Hello to all…

..A major winter storm and blizzard will impact much of Southern New England late Friday Night into Saturday Night with heavy snowfall, the potential for blizzard and near blizzard conditions for a portion of the region, extreme snowfall rates and thundersnow, strong to damaging winds in East and South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and the potential for minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide cycles particularly Saturday Evening but also Saturday Morning as well. Model consensus continues to firm for a high impact system to pound the region..
..A Blizzard Warning is now in effect from 7 AM Saturday to 5 AM Sunday for East Coastal Massachusetts including Boston and Eastern Norfolk County Mass, Cape Cod and Marthas Vineyard for 18-24″ with isolated higher amounts or a band of higher amounts up to 30 inches in this area and wind gusts 60-70 MPH likely with isolated higher gusts to hurricane force possible. There will be considerable blowing and drifting of snow and the potential for scattered pockets of tree and power line damage with scattered to numerous pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages in portions of Cape Cod and Marthas Vineyard..
..A Blizzard Warning is now in effect from 12 AM Saturday to 12 AM Sunday for Bristol and Western and Southern Plymouth Counties for 18-24″ with isolated higher amounts or a band of higher amounts of up to 30 inches in this area and wind gusts to 60 MPH likely with isolated higher wind gusts possible. These winds could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages in addition to considerable blowing and drifting snow..
..A Blizzard Warning is now in effect from 12 AM Saturday to 12 AM Sunday for Rhode Island, Western Essex, Central and Southeast Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for 15-19″ of snow with isolated higher amounts or a band of higher amounts to 24″ in this area and wind gusts to 60 MPH likely with isolated higher gusts possible. These winds could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages in addition to considerable blowing and drifting snow ..
..A Winter Storm Warning is in effect from 12 AM Saturday to 12 AM Sunday for Nantucket for 8-18″ of snow and wind gusts to 70 MPH likely and hurricane force wind gusts possible. These winds could cause scattered to numerous pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect from 12 AM Saturday to 12 AM Sunday for Northern Connecticut, Worcester, Eastern Hampden, Eastern Hampshire and Eastern Franklin Counties of Massachusetts for 7-15″ of snow with isolated higher amounts possible in eastern areas of this warning and wind gusts to 45 MPH likely. These winds could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 1200 AM Saturday to 1200 AM Sunday for Western Hampshire, Western Hampden Counties of Massachusetts for 5-8″ of snow and wind gusts to 40 MPH possible. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 12 AM Saturday to 12 AM Sunday for Western Franklin County Massachusetts for 4-6″ of snow and wind gusts to 35 MPH possible..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands from minor to moderate coastal flooding of shore roads at the time of the Saturday Morning and Saturday Evening high tide cycles. Coastal flooding will be monitored closely in case those issues become higher than anticipated..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely Saturday and potentially Sunday Morning for this significant blizzard/storm system and the final net schedule is posted below understanding change could happen as required pending storm conditions. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode..
..ARES/RACES Groups in Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island should closely monitor the progress of this system and seek advice from local leadership. Pictures and videos of snowfall, wind damage and coastal flooding when the event unfolds can be sent as a reply to the message or to the email address pics@nsradio.org..

Models are all showing a powerful coastal storm system will impact Southern New England late Friday Night into Saturday Night. Model solutions are pretty much locked into the current scenario and the current forecast and headlines depict current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) The all important forecast track of this system is fairly locked in at this point. Key areas of changes will be largely regarding how heavy the snows are on the western side of the system and where, if any, cutoff in precipitation will be.
2.) There will be the potential for extreme snowfall rates of 4-5″ per hour in eastern portions of the Winter Storm Warning area and in the Blizzard Warning area. This may allow for even higher totals than currently forecasted and will be monitored closely for where these heaviest snow bands line up in the Blizzard and possibly Winter Storm Warning areas. Frequent spotter reports on snowfall will help determine the snowfall ranges in realtime as the storm hits.
3.) The strongest winds are currently timed between the two high tide cycles but minor to pockets of moderate coastal flooding are likely in East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands and if those winds shift to one of the high tide cycles it could increase the risk of greater coastal flooding at the time of high tides both Saturday morning and Saturday Evening with the northern coastal exposures of East Coastal Massachusetts at highest risk. Coastal Flood Advisories are now posted for the Saturday Morning and Evening high tide cycles.

With all of the blowing and drifting snow expected with the blizzard and near blizzard conditions, we advise spotters to take additional measurements, as much as 10-20 and average them in an attempt to get the most accurate snow measurement possible. We appreciate all SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators support in making this happen.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely Saturday and potentially Sunday Morning for this significant blizzard/storm system and the final net schedule is posted below understanding change could happen as required pending storm conditions. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. ARES/RACES Groups in Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island should closely monitor the progress of this system and seek advice from local leadership. Pictures and videos of snowfall, wind damage and coastal flooding when the event unfolds can be sent as a reply to the message or to the email address pics@nsradio.org.

