Hello to all..

..Power continues to be restored across areas of New England hard hit by the historic and anomalous major nor’easter winter storm that severely impacted Western, Central and Northeast Massachusetts, Southern New Hampshire and Connecticut..
..ARES/RACES/MARS and EMCOMM groups continue to monitor the situation closely in case support is needed..
..A Federal disaster declaration has been given to Massachusetts, Connecticut and New Hampshire over the past 2 days..
..A web story on the Amateur Radio Response has been posted to the American Radio Relay League (ARRL) web site and has been added to the links below..
..An additional link from NECN Broadcast Meteorologist, Matt Noyes, has been added to this message in an effort to promote preparedness and self-sufficiency for the next major storm to affect the region down the road understanding that improvements can still be made to the utility company response..
..Realizing that many folks who may provide pictures and data are still without power, it is reminded that even pictures and damage info given days after the incident can be very useful in understanding the extent of damage and providing a historical record for such an anomalous event. Any pictures that would be shared with the media, emergency management and NWS officials can be sent to pics@nsradio.org and credit will be given to the spotter who provided the pictures unless otherwise indicated..
..We extend a tremendous appreciation to all of our SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators that provided reports, pictures and video for this major storm and throughout the entire 2011 year which has been historic in terms of significant weather events affecting the region. This appreciation is detailed further in this coordination message..
..Another post storm coordination message will follow either Friday or Saturday. Web site resources that those with power can share with those that don’t have power are listed below to keep those ‘in the dark’ situationally aware of what is happening as far as restoration efforts..
..The first paragraph of this message and the two links mentioned in the prior headlines are the updates. Remainder is unchanged..

The Major Nor’easter of October 29th-30th has caused major impact to the region. Power outages remain widespread though are being reduced gradually across the region. As of late this evening, there were approximately 180,000 without power in Massachusetts with 494,000 without power in Connecticut and 47,000 without power in New Hampshire.

As stated in the headlines, realizing that many folks who may provide pictures and data are still without power, it is reminded that even pictures and damage info given days after the incident can be very useful in understanding the extent of damage and providing a historical record for such an anomalous event. Any pictures that would be shared with the media, emergency management and NWS officials can be sent to pics@nsradio.org and credit will be given to the spotter who provided the pictures unless otherwise indicated.

On behalf of the entire SKYWARN coordinator team and the National Weather Service forecast staff, we would like to extend our sincere appreciation and thanks to all the NWS Taunton area SKYWARN spotters and Amateur Radio Operators who provided us with valuable situational awareness data during this past October Nor’easter. There was not a moment during the 18 hour formal operations that we did not receive critical information from you folks. That information was of immeasurable value to all of our partners (i.e. the National Weather Service, the media, local, state and federal emergency management and all of our non-governmental organizations – Red Cross, Salvation Army, hospitals, Medical Reserve Corps, etc). This has been quite an active severe weather year, with the June 1st tornado outbreak, Hurricane/Tropical Storm Irene, and now the October Nor’easter, not to mention the “normal” severe weather events we experienced. It is gratifying to see how well the training we go through pays off. We do not say Thank You enough to all of you for your support. We hear it from the NWS staff and the media all of the time, because we are right here with them, but that does not often get passed on to you folks – at least not often enough. THANK YOU!  THANK YOU! THANK YOU!

Another post storm coordination message will follow either Friday or Saturday. Web site resources that those with power can share with those that don’t have power are listed below to keep those ‘in the dark’ situationally aware of what is happening as far as restoration efforts are listed below:

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report (Damage Reports):
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/lsr_10_30_11.txt

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement (Snowfall and Wind Gust Reports):
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/pns_10_30_11.txt

Connecticut Power and light (CL&P) Outage Map:
http://outage.cl-p.com/outage/outagemap.aspx

Public Service of New Hampshire (PSNH) Power Outage Map:
http://www.psnh.com/PowerOutagesStorms/Home/Storm-Updates.aspx

Western Massachusetts Electric Company (WMECO) Outage Map:
http://www.wmeco.com/outage/

National Grid Outage Map:
http://http://www1.nationalgridus.com/masselectric/stormcenter/

