Hello to all…
..Coastal Storm on track to bring significant snow to much of Southern New England with a snow/sleet/freezing rain and rain mixture across Southeast New England, strong to damaging winds in coastal areas and the potential for widespread minor with areas of moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide across East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect for Northern Connecticut, Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Worcester, Middlesex, Essex, Suffolk, Norfolk Counties of Massachusetts and Northwest Providence County Rhode Island from 7 AM Monday Morning through 5 AM Tuesday Morning for 7-15″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and wind gusts of 45 MPH with isolated higher gusts closest to the coast. The snow will have the potential to be heavy and wet with isolated to scattered pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages possible..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect for Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts and all of Rhode Island except for Block Island from 7 AM Monday Morning through 1 AM Tuesday Morning for 6-12″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and wind gusts to 50 MPH. The snow will have the potential to be heavy and wet and that along with the strong winds could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for Cape Cod, Marthas Vineyard in Massachusetts and Block Island RI from 7 AM-7 PM Monday for 2-6″ of snow with the highest amounts away from the immediate coast and in the lower to mid Cape Cod area. The snow will be heavy and wet and that along with wind gusts to 60 MPH can cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect for Cape Cod and the Islands from 12 PM Monday Afternoon through 2 AM Tuesday for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH. These winds combined with wet snow will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Coastal Flood Watch is now in effect for Nantucket and Marthas Vineyard for Monday Afternoon through late Monday Night. A Coastal Flood Watch is now in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod from Monday Evening through Tuesday Afternoon. Widespread minor with areas of moderate coastal flooding are likely during the time of high tide Monday Night on Nantucket and Marthas Vineyard and Monday Night through Tuesday Afternoon in East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod. Flooding of shore roads is potentially likely along with beach erosion and perhaps minor structural coastal flood damage..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets likely Monday into Tuesday for multiple weather hazards including snowfall totals, precipitation changeover, wet snow/wind damage reports and coastal flood road closures and damage reports. Pictures of storm snowfall, storm damage and coastal flooding and coastal flood damage can be posted as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds or via the email address pics@nsradio.org..
A coastal storm will impact Southern New England with a myriad of weather hazards across Southern New England late Monday Morning through Tuesday Afternoon with significant snowfall, strong to damaging winds along and near the coast and the potential for widespread minor with areas of moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide across East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands. The headlines depict the current thinking which includes an Winter Storm Watches converted to Winter Storm Warnings across the coverage area, Winter Weather Advisory posted for Cape Cod and Marthas Vineyard, High Wind Watches converted to High Wind Warnings for Cape Cod and the Islands and a Coastal Flood Watch issued for East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod, Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket. Key factors include:
1.) The rain/snow line and coastal front setup. This will depict which areas see the heaviest snow as areas along and north and west of that coastal front will receive the heaviest snow while areas south and east of that line will see a snow to wintry mix to rain changing back to snow before ending. Some models bring this line up to the I-95 corridor while other models keep this further south particularly when the heaviest precipitation occurs leading to higher snowfall amounts. At this time, a further south rain-snow line is being favored but this will bear watching.
2.) Models indicate areas of Southern New England particularly nearest to that coastal front that sets up could see a heavy, wet snow that combined with any winds could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages.
3.) Strong to damaging winds at the coast and the strength of those winds. That will determine the extent of any wind damage and have some impact on the coastal flood potential. A High Wind Warning is now posted for Cape Cod and the Islands and this may indicate the late Monday Night high tide is the bigger potential threat versus Tuesday Afternoon but it will bear watching.
4.) Some models cutoff the precipitation early on Tuesday while other high resolution models keep it snowing steadily into Tuesday Afternoon resulting in additional accumulations particularly in interior Southern New England. More models are now showing the dry slotting earlier on Tuesday hence the expiration times of the Winter Storm Warnings between 1-5 AM but this will bear watching and will ultimately depend on the placement and direction of the coastal storm and how close it is to Southern New England. This aspect will have to be monitored as it would result in higher snowfall amounts over an extended period if steadier/heavier snow continued later into Tuesday.
5.) Coastal Flood Watches are now posted for East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands. At this time, the Monday Night high tide appears to be a greater threat but the tide cycle on Tuesday Afternoon could also be impacted. This will bear close watching based on storm track, speed and intensity.
SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets likely Monday into Tuesday for multiple weather hazards including snowfall totals, precipitation changeover, wet snow/wind damage reports and coastal flood road closures and damage reports. Pictures of storm snowfall, storm damage and coastal flooding and coastal flood damage can be posted as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds or via the email address pics@nsradio.org. The next coordination message will be posted by 1200 PM Monday if time allows based on storm start time. Also, if time allows, a message regarding Amateur Radio net call-ups on various frequencies will be posted but if not, Amateur Operators are encouraged to guard their SKYWARN repeater by checking the frequency listing on the wx1box.org web site. Below is
NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html
NWS Boston/Norton Coastal Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo
NWS Boston/Norton Snowfall Map:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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