Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible in portions of Eastern Massachusetts for late Saturday Afternoon through Saturday Night timeframe in roughly the 5 PM-11 PM EDT Saturday timeframe. Strong to damaging winds are the main threat in and around any thunderstorms as a strengthening low pressure system tracks over Southern New England. Brief heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding is a secondary concern..
..Wind gusts of 30-45 MPH outside of any convection with isolated higher gusts is also possible across coastal Southern New England. These wind gusts may slow power restoration efforts from the mid-week major nor’easter and may result in some new power outages and tree and wire damage in areas that experience the strongest winds or isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather/strong wind potential for late Saturday Afternoon through Saturday Night. This will be the only coordination message on this weather event unless another upgrade to the situation occurs and time allows for an update..

..Post Storm Coordination Message on the major nor’easter that affected the region Tuesday Night 10/26/21-Wednesdsay Night 10/27/21 will be posted later today as time permits as we monitor the potential for strong winds and isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in Eastern Massachusetts for late Saturday Afternoon into Saturday Night. Storm photos can be sent as a reply to this message via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feed and via the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. We are currently working on coalescing all the storm damage photos for upload into a WX1BOX Facebook Album. Many thanks to many of you have submitted your storm damage photos, reports, and videos during and after this significant storm system…

..Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day1otlk_20211030_1630.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Hello to all…

..Major Nor’easter slams Eastern Massachusetts, particularly Southeast Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands and the Cape Ann area as well as Southern and Central Rhode Island with widespread damaging winds, tree and power line damage and some direct structural damage to weakened structures. Wind gusts to hurricane force between 74-94 MPH occurred Across East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands with 50-70 MPH Gusts across portions of Southeast Massachusetts and South-Central RI..
..At the height of the storm, close to 500,000 customers were without power in Massachusetts and over 93,000 customers without power in Rhode Island. These outages were much higher than Tropical Storm Henri in August in Massachusetts and a bit higher than Tropical Storm Henri for the state of Rhode Island..
..Post storm reports, pictures and videos of storm damage, coastal flooding, flooding from heavy rainfall can be sent as a reply to this message, via our Facebook and Twitter feeds or via the email address pics@nsradio.org. Credit will be given to the spotter for their photo, video or report unless otherwise indicated..
..Another post storm coordination message will be posted either Thursday Night or Friday Morning. ARES groups in Eastern Massachusetts should stay in contact with local leadership as Cape Cod ARES is active supporting county operations and further info on a rough length for their activity will be known later tonight with updates to follow by Thursday. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Public Information Statement of Rainfall/Wind Report, Local Storm Report and the abridged Amateur Radio Compilation log of wind gusts and wind damage..

NWS Boston/Norton Public Information Statement – Spotter Reports:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2110271733.nous41.html

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2110270912.nwus51.html

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/reports_10_26_21_10_27_21_Rev_1.pdf

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Powerful coastal storm on track for significant impacts of heavy rainfall and the potential for urban, poor drainage, river and stream flooding to flash flooding across much of Southern New England, damaging winds across Central and Eastern Massachusetts, Northeast Connecticut and Rhode Island and minor coastal flooding across multiple high tide cycles across East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 2 PM Tuesday Afternoon to 2 PM Wednesday Afternoon for Cape Cod and the Islands and Eastern Plymouth County Massachusetts for sustained winds of 35-45 MPH with gusts to 70 MPH likely and isolated higher wind gusts to hurricane force possible causing scattered to numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages across this area..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 2 PM Tuesday Afternoon to 2 PM Wednesday Afternoon for Eastern Essex, Southeast Middlesex, Norfolk, Bristol, Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts, Bristol, Newport, and Washington Counties of Rhode Island for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH likely and isolated higher gusts possible. These winds will cause scattered to numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages across the area..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 6 PM Tuesday Evening to 2 PM Wednesday Afternoon for Windham County Connecticut, Providence and Kent Counties Rhode Island, and Southern Worcester, Central Middlesex and Western Essex Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 45-50 MPH with isolated higher gusts possible. These winds will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages across the area..
..A Flood Watch is now in effect from 2 AM Tuesday through Wednesday Evening for all of the NWS Norton coverage area except for Western Franklin County Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands for 3-6″ of rainfall with isolated higher amounts and the potential for urban, poor drainage, river and stream flooding..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from 3 AM-7 AM Wednesday Morning and 3 PM-7 PM Wednesday Evening for Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk, Eastern Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes and Nantucket Counties for minor shore road flooding and significant beach erosion at the time of these high tide cycles across the region..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the significant coastal storm potential for Tuesday into Wednesday. ARES/RACES groups should closely monitor the progress of this system and seek advice from local leadership. Pictures of storm damage, river, stream, urban and coastal flooding can be sent to the email address pics@nsradio.org, or via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds as well as a reply to this message..