CT-211 Web Site:
http://www.211ct.org/referweb/landing.aspx

ARRL Web Story – Amateurs Assist with Communications in Aftermath of Rare October Nor’easter:
http://www.arrl.org/news/amateurs-assist-with-communications-in-aftermath-of-rare-october-nor-easter

Matt Noyes: Can We Expect Long Power Outages Again?
http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/2011/10/as-power-outages-continue-we-ask-should-such-long-outages-happen-and-can-we-expect-it-again.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

..Power slowly being restored across areas of New England hard hit by the historic and anomalous major nor’easter winter storm that severely impacted Western, Central and Northeast Massachusetts, Southern New Hampshire and Connecticut..
..ARES/RACES/MARS and EMCOMM groups continue to monitor the situation closely in case support is needed..
..Federal disaster declarations are in the works for the hardest hit areas of the New England states..
..Realizing that many folks who may provide pictures and data are still without power, it is reminded that even pictures and damage info given days after the incident can be very useful in understanding the extent of damage and providing a historical record for such an anomalous event. Any pictures that would be shared with the media, emergency management and NWS officials can be sent to pics@nsradio.org and credit will be given to the spotter who provided the pictures unless otherwise indicated..
..We extend a tremendous appreciation to all of our SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators that provided reports, pictures and video for this major storm and throughout the entire 2011 year which has been historic in terms of significant weather events affecting the region. This appreciation is detailed further in this coordination message..
..Another post storm coordination message will follow late Wednesday Evening or Thursday Morning. Web site resources that those with power can share with those that don’t have power are listed below to keep those ‘in the dark’ situationally aware of what is happening as far as restoration efforts..

The Major Nor’easter of October 29th-30th has caused major impact to the region. Power outages remain widespread though are being reduced gradually across the region. As of early this morning, there were approximately 355,000 without power in Massachusetts with 675,000 without power in Connecticut and 137,000 without power in New Hampshire.

As stated in the headlines, realizing that many folks who may provide pictures and data are still without power, it is reminded that even pictures and damage info given days after the incident can be very useful in understanding the extent of damage and providing a historical record for such an anomalous event. Any pictures that would be shared with the media, emergency management and NWS officials can be sent to pics@nsradio.org and credit will be given to the spotter who provided the pictures unless otherwise indicated.

On behalf of the entire SKYWARN coordinator team and the National Weather Service forecast staff, we would like to extend our sincere appreciation and thanks to all the NWS Taunton area SKYWARN spotters and Amateur Radio Operators who provided us with valuable situational awareness data during this past October Nor’easter. There was not a moment during the 18 hour formal operations that we did not receive critical information from you folks. That information was of immeasurable value to all of our partners (i.e. the National Weather Service, the media, local, state and federal emergency management and all of our non-governmental organizations – Red Cross, Salvation Army, hospitals, Medical Reserve Corps, etc). This has been quite an active severe weather year, with the June 1st tornado outbreak, Hurricane/Tropical Storm Irene, and now the October Nor’easter, not to mention the “normal” severe weather events we experienced. It is gratifying to see how well the training we go through pays off. We do not say Thank You enough to all of you for your support. We hear it from the NWS staff and the media all of the time, because we are right here with them, but that does not often get passed on to you folks – at least not often enough. THANK YOU!  THANK YOU! THANK YOU!

Another post storm coordination message will follow late Wednesday Evening or Thursday Morning. Web site resources that those with power can share with those that don’t have power are listed below to keep those ‘in the dark’ situationally aware of what is happening as far as restoration efforts are listed below:

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report (Damage Reports):
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/lsr_10_30_11.txt

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement (Snowfall and Wind Gust Reports):
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/pns_10_30_11.txt

Connecticut Power and light (CL&P) Outage Map:
http://outage.cl-p.com/outage/outagemap.aspx

Public Service of New Hampshire (PSNH) Power Outage Map:
http://www.psnh.com/PowerOutagesStorms/Home/Storm-Updates.aspx

Western Massachusetts Electric Company (WMECO) Outage Map:
http://www.wmeco.com/outage/

