Tropical Storm Hermine Coordination Message #1 – Sunday 9/4/16-Monday 9/5/16 Possible Storm Impacts
Hello to all…
..Tropical Storm Hermine made landfall as a Category-1 hurricane early Friday Morning in the St Marks Florida area. Hermine, will track up the Southeast US coast and reemerge of the North Carolina coast and reintensify into either a strong post tropical system or possibly keep or regain tropical characteristics.
..Hermine is expected to stall offshore to the south of Southern New England and to the east of the mid-atlantic states for several days. Rain and wind threats are possible especially in southern and southeast portions of Southern New England but extent of those threats is very uncertain and may depend on where Hermine goes stationary or how close to the coast her ultimate track is..
..The National Hurricane Center is advising that interests along the Northeast United States coast should monitor the progress of this system prompting the start of coordination messages on Hermine..
..High surf and rip currents will be a concern this weekend along coastal area beaches and extreme caution is advised for those headed to area beaches for the Labor Day weekend. This part of the impact of Hermine is quite certain with high confidence..
..SKYWARN Activation in some form is possible Sunday and Monday and Ops at NWS Taunton are possible during some portion of this timeframe. Specifics of possible activation are too early to determine at this time..
With Hermine tracking through the Southeast United States and the National Hurricane Center advising interests in the Northeast to monitor the progress of Hermine, coordination messages for this system have started. Exact impacts are very uncertain. Hermine is expected to emerge off the North Carolina coast and then stall south of Southern New England coast and east of the Mid-Atlantic coast. Where Hermine stalls and the intensity and characteristics of Hermine will ultimately determine impacts particularly to southern and southeast portions of Southern New England. One item that is very certain is that coastal Southern New England will experience high surf and rip currents on coastal area beaches and extreme caution is advised for beachgoers. There will be some potential for rain and wind impacts but the extent is uncertain and could range from little to no rain and sub-criteria winds to strong to damaging winds and heavier rainfall. Coastal impacts could range from minor beach erosion to a more widespread minor to pockets of moderate coastal flooding. Future model runs and the characteristics, intensity and track of Hermine will determine these impacts with greater confidence. The main impacts right now appear to be Sunday into Monday but given the stalling track, there could be some impacts beyond this timeframe.
At this time, SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators should monitor the progress of Hermine and begin thinking about some low level of preparations. With the holiday weekend and many people having plans, keep an eye on the weather and the progress of Hermine during this period. It can never hurt to make some level of preparations. If the impacts from Hermine are minimal, you will be prepared in case another tropical system gets close or impacts the region.
SKYWARN Activation in some form is possible Sunday and Monday and Ops at NWS Taunton are possible during some portion of this timeframe. Specifics of possible activation are too early to determine at this time. Another coordination message will either be posted by 1130 PM Friday Evening or 1000 AM Saturday Morning depending on updated forecast information. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and Area Forecast Discussion as well as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Storm Hermine Advisory and Information graphics link:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html
National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Storm Hermine Advisory Information and Infographics:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#HERMINE
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box
Hello to all…
..Tropical Storm Hermine made landfall as a Category-1 hurricane early Friday Morning in the St Marks Florida area. Hermine, will track up the Southeast US coast and reemerge of the North Carolina coast and reintensify into either a strong post tropical system or possibly keep or regain tropical characteristics.
..Hermine is expected to stall offshore to the south of Southern New England and to the east of the mid-atlantic states for several days. Rain and wind threats are possible especially in southern and southeast portions of Southern New England but extent of those threats is very uncertain and may depend on where Hermine goes stationary or how close to the coast her ultimate track is..
..The National Hurricane Center is advising that interests along the Northeast United States coast should monitor the progress of this system prompting the start of coordination messages on Hermine..
..High surf and rip currents will be a concern this weekend along coastal area beaches and extreme caution is advised for those headed to area beaches for the Labor Day weekend. This part of the impact of Hermine is quite certain with high confidence..
..SKYWARN Activation in some form is possible Sunday and Monday and Ops at NWS Taunton are possible during some portion of this timeframe. Specifics of possible activation are too early to determine at this time..
With Hermine tracking through the Southeast United States and the National Hurricane Center advising interests in the Northeast to monitor the progress of Hermine, coordination messages for this system have started. Exact impacts are very uncertain. Hermine is expected to emerge off the North Carolina coast and then stall south of Southern New England coast and east of the Mid-Atlantic coast. Where Hermine stalls and the intensity and characteristics of Hermine will ultimately determine impacts particularly to southern and southeast portions of Southern New England. One item that is very certain is that coastal Southern New England will experience high surf and rip currents on coastal area beaches and extreme caution is advised for beachgoers. There will be some potential for rain and wind impacts but the extent is uncertain and could range from little to no rain and sub-criteria winds to strong to damaging winds and heavier rainfall. Coastal impacts could range from minor beach erosion to a more widespread minor to pockets of moderate coastal flooding. Future model runs and the characteristics, intensity and track of Hermine will determine these impacts with greater confidence. The main impacts right now appear to be Sunday into Monday but given the stalling track, there could be some impacts beyond this timeframe.
At this time, SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators should monitor the progress of Hermine and begin thinking about some low level of preparations. With the holiday weekend and many people having plans, keep an eye on the weather and the progress of Hermine during this period. It can never hurt to make some level of preparations. If the impacts from Hermine are minimal, you will be prepared in case another tropical system gets close or impacts the region.
SKYWARN Activation in some form is possible Sunday and Monday and Ops at NWS Taunton are possible during some portion of this timeframe. Specifics of possible activation are too early to determine at this time. Another coordination message will either be posted by 1130 PM Friday Evening or 1000 AM Saturday Morning depending on updated forecast information. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and Area Forecast Discussion as well as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Storm Hermine Advisory and Information graphics link:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html
National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Storm Hermine Advisory Information and Infographics:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#HERMINE
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box