After a relatively quiet stretch of weather, a powerful coastal storm is on track to take aim on Southern New England Tuesday Morning into Wednesday Afternoon. The headlines depict the current thinking with an upgrade to High Wind Watches to High Wind Warnings and the addition of Wind and Coastal Flood Advisories. Key factors include:

1.) How close the coastal storm approaches. Model guidance shows solutions ranging south of Long Island through south of the Cape and Islands and the current model blend supports the current headlines particularly when it comes to the strong to damaging wind and flood potential. The wind damage potential across Eastern New England will bear close monitoring throughout the storm event.
2.) Heavy rainfall of 3-6″ with scattered higher amounts are likely across much of Southern New England. The axis of heaviest rain within the region will depend on the track, speed and intensity of the coastal storm. The heavy rainfall is likely to cause urban and poor drainage flooding with some river and stream flooding in areas where the rainfall is heaviest.
3.) While the tidal cycle is not astronomically high, the coastal storm track and slow speed of motion while intensifying could allow for multiple high tide cycles of minor coastal flooding centered on the tide cycles for Wednesday.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the significant coastal storm potential Tuesday into Wednesday. ARES/RACES groups should closely monitor the progress of this system and seek advice from local leadership. Pictures of storm damage, river, stream, urban and coastal flooding can be sent to the email address pics@nsradio.org, or via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds as well as a reply to this message.. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 AM EDT Tuesday Morning if operations are not fully active for heavy rainfall currently occuring over Cape Cod and Southeast coastal New England. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement, Flood Watch Statement, Coastal Flood Advisory Statement, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and Area Forecast Discussion, Rainfall Map and Wind Gust Table:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Rainfall Map:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Rainfall-Graphic.png

NWS Boston/Norton Wind Gust Table:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Peak-Wind-Gusts-Graphic.png

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Powerful coastal storm will have the potential for significant impacts of significant rainfall and the potential for urban, poor drainage, river and stream flooding to flash flooding across all of Southern New England, damaging winds across Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island and minor coastal flooding across multiple high tide cycles across East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands..
..A High Wind Watch is now in effect for Tuesday Morning through Wednesday Afternoon for all of Rhode Island, Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Southeast Middlesex, Norfolk, Bristol, Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes and Nantucket Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH and isolated higher wind gusts possible. These winds with fully leaved trees and heavy rainfall and wet conditions will have the potential to cause scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered power outages..
..Additional watches and warnings may be required as we get closer to this powerful coastal storm event..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the significant coastal storm potential for Tuesday into Wednesday..

After a relatively quiet stretch of weather, a powerful coastal storm will take aim on Southern New England Tuesday Morning into Wednesday Afternoon. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) How close the coastal storm approaches. This will depict how far inland strong to damaging winds will occur and also if even stronger winds will occur in coastal areas if the storm track is closer.
2.) Heavy rainfall of 3-6″ with scattered higher amounts are likely across much of Southern New England. The axis of heaviest rain within the region will depend on the track, speed and intensity of the coastal storm.
3.) While the tidal cycle is not astronomically high, the coastal storm track and slow speed of motion while intensifying could allow for multiple high tide cycles of coastal flooding. This will become better defined in future outlooks.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the significant coastal storm potential Tuesday into Wednesday. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 PM EDT Monday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Watch Statement, Flood Watch Statement, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and Area Forecast Discussion, Rainfall Map and Wind Gust Map:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Rainfall Map:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Storm-Total-Rainfall.png