National Grid Outage Map:
http://http://www1.nationalgridus.com/masselectric/stormcenter/

CT-211 Web Site:
http://www.211ct.org/referweb/landing.aspx

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

..This message is a brief post historic major nor’easter coordination message. At the time of this message writing, about 660,000 customers were without power in Massachusetts and around 700,000 in Connecticut and over 200,000 in New Hampshire bringing the impact in Southern New England to over 1.5 million people without power..
..Widespread tree and wire damage with heavy elevation snows ranged from 12-24″ with isolated 30″+ amounts occurred. Winds at the coast gusted to almost 70 MPH across Cape Cod and the Islands..
..ARES/RACES/MARS and EMCOMM groups continue to monitor the situation closely in case support is needed..
..Realizing that many folks who may provide pictures and data maybe without power. It is reminded that even pictures and damage info given days after the incident can be very useful in understanding the extent of damage and providing a historical record for such an anomalous event. Any pictures that would be shared with the media, emergency management and NWS officials can be sent to pics@nsradio.org and credit will be given to the spotter who provided the pictures unless otherwise indicated..
..Another post storm coordination message will follow later this week. Below is the NWS Taunton Local Storm Report and Public Information Statement given on storm impact..

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nwus51.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nous41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

..Historic Nor’easter will require significant reporting of meteorological conditions and damage reports to provide situational awareness and disaster intelligence to the National Weather Service, Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs), Emergency Management officials at the local, state and federal level and the media..
..This can come in the form of report updates sent over Amateur Radio, email, webform and spotter line. It can also come in the form of pictures and video updates which can be sent to the pics at nsradio.org email address. Credit will be given to the spotter that took the pictures and video and will be forwarded to media, NWS and emergency management officials unless otherwise specified by the spotter..

As has been done in other major events this year including Tropical Storm/Hurricane Irene, the June 1st, 2011 Tornado Outbreak and blizzards this winter, the SKYWARN Spotter reports of rainfall, snowfall, damage from wind and/or precipitation, river/stream/urban/coastal flooding are very critical to providing situational awareness to emergency management officials at all levels, NGOs and the media. Once again, we ask folks to provide reports based on the SKYWARN reporting criteria. Amateur Operators and SKYWARN Spotters that work in public safety can also provide reports from their location and surrounding areas that can help paint the picture of how bad the storm is helping the warning and response/recovery process.

Where possible, we also ask for pictures and video of damage and to raise awareness of what the sensible conditions in that manner as well. Please send these pictures and video as attachments (if under 8 Meg) or links to the pictures and video that can be easily emailed to the pics at nsradio.org email address like what was done during Irene. This is the fastest way to get the information disseminated to all appropraite folks. Credit will be given to the spotter that took the pictures and video as its forwarded to emergency management, media and NWS officials unless otherwise specified in the email.

For Amateur Radio Operators, a complete list of SKYWARN frequencies can be found at the wx1box.org web site, via the following link:

http://beta.wx1box.org/node/1453

We look forward to working with everyone in this potential significant storm event. Thanks to all for their support!

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

Read more

Hello to all..

