of severe weather into the area. Wind shear profiles will be favorable for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development..
..The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has placed portions of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather Wednesday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Wednesday. The next coordination message will be posted by 700 PM Tuesday Evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
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Storm/Amateur Radio Field Day Coordination Message #5 – Saturday 6/27/15-Sunday 6/28/15 Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend Weather Information

Hello to all..

..The following is the fifth and final message in a series of messages on Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend and providing information on the weather during this period. This is a tradition spanning over 13 years for Amateur Radio Operators involved with Field Day and the NWS Taunton SKYWARN Program..
..A windswept rain is expected to develop across much of the NWS Taunton coverage area Saturday Evening through midday Sunday followed by the chance for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms late Sunday Morning into Sunday Afternoon. This will likely make Amateur Radio Field Day activities wet during the second half of the weekend. Field Day sites are advised to bring rain gear and to prepare for possible windy conditions that could develop as well as for the chance of lightning and thunderstorm activity with the potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. A widespread 1-3″ of rainfall is likely Saturday Evening into Sunday. Isolated higher amounts of 3-4″ are also possible..
..The Flood Watch has been expanded in areal coverage. A Flood Watch is now in effect for Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island except for Cape Cod and the Islands from tonight through Saturday Afternoon. A Flood Watch remains in effect for Western Hampshire, Western Hampden and Western Franklin Counties from 2 AM Sunday through late Sunday Night. Urban and poor drainage flooding and possibly small stream flooding is the main threat..
..The Wind Advisory has been expanded in areal coverage. A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 3 AM to Noon Sunday for Rhode Island for sustained winds of 15-25 MPH with wind gusts to 35-45 MPH with isolated higher gusts closer to the coast and in higher terrain areas. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands from 3 AM-Noon Sunday for Southeast winds at 20-30 MPH with wind gusts to 45-50 MPH. These winds will be capable of causing isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and can cause problems for outdoor Field Day sites with portable outdoor antenna systems, tents, canopies etc. These portable antenna systems, tents and canopies will need to be tied down well given the strong winds. Areas outside of the Wind Advisory in the higher terrain of Western New England could see wind gusts as high as 30 to possibly 40 MPH during the overnight hours into early Sunday Afternoon..
..A High Surf Advisory is now in effect from 8 AM to 8 PM Sunday for East and South Coastal Massachusetts and South Coastal Rhode Island due to strong winds causing high surf and rip current conditions on area beaches..
..Depending on the track of the storm, isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with an attendant lightning risk and having the potential for strong to damaging winds and heavy rainfall is also possible. The greatest risk appears to be confined to Southeastern New England late Sunday Morning into Sunday Afternoon with the warm sector staying south of the Mass Pike. This will continue to bear watching..
..Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend is an annual event where Ham Operators across the United States setup at Emergency Operations Centers, field locations, home locations etc. to operate and test their equipment and skills and make as many radio contacts as possible during the weekend. Many locations can be visited by the public and Amateur Radio Field Day can be a form of outreach to Ham and non-Ham Operators. It is also noted that several states have given proclamations to Amateur Radio/Ham Radio Operators for either an ‘Amateur Radio Day or Amateur Radio Week’ during the month of June or an ‘Amateur Radio Month’ for this month. It is both a fun/preparatory event for Ham Radio Operators for Emergency Communications scenarios..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the storm through this evening and to the first half of the overnight hours. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence no later than 530 AM EDT looking for reports of storm conditions and to guard Amateur Radio Field Day sites across Southern New England by providing latest weather data as required..

There are a large number of Amateur Radio Field Day sites across the NWS Taunton Coverage Area and adjacent NWS Coverage Areas. Here are some links to information on these Amateur Radio Field Day Sites from across the region:

Amateur Radio Field Day Information: http://www.arrl.org/field-day
Amateur Radio Field Day National Locator: http://www.arrl.org/field-day-locator
Eastern Massachusetts Field Day Home Page: http://fd.ema.arrl.org/

After dry conditions through Saturday Afternoon with increasing and thickening clouds, storm impacts will begin to be felt later this Saturday Evening and especially during the overnight hours through Noon Sunday. We have broken the various potential weather hazards into sections with this storm:

Heavy Rainfall and Flood Potential:

Rain should commence between 4-8 PM from west to east based on current weather forecast models. Rain will become heavy overnight after midnight with the heaviest rain between 2-11 AM. Rain should end from west to east during the early afternoon. The Flood Watch has been expanded in areal coverage. A Flood Watch is now in effect for Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island except for Cape Cod and the Islands from tonight through Saturday Afternoon. A Flood Watch remains in effect for Western Hampshire, Western Hampden and Western Franklin Counties from 2 AM Sunday through late Sunday Night. Urban and poor drainage flooding and possibly small stream flooding is the main threat. Widespread 1-3″ rainfall is expected with isolated 3-4″ amounts possible in areas that received the heaviest downpours for the longest period of time.

