Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Severe Weather Potential Monday 5/28/12 and Tuesday 5/29/12
Hello to all..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely across Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and Northwest and North-Central Connecticut late Monday Afternoon through early Tuesday Morning. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. SPC and NWS Taunton are in agreement on a slight risk for severe weather for this area for Monday..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across much of the NWS Taunton Coverage area late Tuesday Afternoon and Tuesday Night. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely as early as 3 PM Monday Afternoon lasting into early Tuesday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely again late Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday Night..
The cold front that moved through Southern New England late Saturday Afternoon and Saturday Night will move back over portions of Western New England on Monday as a warm front and stall over portions of Central New England tonight and Monday. Any shower and isolated thunderstorm activity with the warm front will wane Monday Morning. This will place portions of Western New England in the warm sector and with the warm front as a potential trigger with sunshine and destablization expected. It will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail, and urban/poor drainage flooding as the primary threats. An isolated supercell cannot be ruled out over the area. SPC and NWS Taunton are in agreement on a slight risk for severe weather over Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and portions of Northwest and North-Central Connecticut. The threat will be contingent on the following factors:
1.) Placement and triggering mechanism potential of the warm front over the area.
2.) Amount of sunshine in the warm sector.
3.) Coverage of severe thunderstorms. There is the possibility that the thunderstorms could be quite isolated over the area but cells that form will have a high probability of producing severe weather.
As the severe weather threat wanes early Tuesday Morning, heating and destablization should commence again ahead of a cold front later Tuesday Morning into the afternoon. This should set stage for a more widespread round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. The threat timeframe will be late Tuesday Afternoon through Tuesday Night. The threat for Tuesday is likely to cover much of the NWS Taunton coverage area away from the coast and could have more numerous severe thunderstorms but potentially not as potent as the Monday late afternoon and evening storms that will likely not be as widespread but each individual cell being more potent. The Tuesday severe weather threat will be discussed further once the Monday severe weather threat has passed.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely as early as 3 PM Monday Afternoon lasting into early Tuesday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely again late Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday Night. The next coordination message will be posted by Noon Monday. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/spc/latest.acus02.KWNS.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Hello to all..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely across Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and Northwest and North-Central Connecticut late Monday Afternoon through early Tuesday Morning. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. SPC and NWS Taunton are in agreement on a slight risk for severe weather for this area for Monday..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across much of the NWS Taunton Coverage area late Tuesday Afternoon and Tuesday Night. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely as early as 3 PM Monday Afternoon lasting into early Tuesday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely again late Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday Night..
The cold front that moved through Southern New England late Saturday Afternoon and Saturday Night will move back over portions of Western New England on Monday as a warm front and stall over portions of Central New England tonight and Monday. Any shower and isolated thunderstorm activity with the warm front will wane Monday Morning. This will place portions of Western New England in the warm sector and with the warm front as a potential trigger with sunshine and destablization expected. It will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail, and urban/poor drainage flooding as the primary threats. An isolated supercell cannot be ruled out over the area. SPC and NWS Taunton are in agreement on a slight risk for severe weather over Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and portions of Northwest and North-Central Connecticut. The threat will be contingent on the following factors:
1.) Placement and triggering mechanism potential of the warm front over the area.
2.) Amount of sunshine in the warm sector.
3.) Coverage of severe thunderstorms. There is the possibility that the thunderstorms could be quite isolated over the area but cells that form will have a high probability of producing severe weather.
As the severe weather threat wanes early Tuesday Morning, heating and destablization should commence again ahead of a cold front later Tuesday Morning into the afternoon. This should set stage for a more widespread round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. The threat timeframe will be late Tuesday Afternoon through Tuesday Night. The threat for Tuesday is likely to cover much of the NWS Taunton coverage area away from the coast and could have more numerous severe thunderstorms but potentially not as potent as the Monday late afternoon and evening storms that will likely not be as widespread but each individual cell being more potent. The Tuesday severe weather threat will be discussed further once the Monday severe weather threat has passed.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely as early as 3 PM Monday Afternoon lasting into early Tuesday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely again late Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday Night. The next coordination message will be posted by Noon Monday. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/spc/latest.acus02.KWNS.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org