..Anomalous and Historic Major Early Season Nor’easter taking aim on Southern New England. The most significant threat is for heavy wet snow and strong winds causing tree and power line damage in interior Southern New England but heavy rain, strong to damaging winds and coastal flood potential will affect coastal Southern New England. Preparations, particularly in interior Southern New England but also in coastal areas, for potential tree and wire damage and power outages should be completed by late Saturday Afternoon..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect for Northern Connecticut, Western and Central Massachusetts including Northern Middlesex County Massachusetts and Southern New Hampshire for 6-12″ of wet snow with highest amounts in the higher elevations of the warning area where a few locations could exceed 12″. This has the potential to produce widespread tree and power line damage and power outages over a portion of the warning area between the wet snow and strong winds that could gust between 25 and 45 MPH with stronger wind gusts in the southern and eastern portions of the warning area and in the higher elevations..
..A Winter Storm Warning is in effect from 6 PM this evening through 8 AM Sunday for Central Middlesex, Western Essex Counties of Massachusetts and Northwest Providence County RI for 4-6″ of heavy wet snow and strong winds which will result in tree and power line damage and an area of widespread power outages. Winds could be sustained at 25-35 MPH with gusts up to 50-55 MPH..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 6 PM This Evening to 8 AM Sunday for 2-5″ of heavy wet snow and pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages for Western Norfolk, Southeast Middlesex County, Northern Bristol County of Massachusetts and Southeast Providence County Rhode Island..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 6 PM this evening through 8 AM Sunday for the North Shore of Massachusetts, the Greater Boston Metro area, Eastern Norfolk County, and the remainder of Rhode Island and the South Coast of Massachusetts to the Cape Cod Canal for 1-4″ of snow and strong winds causing pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages..
..Areas outside of the Winter Storm Warning area and in the Winter Weather Advisory area may receive heavy rainfall around or in excess of 2″ leading to possible urban and poor drainage flooding in those locations and rivers and streams rising to bankful. A Flood Watch or Flood Advisories for urban and poor draiange areas could be issued for some of these areas as we get closer to the event..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 2 PM Saturday Afternoon through 8 AM Sunday for Cape Cod and the Islands for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts up to 70 MPH..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 8 PM this evening through 8 AM Sunday for all of Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts except for Central and Northern Middlesex Counties, and Western Essex County of Massachusetts and Northwest Providence County Rhode Island for sustained winds 20-30 MPH with gusts to 55-60 MPH..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect from 10 AM to 5 PM today for the Saturday Afternoon high tide. Winds will begin to increase out of the East and Northeast and this with a high astronomical high tide may result in some minor shore road flooding in the flood prone coastal areas. A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect from 11 PM Saturday Evening through 5 AM Sunday Morning for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands. The late Saturday Evening to Sunday Morning high tide could result in moderate coastal flooding along poritons of the Coastal Flood Warning area..
..SKYWARN Activation with Amateur Radio Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 400 PM EDT Saturday with overnight operations through Sunday Morning also likely..
..ARES/RACES/MARS and other EMCOMM groups in the Winter Storm Warning area in particular but also in the Winter Weather Advisory/Coastal Flood Warning and High Wind Warning areas should closely monitor the progress of this potentially significant, anomalous, historic early season major nor’easter/winter storm and seek advice from their local leadership..

There remains high confidence in a major early season and anomalous nor’easter storm that will bring heavy wet snow to the interior, heavy rainfall to the coast, strong to damaging winds especially along coastal areas and coastal flooding along the east coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and Islands region. Model runs continue to converge on this solution and have increased the amount of precipitation over the region and have gotten a bit colder with the latest runs. The headlines of this coordination message detail the threats for each area well. Some details that could affect the forecast.

1.) Latest model runs have resulted in colder temperatures further east reesulting in the Winter Storm Warning being posted for some of the Winter Storm Watch areas from last night and Winter Weather Advisories brought down through the Boston to Providence area and coastal locations. It is noted that a storm track difference of as little as 30-50 miles could impact the storm conditions over the area. 30-50 miles further west, and the heaviest snow is further west into western portions of the warning area with mostly rain in the east. A track 30-50 miles further east would result in more snow further east. This is within the resolution of the models and can depend on other mesoscale factors so there still could be some fluctations in what’s expected particularly in the Metro Boston and Providence areas as well as along coastal locations.

2.) There is likely a zone within the Winter Storm Warning area of heavy snowfall with high water content that will result in extensive tree and power line damage and potential for widespread power outages. That zone within the warning area will be tough to determine and depend on mesoscale conditions that include the cooling of the ground, the heaviest precipitation, strongest winds and temperature. Also, the speed with which rain changes over to snow across the area and the elevation dependency will cause variations in snowfall amounts.

3.) Where this is a nor’easter in October and it is quite anomalous in terms of having a heavy snowfall event during this month, the nature of such an event may sound unlikely and can lead to less preparation and lower forecaster confidence. That said, there is multiple model agreement on this solution so it needs to be prepared for accordingly. There will be some mesoscale or short-term storm effects that the weather models will not pick up on that will probably need to be addressed as the storm unfolds over the region but the overall event seems likely based on multi-model run agreement and consensus of the models and this has the potential to be a high impact event for the region.

