Severe Weather/Heat Coordination Message #1 – Monday 7/15/24-Wednesday 7/18/24 – Severe Weather & Heat Wave Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible across much of interior Southern New England Monday Afternoon and Evening between 2-9 PM EDT. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather. There are additional chances for severe weather Tuesday and especially Wednesday of this week..
..Intense heat and humidity with a heat wave is also expected Monday through Wednesday as well. A Heat Advisory is now in effect through 8 PM Tuesday Evening for Eastern Franklin, Worcester, Middlesex, Essex, Eastern Hampshire, Eastern Hampden, Southern Bristol, Southern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts, Washington and Newport Counties of Rhode Island for heat indices between 98-101 degrees. A Heat Advisory is now in effect through 8 PM Wednesday Evening for Northern Connecticut, North-Central Rhode Island, Norfolk, North-Central Bristol and North-Central Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for heat indices of 103 expected..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets will be done as needed for severe weather potential Monday Afternoon and Evening and Tuesday and Wednesday as needed. Pictures and videos of storm damage, hail, flooding, etc. can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..

A heat wave has started today in much of Southern New England and with it will also come the threat of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms over the Monday through Wednesday timeframe. Heat safety precautions of drinking plenty of liquids and finding a cool place from the heat as needed should be employed over this 3-day period. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors for Monday include:

1.) Level of forcing and trigger in the atmosphere for strong to severe tstorm development.
2.) Whether certain limiting instability factors can be overcome by other more favorable instability parameters.
3.) Level of wind shear is a bit less than the minimal criteria for severe thunderstorm development but may be overcome by factors 1 and 2.

The additional severe weather potential for Tuesday and Wednesday will be covered in future coordination messages on that day.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets will be done as needed for severe weather potential Monday Afternoon and Evening and Tuesday and Wednesday as needed. This will be the only coordination message on Monday’s severe weather potential and a message on Tuesday and Wednesday’s severe weather potential will be posted by 1130 AM Tuesday Morning. Pictures and videos of storm damage, hail, flooding, etc. can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1, Day-2 and Day-3 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement & Facebook Infographics on Heat:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=NPW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=802525465385785&set=pcb.802526062052392

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

SPC Day-3 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – https://twitter.com/wx1box
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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Saturday 7/13/24 – Heavy Rainfall/Flood Potential

Hello to all…

..A storm system will bring showers and embedded thunderstorms with heavy downpours which could lead to flooding particularly of urban and poor drainage areas..
..A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire NWS Norton Coverage area except for Cape Cod and the Islands for excessive rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage areas from late tonight through Saturday Evening. At this time the greatest risk in the Flood Watch area for flooding is along and south of the Mass. Pike and may also depend on heavy downpours training over the same area and in particular, urban and poor drainage areas..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio call-Up Nets are possible for flooding reports and rain gauge reports of 1″ or more over the course of the day Saturday. Pictures and videos of flooding can be seen as a reply to this email via the WX1BOX Facebook & Twitter feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. This will be the only coordination message unless a significant change to the situation occurs and time allows for an update. Below is the NWS Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and Flood Watch Statement..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=FFA&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – https://twitter.com/wx1box
Subscribe on YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/@wx1box-nwsboston-amateur-radio

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday Afternoon and Evening 7/9/24 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..A Heat Advisory is in effect through 8 PM Wednesday for heat indices of 98-99 degrees for Northern Connecticut, North-Central Rhode Island, Eastern Hampden, Southern Worcester Counties of Massachusetts and Eastern Massachusetts from North-Central Bristol and North-Central Plymouth Counties northward. Use caution in the heat today, drink plenty of liquids and find a cool spot as needed today..
..Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible for much of Southern New England except for Cape Cod and the Islands Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the region in a marginal risk of severe weather for Tuesday with the best chance of severe weather along and north of the Mass Pike. Timeframe is between 2-10 PM Tuesday..
..There will be additional potential for severe weather on Wednesday and this will be detailed in a future coordination message either later tonight or early Wednesday Morning depending on severe weather operations this evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are possible Tuesday. Another more complete coordination message will be posted by 1130 AM Tuesday Morning. Pictures and videos of storm damage, hail, and flooding can be sent as a reply to this email, via the WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated.