NWS Boston/Norton Wind Gust Map:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Peak-Wind-Gusts.png

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Powerful coastal storm will have the potential for significant impacts of significant rainfall and the potential for urban, poor drainage, river and stream flooding to flash flooding across all of Southern New England, damaging winds across Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island and minor coastal flooding across multiple high tide cycles across East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands..
..A High Wind Watch is now in effect for Tuesday Morning through Wednesday Afternoon for all of Rhode Island, Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Southeast Middlesex, Norfolk, Bristol, Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes and Nantucket Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH and isolated higher wind gusts possible. These winds with fully leaved trees and heavy rainfall and wet conditions will have the potential to cause scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered power outages..
..Additional watches and warnings may be required as we get closer to this powerful coastal storm event..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the significant coastal storm potential for Tuesday into Wednesday..

After a relatively quiet stretch of weather, a powerful coastal storm will take aim on Southern New England Tuesday Morning into Wednesday Afternoon. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) How close the coastal storm approaches. This will depict how far inland strong to damaging winds will occur and also if even stronger winds will occur in coastal areas if the storm track is closer.
2.) Heavy rainfall of 3-6″ with scattered higher amounts are likely across much of Southern New England. The axis of heaviest rain within the region will depend on the track, speed and intensity of the coastal storm.
3.) While the tidal cycle is not astronomically high, the coastal storm track and slow speed of motion while intensifying could allow for multiple high tide cycles of coastal flooding. This will become better defined in future outlooks.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the significant coastal storm potential Tuesday into Wednesday. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 AM EDT Monday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Watch Statement, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and Area Forecast Discussion, Rainfall Map and Wind Gust Map:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Rainfall Map:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Total_Rainfall.png

NWS Boston/Norton Wind Gust Map:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Max_Wind_Gusts.png

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Convective showers with gusty winds and isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Southern New England particularly interior locations. Strong to damaging winds is the primary threat with the secondary threats of heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding, hail and frequent lightning..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed all of Southern New England in a marginal risk of severe weather with a slight risk for severe weather in Berkshire County Mass to Litchfield and Fairfield Counties of Connecticut for Saturday late afternoon and evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather/strong wind potential for late Saturday Afternoon through Saturday Evening..

A strong cold front will be moving through Southern New England late Saturday Afternoon and evening with the potential of convective showers with isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds as the primary threat. The headlines depict the current thinking which shows a slight risk upgrade to areas just west of the NWS Boston/Norton coverage area. Key factors remain:

1.) Instability will be very limited but if instability is a bit more than forecast, it would increase the risk for isolated severe thunderstorms or stronger winds in convective showers.
2.) Wind profiles will be quite strong aloft with favorable jet dynamics and this can potentially compensate for very limited instability and allow for a period of strong to damaging winds with convective showers and isolated strong to severe thunderstorms.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather/strong wind potential for late Saturday Afternoon through Saturday Evening. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Convective showers with gusty winds and isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorms is possible across much of Southern New England particularly interior locations. Strong to damaging winds is the primary threat with the secondary threats of heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding, hail and frequent lightning. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed all of Southern New England in a marginal risk of severe weather for Saturday late afternoon and evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather/strong wind potential for late Saturday Afternoon through Saturday Evening..

A strong cold front will be moving through Southern New England late Saturday Afternoon and evening with the potential of convective showers with isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds as the primary threat. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Instability will be very limited but if instability is a bit more than forecast, it would increase the risk for isolated severe thunderstorms or stronger winds in convective showers.
2.) Wind profiles will be quite strong aloft with favorable jet dynamics and this can potentially compensate for very limited instability and allow for a period of strong to damaging winds with convective showers and isolated strong to severe thunderstorms.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather/strong wind potential for late Saturday Afternoon through Saturday Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 AM Saturday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20211015_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across much of Southern New England anytime after 4 AM Friday through 12 PM in Western New England with this potential moving eastward into Eastern New England after 12 PM..
..Strong to damaging winds, frequent lightning, heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats with an isolated tornado as a secondary threat. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..A Flash Flood Watch is in effect Midnight tonight through Friday Morning for Franklin, Hampshire and Hampden Counties of Massachusetts and Hartford County of Connecticut for 1-3 inches of rainfall with isolated higher amounts causing flooding of urban and poor drainage areas and possibly some small rivers and streams..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flash flood potential overnight into early Friday Evening..