People in the Winter Storm Warning area in particular but also in the Winter Weather Advisory/Coastal Flood Warning/High Wind Warning areas should prepare for the potential of power outages. Having batteries and alternate power sources ready prior to late Saturday Afternoon for this storm would be advisable. If power isn’t lost in this event, you will be prepared for the next potential incident that results in power loss. Also, since this is an unusually early winter storm event, please be mindful of winter storm safety tips as listed below from last year’s NWS Taunton Winter Weather Awareness Week Statements and the NOAA Winter Preparedness Guide:

http://beta.wx1box.org/local/winter_safety.txt
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/winterstorm/winterstorms.pdf

SKYWARN Activation with Amateur Radio Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 400 PM EDT Saturday with overnight operations through Sunday Morning also likely. ARES/RACES/MARS and other EMCOMM groups in the Winter Storm Warning area in particular but also in the Winter Weather Advisory/Coastal Flood Warning and High Wind Warning areas should closely monitor the progress of this potentially significant, anomalous, historic early season major nor’easter/winter storm and seek advice from their local leadership.

This will likely be the last coordination message on this event. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Warning/Advisory Statement, High Wind Warning Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Warning/Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Wind Warning Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator         
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

Read more

Hello to all..

..Anomalous Major Early Season Nor’easter taking aim on Southern New England. The most significant threat is for heavy wet snow and strong winds causing tree and power line damage in interior Southern New England but heavy rain, strong to damaging winds and coastal flood potential will affect coastal Southern New England. Preparations, particularly in interior Southern New England but also in coastal areas, for potential tree and wire damage and power outages should be completed by late Saturday Afternoon..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect for Northern Connecticut, Western and Central Massachusetts including Northern Middlesex County Massachusetts and Southern New Hampshire for 6-12″ of wet snow with highest amounts in the higher elevations of the warning area. This has the potential to produce widespread tree and power line damage and power outages over a portion of the warning area between the wet snow and strong winds that could gust between 25 and 45 MPH with stronger wind gusts in the southern and eastern portions of the warning area and in the higher elevations..
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Saturday Afternoon through Sunday Morning for Central Middlesex, Western Essex, Western Norfolk, and Northern Bristol Counties of Massachusetts and Providence County RI. 2-6″ of snow is possible in the Winter Storm Watch area and higher amounts of 6″ or more remain uncertain for this part of the region..
..Areas outside of the Winter Storm Warning/Watch area may receive heavy rainfall around or in excess of 2″ leading to possible urban and poor drainage flooding in those locations and rivers and streams rising to bankful..
..A High Wind Watch is in effect for Saturday Afternoon through Sunday Morning for Cape Cod and the Islands and Saturday Evening through Sunday Morning for Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts up to 60 MPH particularly in coastal locations..
..A Coastal Flood Watch is in effect for Saturday Evening through late Saturday Night for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands for the late Saturday Evening high tide cycle. A Coastal Flood Advisory may be required for the Saturday Afternoon high tide cycle for minor coastal flooding during that high tide cycle..
..SKYWARN Activation with Amateur Radio Ops at NWS Taunton are likely starting around 400 PM EDT Saturday with overnight operations through Sunday Morning also likely. The start time will be fine tuned further between now and Saturday Morning..
..ARES/RACES/MARS and other EMCOMM groups in the Winter Storm Warning/Watch in particular but also in the Coastal Flood Watch and High Wind Watch areas should closely monitor the progress of this potentially significant, anomalous early season major nor’easter/winter storm and seek advice from their local leadership..

Confidence continues to grow in a major early season and anomalous nor’easter storm that will bring heavy wet snow to the interior, heavy rainfall to the coast, strong to damaging winds especially along coastal areas and coastal flooding along the east coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and Islands region. Model runs continue to converge on this solution and have increased the amount of precipitation over the region as well. The headlines of this coordination message detail the threats for each area well. A few details that have yet to be determined that will be fine tuned over the next 12 to 24 hours include:

1.) A storm track difference of as little as 30-50 miles could impact the storm conditions over the area. 30-50 miles further west, and the heaviest snow is further west into western portions of the warning area with mostly rain in the east. A track 30-50 miles further east would result in more snow further east and extending into the Winter Storm Watch area.

