Hurricane Irene Coordination Message #6

August 27, 2011 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Large Hurricane Irene Poised to Strike Southern New England. Hurricane and Tropical Strom Warnings are now in effect and expanded to include Southern New Hampshire. Preparations to protect life and property should now be rushed to completion by Saturday Evening..
..A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Sagamore Beach Massachusetts through Little River Inlet North Carolina including all the islands of New York and Southern New England. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Southern Bristol, Southern Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes, and Nantucket Counties of Massachusetts. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for Southeast Providence, Kent, Bristol, Washington, Newport Counties of Rhode Island including Block Island RI.
..A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from north of Sagamore Beach Massachusetts to the Merrimack River Massachusetts. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the remainder of Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut and has been expanded into Southern New Hampshire..
..A Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire NWS Taunton County Warning Area except for Cape Cod and the Islands from Saturday Evening through late Sunday Night..
..Isolated tornadoes will be possible in Central and Eastern Massachusetts, Rhode Island and portions of Connecticut along and east of the Irene’s track..
..Multiple Models are in agreement on a potential impact to Southern New England in the late Saturday to early Monday timeframe. The extent on specifics of impact are being better detailed now given the current track guidance have had strong run-to-run consistency. Heavy Rain, Damaging Tropical Storm to Hurricane Force Winds, and Coastal Flooding and Beach Erosion along the South Coast of New England remain potential threats. The impact is likely to be similar to Hurricane Gloria in 1985..
..The models are largely in great agreement on a track just off the Mid-Atlantic Coast into Western to Central Long Island and Western to Central Connecticut. This could pose a widespread wind damage threat to areas along and east of Irene’s track with heaviest rainfall along and to the west of the track..
..VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Nets and WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center are now active gathering reports from North Carolina, Virginia and the Mid-Atlantic Region..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 6 AM Sunday lasting through early Monday for impact of Large Hurricane Irene. There is the possibility that Ops at NWS Taunton could be started a little prior to 6 AM based on Irene’s movement..
..ARES/RACES/MARS/EMCOMM Groups should closely monitor the progress of large Hurricane Irene and seek advise from local leadership on stand-by status for their area..
..A Special Reporting Criteria and Safety Message to encompass some of the items that WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center, will be looking for will be sent Saturday Afternoon..
..The first 4 paragraphs of this coordination message contain the most critical updates..

As of the 11 AM Saturday National Hurricane Center/Tropical Prediction Center Advisory package, Hurricane Warnings are in effect to include the area from Sagamore Beach Massachusetts to Watch Hill Rhode Island all the way down to Little River Inlet North Carolina. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Southern Bristol, Southern Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes, and Nantucket Counties of Massachusetts. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for Southeast Providence, Kent, Bristol, Washington, Newport Counties of Rhode Island including Block Island RI. In the Hurricane Warning area, hurricane force winds sustained or in gusts are likely to occur over the region. 2-4 inches of rain will be expected in this area with isolated higher amounts. Storm Surge flooding will occur across the south facing coastal locations with a 3-6 foot surge over portions of Cape Cod potentially reaching 4-8 feet in Narragansett and Buzzards Bays.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from north of Sagamore Beach to Merrimack River Massachusetts. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the remainder of Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut and has been expanded into Southern New Hampshire. In this area, sustained winds to tropical storm force with gusts to high end tropical storm force are expected in the area. There is likely to be 5 to 10 inches of rainfall with isolated higher amounts in this region.

A Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire NWS Taunton County Warning Area except for Cape Cod and the Islands for Saturday Evening through late Sunday Night. Heavy rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated higher amounts is expected to cause widespread minor to moderate flooding of rivers and streams along with potentially significant urban and poor drainage flooding. The exact heavy axis of rain is likely to be over Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut but could also make it into Central and Northeast areas depending on Irene’s exact track.

The track guidance is in good agreement on a track just offshore of the mid-atlantic coast into Western and Central Long Island New York and then into Western and Central Connecticut. This will put portions of Central and much of Eastern Masaschusetts, Rhode Island, and Eastern Connecticut on the damaging wind side of the hurricane. Potentially widespread damaging winds to trees and power lines are likely with pockets of wind damage on the west side of the storm track with very heavy rainfall. Isolated Tornadoes are possible along and to the east of Irene’s track. The impact is expected to be similar to Hurricane Glorida in 1985.

Also, it is noted that there will be very high wind speeds at 1000 feet and higher. Higher elevation locations across the region along with coastal areas will be the most prone locations to significant wind damage to trees and wires.

The VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Nets along with WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center will be active all weekend. See their respective net links and the link to WX4NHC for details:

VoIP Hurricane Net:
http://www.voipwx.net

Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org

WX4NHC – Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.wx4nhc.org

High Surf conditions are affecting the New England coast. Swells and Rip Currents can be very dangerous to both the experienced and inexperienced swimmer. A rip current risk statement was reissued Friday Morning by NWS Taunton. See links below:

NWS Taunton High Surf Advisory/Rip Current Risk Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Surf Zone Forecast Information:
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on&issuedby=BOX&product=SRF

Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should continue to keep high situational awareness regarding the track and intensity of Hurricane Irene. People should continue reviewing and acting on their preparedness measures for tropical storm/hurricane force conditions and have these plans completed by Saturday Evening. This information has been provided via the Hurricane Preparedness Week Public Information Statements of Safety Tips via the link below and via a hurricane preparedness guide with a link to that listed below as well:

http://beta.wx1box.org/local/hurrpre.txt
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/announcement/hurricanePreparedness.pdf

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely starting at 6 AM ET lasting through Monday for impact of Large Hurricane Irene. It is possible Ops at NWS Taunton could be pushed back to 4 or 5 AM depending on her speed of motion toward the region or heavy rainfall Saturday Night over the region. ARES/RACES/MARS/EMCOMM Groups should closely monitor the progress of Large Hurricane Irene and seek advice from local leadership on stand-by status for their area which should soon move into to activation status.

Once again, Hurricane Irene should be monitored closely by people in Southern New England and preparations to protect life and propery should now be rushed to completion by Saturday Evening. The latest NWS Taunton Hurricane Irene Local Statement, Flood Watch statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and advisory/track information on Large Hurricane Irene from the National Hurricane Center are listed below:

NWS Taunton Hurricane Irene Local Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Irene Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt34.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt44.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt24.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font14.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Track Map provided by the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/025514.shtml?5-daynl#contents

The next coordination message will likely be posted by 9 PM Saturday pending further computer model data on the track of Irene and significant updates to Irene’s status as a tropical system from an intensity perspective as well as the status on Watches and Warnings for the region. That will likely be the last Hurricane Irene Coordination Mesage as we move into Operations mode.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org