A slow moving cold front will push its way through Southern New England overnight through Friday Evening. Warm and humid conditions are out ahead of this cold front. This will set the stage possible localized flash flooding and severe weather potential. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Ability of forcing along the cold front and sufficient wind shear values to compensate for limited instability to allow for heavy rainfall and isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development.
2.) If more instability is generated than expected, that would potentially increase the severe weather potential in the region.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flash flood potential overnight into early Friday Evening. This is likely to be the only coordination message on this severe weather potential as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210923_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..A Strong cold front will move through Southern New England Wednesday Afternoon through Thursday Morning bringing the potential for severe weather Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..
..Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely Wednesday Afternoon and Evening anytime after 3 PM through midnight particularly over Western and Northern Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut though areas as far east as the I-95 corridor of Southern New England should monitor. Strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats with an isolated tornado as a secondary threat..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued Western and Northern Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut with a slight expansion into Hartford CT to Worcester Mass. in a slight risk for severe weather and the rest of Southern New England from the I-95 corridor north and west in a marginal risk for severe weather for Wednesday and the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed much of Southern New England along, north and west of the I-95 corridor in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor any activity overnight Tuesday Night and particularly the severe weather potential for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..

Another round of potential severe weather is expected for Southern New England this Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:
1.) Timing of the cold front and strong dynamics into the region. This looks most favorable for the locations in a slight risk area for severe weather and particularly western and northern Massachusetts.
2.) How far south and east the severe weather potential extends pending on the timing of the cold front, forcing along the front as it moves southeast and the location of the strongest wind shear levels.
3.) The overall intensity of the strong to severe thunderstorms as if conditions line up and overlap favorably, this could be a fairly widespread severe weather event with fairly numerous pockets of wind damage in particular over the slight risk area of Western and Northern Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut. There is also a chance the most significant severe weather could stay further north into Northern New England with more isolated severe thunderstorms in Western and Northern Massachusetts and this will be watched through the day though current trends are shifting the potential slightly further south and east hence the expansion of the slight risk for severe weather.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=1

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..A Strong cold front will move through Southern New England Wednesday Afternoon through Thursday Morning bringing the potential for severe weather conditionally Tuesday Night with the focus and more potent severe weather potential Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..
..Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely Wednesday Afternoon and Evening anytime after 3 PM through midnight particularly over Western and Northern Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut though areas as far east as the I-95 corridor of Southern New England should monitor. Strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats with an isolated tornado as a secondary threat..
..A conditional threat for Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms is possible overnight Tuesday after midnight through 6 AM across Western and Northern Massachusetts..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western and Northern Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut in a slight risk for severe weather and the rest of Southern New England from the I-95 corridor north and west in a marginal risk for severe weather for Wednesday and the Weather Prediction Center has placed much of Southern New England along, north and west of the I-95 corridor in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor any activity overnight Tuesday Night and particularly the severe weather potential for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..

Another round of potential severe weather is expected for Southern New England. The severe weather potential overnight Tuesday Evening is very conditional and low risk but will need monitoring and will hinge on favorable instability and wind shear parameters and whether there is enough moisture or a trigger for any strong to severe thunderstorms to develop.

A more significant and potent severe weather event is likely for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening and the headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:
1.) Timing of the cold front and strong dynamics into the region. This looks most favorable for the locations in a slight risk area for severe weather and particularly western and northern Massachusetts.
2.) How far south and east the severe weather potential extends pending on the timing of the cold front and the location of the strongest wind shear levels.
3.) The overall intensity of the strong to severe thunderstorms as if conditions line up and overlap favorably, this could be a fairly widespread severe weather event with fairly numerous pockets of wind damage in particular over the slight risk area of Western and Northern Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor any activity overnight Tuesday Night and particularly the severe weather potential for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 AM Wednesday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=2

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210914_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box