2.) There is likely a zone within the Winter Storm Warning area of heavy snowfall with high water content that will result in extensive tree and power line damage and potential for widespread power outages. That zone within the warning area will be tough to determine and depend on mesoscale conditions that include the cooling of the ground, the heaviest precipitation, strongest winds and temperature.

3.) Where this is a nor’easter in October and it is quite anomalous in terms of having a heavy snowfall event during this month, the nature of such an event may sound unlikely and can lead to less preparation and lower forecaster confidence. That said, there is multiple model agreement on this solution so it needs to be prepared for accordingly. There will be some mesoscale or short-term storm effects that the weather models will not pick up on that will probably need to be addressed as the storm unfolds over the region but the overall event seems likely based on multi-model run agreement and consensus of the models.

People in the Winter Storm Watch/Warning area should prepare for the potential of power outages. Having batteries and alternate power sources ready prior to late Saturday Afternoon for this storm would be advisable. If power isn’t lost in this event, you will be prepared for the next potential incident that results in power loss. Also, since this is an unusually early winter storm event, please be mindful of winter storm safety tips as listed below from last year’s NWS Taunton Winter Weather Awareness Week Statements and the NOAA Winter Preparedness Guide:

http://beta.wx1box.org/local/winter_safety.txt
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/winterstorm/winterstorms.pdf

SKYWARN Activation with Amateur Radio Ops at NWS Taunton are likely starting around 400 PM EDT Saturday with overnight operations through Sunday Morning also likely. The start time will be fine tuned further between now and Saturday Morning. ARES/RACES/MARS and other EMCOMM groups in the Winter Storm Warning/Watch in particular but also in the Coastal Flood Watch and High Wind Watch areas should closely monitor the progress of this potentially significant, anomalous early season major nor’easter/winter storm and seek advice from their local leadership.

The next coordination message will be sent by 1230 PM Saturday. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Watch Statement, Coastal Flood Watch Statement, High Wind Watch Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Wind Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator        
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

Read more

Hello to all..

..Anomalous Major Early Season Nor’easter with the potential for heavy wet snow and tree and wire damage for much of interior Southern New England along with strong winds with heavy rain, strong to damaging winds and potential coastal flood issues in Southeast New England from the Boston to Providence corridor south and east through Cape Cod and the Islands. Confidence is growing on a potentially significant major nor’easter event..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from Saturday Afternoon through Sunday Morning for Northern Connecticut, Western, Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts, Providence County Rhode Island and Cheshire and Hillsborough Counties of New Hampshire due to heavy snow accumulations or snowfall impact that is greater than normal due to its heavy, wet nature and foiliage on the trees coupled with strong winds..
..Minor Coastal Flooding is possible at the time of high tide on Saturday Afternoon with the potential of Minor to Moderate Coastal Flooding for the Saturday Evening high tide over East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands. A Coastal Flood Watch will likely be issued for these tide cycles later today..
..Strong to Damaging winds will also be possible across East and South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Heavy Rainfall with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding and rivers and streams rising to bankful are possible over Southeast New England along and southeast of the Boston to Providence corridor..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely starting around 2-4 PM EDT Saturday with overnight operations through Sunday Morning also likely. The start time will be fine tuned between now and Saturday Morning..
..ARES/RACES/MARS and other EMCOMM groups in the Winter Storm Watch area and even outside of the Winter Storm Watch area should closely monitor the progress of this potentially significant, anomalous early season major nor’easter/winter storm and seek advice from their local leadership..

Weather models are now in very good agreement on potentially major impact from a significant major nor’easter/early season winter storm for much of interior Southern New England. East and Southeast coastal areas will see strong to damaging winds, heavy rainfall and the potential for minor coastal flooding on the Saturday Afternoon high tide with minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of the late Saturday Evening high tide. Exact details will become better defined based on future model runs as we get closer to this potentially major event.