Strong to Damaging Wind Potential:

The Wind Advisory has been expanded in areal coverage. A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 3 AM to Noon Sunday for Rhode Island for sustained winds of 15-25 MPH with wind gusts to 35-45 MPH with isolated higher gusts closer to the coast and in higher terrain areas. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands from 3 AM-Noon Sunday for Southeast winds at 20-30 MPH with wind gusts to 45-50 MPH. These winds will be capable of causing isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and can cause problems for outdoor Field Day sites with portable outdoor antenna systems, tents, canopies etc. These portable antenna systems, tents and canopies will need to be tied down well given the strong winds. Areas outside of the Wind Advisory in the higher terrain of Western New England could see wind gusts as high as 30 to possibly 40 MPH during the overnight hours into early Sunday Afternoon.

Coastal High Surf at Area Beaches:

A High Surf Advisory is now in effect from 8 AM to 8 PM Sunday for East and South Coastal Massachusetts and South Coastal Rhode Island due to strong winds causing high surf and rip current conditions on area beaches. Given the weather conditions for heavy rainfall, people are less likely to be at beaches but those that are should use extra caution as the high surf and rip currents can affect poor swimmers and pull them into deeper waters resulting in a safety issue for people in the water. Use caution if headed out to the ocean on Sunday.

Severe weather and Thunderstorm Potential:

Concerning thunderstorm potential, this will be contingent on the warm sector position. At this time, the boundary looks to be right over Southern New England in the vicinity of the Mass. Pike. At this time, there is a continued concern that isolated strong to severe thunderstorms could occur in Southeast New England late Sunday Morning into Sunday Afternoon with strong to damaging winds, the attendant lightning risk and urban and poor drainage flooding as the primary threat. This will be contingent on the level of instability in the atmosphere and where the warm sector position ultimately ends up. Wind shear profiles are sufficient to support isolated strong to severe thunderstorms.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the storm through this evening and to the first half of the overnight hours. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence no later than 530 AM EDT looking for reports of storm conditions and to guard Amateur Radio Field Day sites across Southern New England by providing latest weather data as required. Below are links to the NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement, Wind Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Area Forecast Discussion for those interested in checking out weather conditions over the course of Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend:

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

As a reminder, during setup and takedown of Amateur Radio Field Day sites and even while operating, be sure to drink plenty of fluids and eat accordingly. Also having a jacket or sweatshirt during evenings as conditions cool etc. may also be useful while operating this year’s Field Day as well as rain gear given the expected rain and heavy rainfall. The links below features information on Heat Safety as well as Lightning Safety since this year’s Amateur Radio Field Day weekend coincides with Lightning Safety Awareness Week, Flood Safety Information from the NWS Taunton Flood Safety Awareness Week given the potential for heavy rainfall and Severe Weather Safety information from the 2015 severe weather preparedness week given the potential for severe weather during the second half of Amateur Radio Field Day weekend:

NWS Heat Safety Rules:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/heat/index.shtml

NWS Taunton Flood Safety Awareness Week Information:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/flood_awareness_2015.txt

NWS Taunton Lightning Safety Awareness Week Information:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/lightning_safety_awareness_2015.txt

NWS Taunton Public Information Statements – Severe Weather Preparedness Week:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/severe_weather_awareness_2015.txt

NWS Taunton Severe Weather Preparedness Week Web Page:
http://www.weather.gov/box/SevereWeatherPreparednessWeek

Amateur Radio Field Day sites are strongly encouraged to bring a NOAA All-Hazards Weather Radio and a dedicated Ham Radio that can monitor their local SKYWARN Frequency for their area as a best safety and preparedness practice. Also sites that have mobile Internet capability can utilize that capability as a way to monitor for weather information. With Mobile Internet capability, utilizing Echolink to monitor the New England Reflector system on Echolink Conference Node: 9123/IRLP 9123 would be helpful as well. Please see the link below for the latest SKYWARN Frequency information for the region:
http://beta.wx1box.org/node/37

This will be the last coordination message on this storm system and coordinating weather for Amateur Radio Field Day operations as we move into operations mode for the storm and to support weather data for Southern New England Amateur Radio Field Day sites.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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