Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday July 7th, 2014 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely from mid-afternoon Monday through Monday Evening across Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut. Strong to damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. Eastern areas should monitor as we get into Monday Evening. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed areas just to the west of the NWS Taunton coverage area in a Slight Risk for severe weather and portions of Western New England in a 5% risk for severe weather..
..Additional chances for Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms exist for Tuesday late Afternoon and Evening and Wednesday. Activity may linger into Thursday as well. SPC has placed much of Southern New England in a 5% risk of severe weather for Tuesday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely mid-afternoon Monday through Monday Evening..

Warm and humid conditions will return after a pleasant weekend in the wake of the July 3rd Severe Weather Outbreak and Hurricane Arthur’s impacts on Eastern New England. Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely from mid-afternoon Monday through Monday Evening across Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut possibly spreading further east as we get into Monday Evening. Wind shear profiles combined with sufficient instability should allow for the development of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms during this period. Strong to damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. Eastern areas should monitor as we get into Monday Evening. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed areas just to the west of the NWS Taunton coverage area in a Slight Risk for severe weather and portions of Western New England in a 5% risk for severe weather.

Additional chances for Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms exist for Tuesday late Afternoon and Evening and Wednesday. Activity may linger into Thursday as well. SPC has placed much of Southern New England in a 5% risk of severe weather for Tuesday. The details on the severe weather potential during this timeframe will be handled as we get closer to each day. The threats for severe weather during these days will depend on the following:

1.) Cloud cover from any previous convection on the previous day.
2.) Timing and movement of any other impulses or triggers in the atmosphere ahead of the cold front.
3.) Timing and movement of the actual cold front through our region.

After Thursday, conditions are expected to be dry Friday and Saturday likely extending into the first half of Sunday.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely mid-afternoon Monday though Monday Evening. This will be the only coordination message on the severe weather potential for Monday. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. The next coordination message on potential for severe weather on Tuesday will be posted either late Monday Evening or Tuesday Morning depending on the evolution of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms mid-Monday Afternoon to Monday Evening. Below are the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely from mid-afternoon Monday through Monday Evening across Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut. Strong to damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. Eastern areas should monitor as we get into Monday Evening. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed areas just to the west of the NWS Taunton coverage area in a Slight Risk for severe weather and portions of Western New England in a 5% risk for severe weather..
..Additional chances for Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms exist for Tuesday late Afternoon and Evening and Wednesday. Activity may linger into Thursday as well. SPC has placed much of Southern New England in a 5% risk of severe weather for Tuesday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely mid-afternoon Monday through Monday Evening..

Warm and humid conditions will return after a pleasant weekend in the wake of the July 3rd Severe Weather Outbreak and Hurricane Arthur’s impacts on Eastern New England. Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely from mid-afternoon Monday through Monday Evening across Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut possibly spreading further east as we get into Monday Evening. Wind shear profiles combined with sufficient instability should allow for the development of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms during this period. Strong to damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. Eastern areas should monitor as we get into Monday Evening. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed areas just to the west of the NWS Taunton coverage area in a Slight Risk for severe weather and portions of Western New England in a 5% risk for severe weather.

Additional chances for Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms exist for Tuesday late Afternoon and Evening and Wednesday. Activity may linger into Thursday as well. SPC has placed much of Southern New England in a 5% risk of severe weather for Tuesday. The details on the severe weather potential during this timeframe will be handled as we get closer to each day. The threats for severe weather during these days will depend on the following:

1.) Cloud cover from any previous convection on the previous day.
2.) Timing and movement of any other impulses or triggers in the atmosphere ahead of the cold front.
3.) Timing and movement of the actual cold front through our region.

After Thursday, conditions are expected to be dry Friday and Saturday likely extending into the first half of Sunday.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely mid-afternoon Monday though Monday Evening. This will be the only coordination message on the severe weather potential for Monday. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. The next coordination message on potential for severe weather on Tuesday will be posted either late Monday Evening or Tuesday Morning depending on the evolution of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms mid-Monday Afternoon to Monday Evening. Below are the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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