A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from Saturday Afternoon through Sunday Morning for Northern Connecticut, Western, Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts, Providence County Rhode Island and Cheshire and Hillsborough Counties of New Hampshire due to heavy snow accumulations or snowfall impact that is greater than normal due to its heavy, wet nature and foiliage on the trees coupled with strong winds. Snow accumulations of at least 2-5″ are likely. Higher amounts potentially greater than 6″ are also a threat and it is likely to see stated snowfall amounts increase a bit in future statements and weather forecasts as future model runs lend greater confidence to the heavy snow potential. The snowfall is expected across all elevations with the higher elevations receiving the highest amounts. Snowfall of just 3″ due to its heavy and wet content along with foiliage on the trees will likely cause at least isolated tree and wire damage and power outages. Snowfall of 6″ or more would increase the impact further and this is becoming more likely. Strong winds will affect portions of the Winter Storm Watch area with wind gusts up to 20-30 MPH possible. With the heavy, wet snow and wind gusts up to 30 MPH, this could exacerbate any potential damage to trees and wires.

Due to high astronomical tides and northeast fetch, Minor Coastal Flooding is possible at the time of the Saturday Afternoon high tide along East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands. As winds increase into Saturday Evening, this will increase the threat for coastal flooding with minor to moderate coastal flooding possible at the time of high tide late Saturday Evening for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands. A Coastal Flood Watch will likely be issued for this potential later today.

Areas outside of the Winter Storm Watch area and especially along and southeast of the Boston to Providence line will likely experience heavy rainfall with rain amounts approaching and possibly exceeding 2″. This could result in urban and poor drainage flooding as well as rivers and streams rising to bankful. Strong to damaging winds will also be possible along East and South Coastal Massachusetts as well as Cape Cod and the Islands and a High Wind Watch could be issued for portions of the area later today.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely starting around 2-4 PM EDT Saturday with overnight operations through Sunday Morning also likely. The start time will be fine tuned between now and Saturday Morning. ARES/RACES/MARS and other EMCOMM groups in the Winter Storm Watch area and even outside of the Winter Storm Watch area should closely monitor the progress of this potentially significant, anomalous early season major nor’easter/winter storm and seek advice from their local leadership.

The next coordination message will be sent by 9 PM ET today. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator       
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

..Minor Coastal Flooding occurred in parts of the North Shore at the midday high tide. Rain is mixing with wet snow over portions of Northwest Massachusetts and Southwest New Hampshire..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect Cheshire, and West-Central Hillsborough Counties of New Hampshire as well as Franklin, Northern Worcester and Nortehrn Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts until 11 PM tonight for 1-3″ of wet snow with isolated 4″ amounts. Most accumulations will occur at elevations around or above 1000 feet. Areas outside of the advisory area may see some rain/wet snow mix but little to no accumulation is expected..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will be utilized to monitor rain changing over to snow and any snowfall amounts in the higher elevations..
..A larger, more potent early season nor’easter will impact the region Saturday Afternoon and especially Saturday Night. This could bring a heavy wet snow to many interior locations and due to trees still having foiliage on them this could lead to a threat for tree and power line damage. Storm coordination messages with more details on this threat will be posted during the day on Friday. SKYWARN Spotters, Amateur Radio Operators and ARES/RACES and other EMCOMM groups should begin monitoring the progress of this potential early season winter-like nor’easter..
..This will likely be the last coordination message for the Thursday storm system. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator       
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

..Storm System starting to affect Southern New England Thursday Morning through Friday Morning with a decent rainfall, potential for some snowfall accumulations in Northwest Massachusetts and Southwest New Hampshire and perhaps even some snowflakes seen over much of Southern New England before precipitation ends along with the threat for Minor Coastal Flooding at the Thursday Midday high tide..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect from 9 AM to 2 PM EDT Thursday for East Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands..
..Snowfall in Northwest Massachusetts is currently expected to be 1-3″ of heavy and wet snow but will be contingent on the timing of the changeover in precipitation from rain to snow and the amount of precipitation that falls as snow along with the cooling of the ground in the evening hours. If amounts reach 2-3″ or higher, isolated pockets of tree and wire damage will be possible. This is particularly true in the higher elevations near or above 1000 feet..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible for the Thursday high tide cycle and then for snowfall late Thursday Afternoon through early Friday Morning. SKYWARN Self-Activation may also be utilized to cover the situation..

