July 2021 – Page 3

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday 7/6/21 Severe Weather Potential

July 6, 2021 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely Tuesday Afternoon and Evening across Southern New England with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed all of Southern New England in a Slight risk for severe weather with the timeframe between 1-8 PM Tuesday Afternoon and Evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon and Evening..

Heat and humidity will return to Southern New England Tuesday and with an impulse in the atmosphere, it will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms during the Tuesday afternoon and evening hours. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Wind shear values will be marginally conducive for severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts. If that shear becomes stronger, it could potentially mean a greater more widespread severe weather risk and this will be monitored. Certain mid-level instability parameters are also marginally favorable for severe thunderstorm development.
2.) Any cloud cover leftover from any overnight showers or isolated thunderstorms associated with a warm front pushing through the region that will bring in the heat and humidity.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210705_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Thursday 7/1/21 Severe Weather & Flash Flood Potential

July 1, 2021 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..After the most widespread severe weather event so far in the 2021 Severe Weather Season, a more marginal risk for Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms exists this Thursday Afternoon and Evening between 1-9 PM across Central and Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts. Heavy downpours and urban and poor drainage flooding is the primary threat with a secondary threat for strong to damaging winds and hail..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Central and Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts in a marginal risk for severe weather for this Thursday Afternoon and Evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flood potential for Thursday Afternoon and Evening..
..Post storm wind damage, lightning damage, hail and flooding reports, pictures and videos from the Wednesday 6/30/21 and today’s potential severe weather/flood event can be sent via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and to the email address pics@nsradio.org. Credit will be given to the spotter for providing the pictures, videos, reports..

Wednesday 6/30/21 brought the most widespread severe weather event so far in the 2021 Severe Thunderstorm/Severe Weather Season in our coverage area. The latest Local Storm Report on Wednesday 6/30/21 severe weather event can be seen here:

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2107010134.nwus51.html

As stated in the headlines, post storm wind damage, lightning damage, hail and flooding reports, pictures and videos from the Wednesday 6/30/21 and today’s potential severe weather/flood event can be sent via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and to the email address pics@nsradio.org. Credit will be given to the spotter for providing the pictures, videos, reports.

A more limited potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across Central and Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island and South-Central and Southeast Massachusetts this Thursday Afternoon and Evening from 1-9 PM EDT. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Amount of sunshine to allow for heating and destabilization. Cloud cover is not as extensive as previously thought with some sizeable breaks in the clouds in the marginal risk area. This is expected to allow for increased instability and part of the reason for the marginal risk upgrade in Central and Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island, and South-Central and Southeast Massachusetts.
2.) Wind shear in the atmosphere will be strong so with the increased instability due to more breaks of sunshine, a few isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms could cause strong to damaging winds and hail in the SPC marginal risk area.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flood potential for Thursday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the only coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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