Hello to all..
..Major Winter Storm/Blizzard with the potential for a Historic Storm for all of Southern New England Monday Evening through late Tuesday Night, possibly extending into Wednesday Morning. Preparations for this major system should be completed by late Monday Afternoon/early evening at the latest and given latest model trends if it could be completed before the evening commute, that would be the best scenario with an earlier start of accumulating snow..
..A Blizzard Warning remains in effect for Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts northwest of the Cape Cod Canal 7 PM Monday Evening to 1 AM Wednesday Morning for 15-30″ of snow, a band of isolated higher amounts likely and sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 65-75 MPH and isolated higher gusts likely. The strong to damaging winds coupled with heavy snow will create blizzard conditions and the potential for scattered to numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages particularly south of a Providence to Taunton to Plymouth line where the strongest winds at the coastline coupled with a heavy wet snow near a rain/snow transition line is likely to setup..
..A Blizzard Warning remains in effect for Northern Connecticut and Southern Worcester County Massachusetts from 7 PM Monday Evening to 1 AM Wednesday Morning for 20-30 Inches of snow and sustained winds of 15-25 MPH it wind gusts to 45 MPH. The combination of heavy snowfall and strong winds will likely cause blizzard conditions in this region. Isolated tree and wire damage and power outages are possible but the winds won’t be quite as strong and snow will be lighter and fluffier in this area so the infrastructure damage threat is lower in this area versus eastern portions of the Blizzard Warning area..
..A Blizzard Warning remains in effect for Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard from 7 PM Monday Evening through Noon Tuesday for 10-18″ of snow with isolated higher amounts closest to he Cape Cod Canal and possibly somewhat lower amounts on the Outer Cape, sustained winds of 35-45 MPH with gusts to 70-80 MPH and isolated higher gusts likely. The strong to damaging winds coupled with heavy wet snow will create blizzard conditions and the potential for scattered to numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. The precipitation may change to rain for a time around midday Tuesday before changing back to snow Tuesday Evening and ending early Wednesday Morning..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Northern Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts from 7 PM Monday Evening to 1 AM Wednesday Morning for 20-30″ of snow, isolated higher amounts possible and winds sustained at 15-25 MPH with gusts to 35-45 MPH and a period of near blizzard conditions.
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect for Nantucket Island from 7 PM Monday Evening through 1 AM Wednesday Morning for 4-6″ of snow. For Nantucket, they will be closest to the storm center and will have the most mixing or the longest changeover to rain of all areas of Southern New England. This area is currently expected to reach minimal Winter Storm criteria for snowfall. The snow will be heavy and wet and coupled with strong to damaging winds could cause numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A High Wind Warning remains in effect for Nantucket Island from 7 PM Monday Evening to 1 AM Wednesday Morning for sustained winds of 35-45 MPH with gusts to 70-80 MPH and isolated higher gusts likely. The damaging winds combined with any heavy wet snow could cause numerous pockets of tree and wire damage..
..A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect from 3-7 AM Tuesday for East Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and Nantucket Island for widespread moderate to potentially isolated pockets of major coastal flooding with considerable beach erosion. This means numerous road closures, flooded basements and the possibility of isolated structural damage from coastal flooding..
..A Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and Nantucket Island for widespread moderate to potentially isolated pockets of major coastal flooding with considerable beach erosion for the late Tuesday Afternoon high tide cycles. This means numerous road closures, flooded basements and the possibility of isolated structural damage from coastal flooding..
..Storm pictures and video of snowfall measurements, wind and coastal damage will be very helpful for situational awareness/disaster intelligence purposes benefiting the National Weather Service, Emergency Management, the media, and Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs). They can be sent via our WX1BOX Facebook, Twitter feed, as a reply to this email or to pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter for the pictures unless otherwise noted. Pictures can be sent during and after the storm. Please do not compromise safety to get these pictures and video..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence no later than 6 PM Monday Evening and last through at least late Tuesday Night with overnight operations active at least Monday Night and possibly Tuesday Night. Amateur Radio Emergency Services (ARES)/Radio Amateur Civil Emergency Services Groups (RACES) should closely monitor the progress of this potential major winter storm/blizzard which could be a historic storm for the region and seek advice from local ARES/RACES/EMCOMM leaders..