Intense heat and humidity and a trigger in the atomsphere will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in portions of interior Southern New England. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) The greatest potential in the marginal risk area will be along and north of the Mass Pike.
2.) Ability for heating, destabilization of the atmosphere from intense heating and sufficiently strong wind shear profiles to overcome other unfavorable factors to allow for strong to severe thunderstorm development.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are possible Tuesday. Another more complete coordination message will be posted by 1130 AM Tuesday Morning. Pictures and videos of storm damage, hail, and flooding can be sent as a reply to this email, via the WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. This will be the last coordination message on Tuesday’s severe weather potential unless a significant update to the situation occurs and time allows for an update as we shift into operations mode. There is potential for more severe weather on Wednesday and a coordination message on that potential will either be posted later this afternoon/evening and/or early Wednesday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, Heat Advisory Statement and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=NPW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – https://twitter.com/wx1box
Subscribe on YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/@wx1box-nwsboston-amateur-radio

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday PM & Evening 7/9/24 – Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible for much of Southern New England except for Cape Cod and the Islands Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the region in a marginal risk of severe weather for Tuesday. Timeframe is between 2-10 PM Tuesday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are possible Tuesday. Another more complete coordination message will be posted by 1130 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2024/day2otlk_20240708_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – https://twitter.com/wx1box
Subscribe on YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/@wx1box-nwsboston-amateur-radio

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Saturday Afternoon & Evening 7/6/24 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..We hope everyone had an enjoyable Independence Day holiday and are having a great holiday weekend..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible particularly across Western and North-Central Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut this afternoon and evening any time between 2-9 PM Saturday. Strong to damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats with hail as a secondary threat..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the area of Western and North-Central Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are possible this Saturday Afternoon and Evening. Pictures and videos of storm damage can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..

A stalled frontal boundary coupled with warm and humid conditions and increasing wind shear will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms particularly in Western and North-Central Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Amount of sunshine for destabilization as morning activity departs the region.
2.) Whether wind shear increases significantly as some convection allowing models (CAMs) are indicating
3.) That there is enough forcing along the stalled out front in the area.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are possible this Saturday Afternoon and Evening. Pictures and videos of storm damage can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. This will be the only coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – https://twitter.com/wx1box
Subscribe on YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/@wx1box-nwsboston-amateur-radio

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Sunday Afternoon & Evening 6/30/24 – Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Scattered to Numerous Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely across much of Southern New England Sunday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats with an isolated tornado a secondary risk..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has most of Southern New England in an Enhanced risk for severe weather for Sunday with a slight risk for areas of Southern New England not in Enhanced risk. SPC has issued a Mesoscale Convective Discussion indicating an 80% chance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern New England. Threat timeframe is slightly expanded to between 12-10 PM Sunday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely as the potential strong to severe thunderstorms traverse the region Sunday Afternoon and Evening. Pictures and videos of storm damage can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..

We will be posting updated post severe weather coordination messages on the prior severe weather events over the course of this weekend. We appreciate and thank all Amateur Radio and non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters for the reports, pictures and videos during those events and if there is more data available, please feel free to send it along to us.

Turning our attention to Sunday’s severe weather potential, the headlines depict the current thinking with the risk increasing of widespread pockets of straightline wind damage in addition to the other hazards mentioned in the headlines. SPC has indicated an 80% chance for severe thunderstorm watches as we go through the day today. The key factors to dictating the coverage and intensity include:

1.) Amount of heating and destabilization we receive ahead of a strong cold front. As of 945 AM Monday, satellite imagery shows clearing from west to east across the area with radar showing showers and thunderstorms in the South-Central New York/Northeast Pennsylvania area. Heating and destabilization should build across the region as expected and has likely built confidence in the severe weather potential resulting in the update to Enhanced risk for most of Southern New England.
2.) Shear profiles will be very strong and with the heating and destabilization looking to be as expected, this sets the stage for a more widespread severe weather event especially with widespread pockets of wind damage in the region.
3.) Cold frontal timing which remains in the ideal time range to maximize heating and destabilization.
4.) While the severe weather potential is expected to be more widespread, not every city or town will see damage and the cities and towns that see damage will likely be in pockets of the communities like most severe thunderstorm events that affect the region.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely as the potential strong to severe thunderstorms traverse the region Sunday Afternoon and Evening. Pictures and videos of storm damage can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. This will be the last coordination message unless a significant change to the situation occurs and time allows for an update. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and SPC Mesoscale Convective Discussion:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Mesoscale Convective Discussion:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1487.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – https://twitter.com/wx1box
Subscribe on YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/@wx1box-nwsboston-amateur-radio

 

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Sunday Afternoon & Evening 6/30/24 – Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely across much of Southern New England Sunday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has all of Southern New England in a slight risk for severe weather for Sunday. Threat timeframe is between 12-8 PM Sunday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely as the potential strong to severe thunderstorms traverse the region Sunday Afternoon and Evening. Pictures and videos of storm damage can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..

