Severe Weather/Heat Coordination Message #1 – Monday 7/15/24-Wednesday 7/18/24 – Severe Weather & Heat Wave Potential
Hello to all…
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible across much of interior Southern New England Monday Afternoon and Evening between 2-9 PM EDT. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather. There are additional chances for severe weather Tuesday and especially Wednesday of this week..
..Intense heat and humidity with a heat wave is also expected Monday through Wednesday as well. A Heat Advisory is now in effect through 8 PM Tuesday Evening for Eastern Franklin, Worcester, Middlesex, Essex, Eastern Hampshire, Eastern Hampden, Southern Bristol, Southern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts, Washington and Newport Counties of Rhode Island for heat indices between 98-101 degrees. A Heat Advisory is now in effect through 8 PM Wednesday Evening for Northern Connecticut, North-Central Rhode Island, Norfolk, North-Central Bristol and North-Central Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for heat indices of 103 expected..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets will be done as needed for severe weather potential Monday Afternoon and Evening and Tuesday and Wednesday as needed. Pictures and videos of storm damage, hail, flooding, etc. can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..
A heat wave has started today in much of Southern New England and with it will also come the threat of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms over the Monday through Wednesday timeframe. Heat safety precautions of drinking plenty of liquids and finding a cool place from the heat as needed should be employed over this 3-day period. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors for Monday include:
1.) Level of forcing and trigger in the atmosphere for strong to severe tstorm development.
2.) Whether certain limiting instability factors can be overcome by other more favorable instability parameters.
3.) Level of wind shear is a bit less than the minimal criteria for severe thunderstorm development but may be overcome by factors 1 and 2.
The additional severe weather potential for Tuesday and Wednesday will be covered in future coordination messages on that day.
SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets will be done as needed for severe weather potential Monday Afternoon and Evening and Tuesday and Wednesday as needed. This will be the only coordination message on Monday’s severe weather potential and a message on Tuesday and Wednesday’s severe weather potential will be posted by 1130 AM Tuesday Morning. Pictures and videos of storm damage, hail, flooding, etc. can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1, Day-2 and Day-3 Convective Outlooks:
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box
NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement & Facebook Infographics on Heat:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=NPW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=802525465385785&set=pcb.802526062052392
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
SPC Day-3 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – https://twitter.com/wx1box
Subscribe on YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/@wx1box-nwsboston-amateur-radio