A storm system will affect the region Thursday Morning into Friday Morning. Precipitation will start as rain and could be heavy at times. About 1 to 1.5″ of rainfall with isolated higher amounts is possible.

As we get into Thursday Evening, possibly as early as the evening rush hour in Southern New Hampshire and Northwest Massachusetts, rain could change to a heavy wet snow. At this time, 1-3″ of snow is expected. With trees having foiliage on them in some areas and the weight of the heavy wet snow, there is potential for isolated pockets of tree and wire damage. This is particularly true in the higher elevations near or above 1000 feet. This potential would rise significantly if more of the precipitation falls as that heavy, wet snow and that will need close monitoring. The current scenario, however, is for 1-3″ of heavy and wet snow. Wet snowflakes may be seen all the way through interior Southeast Massachusetts and Rhode Island before the precipitation ends late Thursday Night but this will again depend on how much cold air seeps into the region. No accumulation is expected outside of Southwest New Hampshire and Northwest Massachusetts.

The other potential threat from the storm system is minor coastal flooding at the time of the midday Thursday high tide. A significant storm surge is not expected but with high astronomical tides and the onshore Northeast flow, minor coastal flooding will be possible with the impact to shore roads along the east coast of Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect from 9 AM to 2 PM Thursday to cover this potential for minor coastal flooding midday Thursday.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Thursday for the coastal flood potential and rain changing over to snow late Thursday Afternoon through early Friday Morning. This may also be handled through SKYWARN Self-Activation. This will be the last message on this situation unless Ops at NWS Taunton occur then if time allows a shortened coordination message will be sent. Below is the NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator        
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

..Storm System will affect Southern New England Thursday Morning through Friday Morning with a decent rainfall, potential for some snowfall accumulations in Northwest Massachusetts and Southwest New Hampshire and perhaps even some snowflakes seen over much of Southern New England before precipitation ends along with the threat for Minor Coastal Flooding at the Thursday Midday high tide..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect from 9 AM to 2 PM EDT Thursday for East Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands..
..Snowfall in Northwest Massachusetts is currently expected to be 1-3″ of heavy and wet snow but will be contingent on the timing of the changeover in precipitation from rain to snow and the amount of precipitation that falls as snow. If amounts reach 2-3″ or higher, isolated pockets of tree and wire damage will be possible. This is particularly true in the higher elevations..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible for the Thursday high tide cycle and then for snowfall late Thursday Afternoon through early Friday Morning..

A storm system will affect the region Thursday Morning into Friday Morning. Precipitation will start as rain and could be heavy at times. About 1 to 1.5″ of rainfall with isolated higher amounts is possible.

As we get into Thursday Evening, possibly as early as the evening rush hour in Southern New Hampshire and Northwest Massachusetts, rain could change to a heavy wet snow. At this time, 1-3″ of snow is expected. With trees having foiliage on them in some areas and the weight of the heavy wet snow, there is potential for isolated pockets of tree and wire damage. This is particularly true in the higher elevations. This potential would rise significantly if more of the precipitation falls as that heavy, wet snow and that will need close monitoring. The current scenario, however, is for 1-3″ of heavy and wet snow. Wet snowflakes may be seen all the way through Southeast Massachusetts and Rhode Island before the rain ends late Thursday Night but this will again depend on how much cold air seeps into the region. No accumulation is expected outside of Southwest New Hampshire and Northwest Massachusetts.

The other potential threat from the storm system is minor coastal flooding at the time of the midday Thursday high tide. A significant storm surge is not expected but with high astronomical tides and the onshore Northeast flow, minor coastal flooding will be possible with the impact to shore roads along the east coast of Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect from 9 AM to 2 PM Thursday to cover this potential for minor coastal flooding midday Thursday.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Thursday for the coastal flood potential and rain changing over to snow late Thursday Afternoon through early Friday Morning. Another coordination message will be posted by 9 AM Thursday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator       
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

Read more