Computer weather models overnight continue to indicate a potentially significant major winter storm and blizzard for Southern New England. This is likely to be a crippling and historic storm. The storm onset is approximately 12 hours away as well which means preparation for this potentially historic storm is somewhat condensed and must be completed by late Monday Afternoon. The headlines of this coordination message depicts the current threats to the region. The only significant change was to upgrade Nantucket Island to a Winter Storm Warning. In Nantucket, they are expected to meet the minimal Winter Storm Warning criteria as there will be snow mixing with and changing to rain with a change back to snow. This is a high confidence forecast on the general theme for the region though specific details still need to be worked out with some variability in storm tracks that could affect snow totals in extreme Southeast Coastal New England. Those specific details include:
1.) Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard are still expected to see significant snowfall and blizzard conditions despite a mix or changeover to rain around midday Tuesday with Blizzard Warnings posted. This could change but this area remains at significant risk for extensive tree and wire damage and power outages regardless of whether true blizzard criteria is met. There is also the possibility of heavier snow towards the Cape Cod Canal and lesser snow over the Outer Cape. This will depend on the storm track. There remains the threat that all of Cape Cod gets significant snow amounts in the 10-18″ range.
2.) For the southeastern portions of the Blizzard Warning area along and south of a Providence to Taunton to Plymouth line through the immediate south and east coasts of Massachusetts and Rhode Island, this region is closest to an overlap of damaging winds with heavy wet snow and could also be an area of enhanced damage. This will continue to bear close watching. It is noted that some parts of extreme Southeast Coastal Massachusetts have a slight drop of snow accumulations forecasted. This region is still expected to get at over 12″ of snow with the 20-30″ snow forecast not unreasonable. The variability here will depend on the location of any heavy snow bands that cause dry slotting in this area and if the rain/snow line were to move further west than forecasted given some variability in the weather model tracks of this dangerous nor’easter.
3.) Within the Blizzard Warning area included the area expanded through Northern Connecticut into Southern Worcester County Massachusetts, a band of heavier snow is likely within the widespread area of 20-30″ of snow. Future model runs and trends will help delineate where that will setup. This area along with the remainder of the Blizzard Warning area north and west of a Providence to Taunton to Plymouth line will see isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages but the snow will not be as heavy and wet and winds in western and northern parts of the Blizzard Warning are away from the coast will see winds not as strong as near the coast and southern and eastern areas of the Blizzard Warning. Nonetheless, some pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages are likely.
4.) For western and central portions of the NWS Taunton coverage area under a Winter Storm Warning, there will be a period of near blizzard conditions but the threat for true blizzard conditions is less due to winds not as strong as in eastern areas. The snow will be lighter and fluffier which should keep any infrastructure damage to trees and power lines and any power outages more isolated. Nonetheless, 20-30″ of snow are expected in these areas and travel will be extremely difficult.
People should prepare for this major storm similar to other past major winter storms for the region. Have plenty of batteries and battery powered equipment on hand and test out this equipment and any generator equipment and have non-perishable food items. Make sure you have gas for your generator as well. If it turns out that you do not lose power in the storm, you will be better prepared for the next storm system.
Storm pictures and video of snowfall measurements, wind and coastal damage will be very helpful for situational awareness/disaster intelligence purposes benefiting the National Weather Service, Emergency Management, the media, and Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs). They can be sent via our WX1BOX Facebook, Twitter feed, as a reply to this email or to pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter for the pictures unless otherwise noted. Pictures can be sent during and after the storm. Please do not compromise safety to get these pictures and video.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence no later than 6 PM Monday Evening and last through at least late Tuesday Night with overnight operations active at least Monday Night and possibly Tuesday Night. Amateur Radio Emergency Services (ARES)/Radio Amateur Civil Emergency Services Groups (RACES) should closely monitor the progress of this potential major winter storm/blizzard which could be a historic storm for the region and seek advice from local ARES/RACES/EMCOMM leaders. This will likely be the last coordination message for this event unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs. Below is the NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Warning Statement, High Wind Warning Statement, Coastal Flood Warning/Watch Statement, NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics and Winter Weather Preparedness Safety Tips from the 2014 Winter Weather Preparedness Week:
NWS Taunton Blizzard Warning/Winter Storm Warning Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton High Wind Warning Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Warning/Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter
NWS Taunton Winter Weather Preparedness Week Statements:
http://www.weather.gov/box/WinterWeatherPreparednessWeek
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/winter_weather_preparedness_11_8_14.txt
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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