Blizzard/Storm Coordination Message #2 – Monday Morning 2/8/16 through Tuesday Morning 2/9/16 Winter Storm Potential
Hello to all..
..Another Winter Storm to impact Southern New England Monday Morning into Tuesday Morning. With a track closer to the Southern New England, this brings a potential blizzard to Southeast coastal Massachusetts and significant snowfall and winds to the rest of Southeast Massachusetts and higher snowfall totals region wide..
..A Blizzard Warning is now in effect from 4 AM-7 PM Monday for Plymouth County and Cape Cod and the Islands for 8-12″ of snow with a band of 12-18″ amounts likely within the blizzard warning area. Nantucket will get somewhat less snow with 4-8″. Sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts of 65-70 MPH and possibly isolated higher gusts are now likely in the blizzard warning area. The strong to damaging winds, additional snowfall and prior winter storm could result in scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 4 AM Monday Morning to 7 AM Tuesday Morning for Essex, Central and Southeast Middlesex, Southern Worcester, Suffolk, Norfolk, and Northern Bristol Counties of Massachusetts and Providence, Eastern Kent, Bristol and Newport Counties of Rhode Island for 6-10″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and sustained winds of 15-25 MPH with wind gusts up to 40-45 MPH likely. The strong to damaging winds, additional snowfall and prior winter storm could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 4 AM Monday Morning to 7 AM Tuesday Morning for Washington County and Block Island Rhode Island and Windham County Connecticut for 4-8″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and sustained winds of 15-25 MPH with wind gusts up to 35 MPH inland and 40-50 MPH along the Southern RI coastline. Isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages are possible in Southern Rhode Island..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 4 AM Monday Morning to 7 AM Tuesday Morning for the rest of the NWS Taunton Coverage Area which is North-Central Connecticut and Western and North-Central Massachusetts for 3-6″ of snow and wind gusts to 25 MPH..
..A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for the late Monday Morning/Midday High Tide Cycle for Eastern Plymouth County, Cape Cod and Nantucket for minor to moderate coastal flooding meaning the potential for flooded shore roads and road closures at the time of that high tide cycle and a Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts north of Scituate and Hull through Boston and Cape Ann for minor to pockets of moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 6 AM for this major winter storm and blizzard. Will request a number of call-up nets on various SKYWARN Repeaters across the Winter Storm, Blizzard and Coastal Flood Warning areas and some advisory areas. ARES/RACES groups especially in Eastern New England, should closely monitor the guidance of local ARES/RACES/EMCOMM/Emergency Management groups regarding this storm system..
Another major winter storm and for Southeast Coastal Massachusetts, potentially another blizzard, will affect portions of Southern New England. The headlines of the message reflect the current thinking on this upcoming winter storm given a more westward trend in the guidance. Some of the key items of uncertainty at this time include:
1.) How far west for the heavier snowfall
As we have seen in prior winter storms in this 2015-2016 winter, we have seen storm tracks on model runs indicate just southeast New England areas affected only to have the western cutoff of the heavier snow retrograde back further west into other parts of Southern New England. This trend has held true with this storm system with model runs trending further west with this storm system meaning greater impacts across Southeast coastal Massachusetts and the rest of Eastern Massachusetts, and Rhode Island and greater snowfall totals in the rest of the NWS Taunton coverage area. The current headlines reflect the latest thinking.
2.) Ocean Effect Snow band setup
Ocean effect snow bands and their setup could result in localized areas of heavier snow where these bands setup which is difficult to pinpoint. The greatest risk areas are over East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands and that is why higher amounts in the 12-18″ range are quite likely within a general areas of 6-12″ of snowfall over the Blizzard Warning area. This will bear watching.
3.) Strong Winds and Impact on Trees and Wires Given Prior Wet Snowfall
The snow for Monday shouldn’t be quite as heavy and wet as Friday but the initial snow that starts falling for the first few hours may be we and heavy and then get lighter as the storm progresses. Winds now are expected to be much stronger particularly in the Blizzard Warning area but also in southeast portions of the Winter Storm Warning area. The snow that falls and the strong to damaging winds particularly in the blizzard warning and at the coast as well as southeast portions of the Winter Storm Warning area coupled with any weakened trees and wires from the Friday storm event could cause scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. This potential continues to bear watching and people in the highest risk areas should closely monitor this potential.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 6 AM for this major winter storm and blizzard. This will likely be the last coordination message on this storm system. Will request a number of call-up nets on various SKYWARN Repeaters across the Winter Storm, Blizzard and Coastal Flood Warning areas and some advisory areas. ARES/RACES groups especially in Eastern New England, should closely monitor the guidance of local ARES/RACES/EMCOMM/Emergency Management groups regarding this storm system. Below is the NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Warning/Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, and snowfall map:
NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Warning/Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875(508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503(508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929508-346-2929(8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box