We will be posting updated post severe weather coordination messages on the prior severe weather events over the course of this weekend. We appreciate and thank all Amateur Radio and non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters for the reports, pictures and videos during those events and if there is more data available, please feel free to send it along to us.

Turning our attention to Sunday’s severe weather potential, the headlines depict the current thinking and as we get closer to the severe weather potential, we will have a better idea of coverage and intensity. The key factors to dictating the coverage and intensity include:

1.) Amount of heating and destabilization we receive ahead of a strong cold front after any morning showers and thunderstorms clear the region.
2.) Shear profiles will be very strong. If heating and destabilization is somewhat less than expected, the strong winds aloft may offset to some extent lesser instability.
3.) Cold frontal timing which is currently expected to be in the ideal time range to maximize heating and destabilization.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely as the potential strong to severe thunderstorms traverse the region Sunday Afternoon and Evening. Pictures and videos of storm damage can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. Another coordination message will be posted either by 11 PM Saturday Evening or 11 AM Sunday Morning depending on changes to the forecast and other factors. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2024/day2otlk_20240629_0600.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – https://twitter.com/wx1box
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Post Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday Evening 6/26/24-Early Thursday AM 6/27/24 Severe Weather Outbreak

Hello to all…

..Severe Weather Outbreak impacted portions of Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts. A measured wind gust to 77 MPH was recorded at the Bradley International Airport in Windsor Locks, CT and a 75 MPH wind gust was recorded by a trained spotter in Danielson, CT. Widespread pockets of tree and power lines damage with the hardest hit areas being Northern Connecticut, Northern Rhode Island and interior Southeast Massachusetts..
..Pictures, videos, and any late wind damage, hail flood or rain gauge reports 1″ or more are welcomed to document this potent severe weather outbreak. They can be send as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. An updated specific coordination message on this event will be posted either later Thursday 6/27/24 or Friday Morning 6/28/24. A preliminary WX1BOX Amateur Radio log is listed below..

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/reports_6_27_24_rev_1.pdf

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – https://twitter.com/wx1box
Subscribe on YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/@wx1box-nwsboston-amateur-radio

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Late Wednesday PM/Evening/Overnight 6/26/24 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms remain possible late Wednesday Afternoon into late Wednesday Night particularly over Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut but all of interior Southern New England should monitor the potential. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather. Severe weather potential will be after 4-11 PM Wednesday give or take a few hours. There could be some activity that starts earlier in the evening and also some activity beyond 11 PM into the overnight hours..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are possible for the severe weather potential..

Heat and Humidity will return on Wednesday in the region followed by a cold front. This cold front will not be ideally timed to take advantage of maximum instability, however, strong wind shear and other factors may allow for at least an isolated severe thunderstorm threat. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors remain:

1.) If the timing of the front were to speed up and be closer to the higher instability levels, the severe weather potential would increase.
2.) If a complex of severe thunderstorms were to form out west, the storms may maintain themselves better as they enter our region especially in Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut even with the current timing.
3.) If wind shear and other factors are able to offset lowering instability to produce at least isolated severe thunderstorms with the current timing.
4.) There could also be some activity with the pre-frontal trough in the mid to late afternoon but shear profiles won’t be as strong and there could be other mitigating factors such as lack of moisture in the mid to upper levels but this will also bear watching this afternoon and evening.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are possible for the severe weather potential. This will be the last coordination message as we move into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – https://twitter.com/wx1box
Subscribe on YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/@wx1box-nwsboston-amateur-radio

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Late Wednesday PM through Late Wednesday Night 6/25/24 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible late Wednesday Afternoon into late Wednesday Night particularly over Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut but all of interior Southern New England should monitor the potential. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather. Severe weather potential will be between 4-11 PM Wednesday give or take a couple of hours..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are possible for the severe weather potential..

Heat and Humidity will return on Wednesday in the region followed by a cold front. This cold front will not be ideally timed to take advantage of maximum instability, however, strong wind shear and other factors may allow for at least an isolated severe thunderstorm threat. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) If the timing of the front were to speed up and be closer to the higher instability levels, the severe weather potential would increase.
2.) If a complex of severe weather were to form out west, the storms may maintain themselves better as they enter our region especially in Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut even with the current timing.
3.) If wind shear and other factors are able to offset lowering instability to produce at least isolated severe thunderstorms with the current timing.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are possible for the severe weather potential. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 AM Wednesday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2024/day2otlk_20240625_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – https://twitter.com/wx1box
Subscribe on YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/@wx1box-nwsboston-amateur-radio

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