Below is the confirmed Amateur Radio Net Schedule for the first initial nets, net control will announce the next net to take place on the frequencies listed below but the next nets will likely be 2 hours after the ones listed and continue every 2 hours except increase to hourly updates when the snowfall rates increase 2″ per hour or more in a given area as needed:

600 AM: Cape Cod and Islands WX Net – 147.375-Falmouth Repeater PL: 110.9 Hz
630 AM: Western Mass Emergency Net – HF – serving Western and Eastern Mass and surrounding areas: 3944 KHz
645 AM: MMRA Repeater Network
700 AM: South Coast SKYWARN Net: 147.000-Dartmouth Repeater PL: 67.0 Hz
700 AM: Norfolk County SKYWARN Net: 146.895-Walpole Repeater PL: 123.0 Hz
700 AM: Worcester County SKYWARN Net: 146.970-Paxton Repeater PL: 114.8 Hz
700 AM: Western Mass SKYWARN VHF Net: 146.940-Mount Tom Repeater PL: 127.3 Hz
715 AM: Boston SKYWARN Net – 145.230 Boston Repeater PL: 88.5 Hz
715 AM: NB1RI RI SKYWARN Net: NB1RI linked repeater system
730 AM: Hartford-Tolland County SKYWARN Net – 146.790-Vernon, CT Repeater – PL: 82.5 Hz
730 AM: Metro Boston/Middlesex County SKYWARN Net: 146.640-Waltham Repeater – PL: 136.5 Hz
800 AM: Cape and Islands SKYWARN Net – 146.955-Barnstable Repeater PL: 88.5 Hz
800 AM: North Shore SKYWARN Net – 145.470-Danvers Repeater PL: 136.5 Hz
900 AM: Westford/PART – Northern Middlesex County SKYWARN Net – 146.955-Westford Repeater PL: 74.4 Hz
** – The Echolink *NEW-ENG3* Conference node: 9123/IRLP 9123 will be monitored throughout the duration the event. The 147.180-Bridgewater Repeater will be connected through that system and some of the nets listed above will be connected to for those repeaters that have Echolink and IRLP capability.
*** – Other repeaters may be monitored on an as needed basis based on Amateur Radio Operator availability.

Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Blizzard Warning/Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Snowfall Maps, Coastal Flood Advisory Statement and Area Forecast Discussion:

NWS Boston/Norton Blizzard Warning/Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement & Snowfall Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

NWS Boston/Norton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&product=CFW&issuedby=BOX

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&product=AFD&issuedby=BOX

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..A major winter storm and blizzard will impact much of Southern New England late Friday Night into Saturday Night with heavy snowfall, the potential for blizzard and near blizzard conditions for a portion of the region, strong to damaging winds in East and South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and the potential for minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide cycles particularly Saturday Evening but also Saturday Morning as well. Model consensus continues to firm for a high impact system to pound the region..
..A Blizzard Warning is now in effect from 7 AM Saturday to 5 AM Sunday for East Coastal Massachusetts including Boston and Eastern Norfolk County Mass, Cape Cod and Marthas Vineyard for 18-24″ with isolated higher amounts or a band of higher amounts in this area and wind gusts 60-70 MPH likely with isolated higher gusts to hurricane force possible. There will be considerable blowing and drifting of snow and the potential for scattered pockets of tree and power line damage with scattered to numerous pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages in portions of Cape Cod and Marthas Vineyard..
..A Blizzard Warning is now in effect from 12 AM Saturday to 12 AM Sunday for Bristol and Western and Southern Plymouth Counties for 18-24″ with isolated higher amounts or a band of higher amounts in this area and wind gusts to 60 MPH likely with isolated higher wind gusts possible. These winds could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages..
..A Blizzard Warning is now in effect from 12 AM Saturday to 12 AM Sunday for Rhode Island, Western Essex, Central and Southeast Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for 15-19″ of snow with isolated higher amounts or a band of higher amounts in this area and wind gusts to 60 MPH likely with isolated higher gusts possible. These winds could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages..
..A Winter Storm Warning is in effect from 12 AM Saturday to 12 AM Sunday for Nantucket for 9-16″ of snow and wind gusts to 70 MPH likely and hurricane force wind gusts possible. These winds could cause scattered to numerous pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect from 12 AM Saturday to 12 AM Sunday for Northern Connecticut, Worcester, Eastern Hampden, Eastern Hampshire and Eastern Franklin Counties of Massachusetts for 7-15″ of snow with isolated higher amounts possible in eastern areas of this warning and wind gusts to 45 MPH likely. These winds could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for Western Hampshire, Western Hampden and Western Franklin Counties of Massachusetts for 5-7″ of snow and wind gusts to 40 MPH possible..
..Additional Watches, Warnings and Advisories and adjustments to some warnings could be required in future updates depending on the model guidance. A shift in guidance as little as 50-100 miles east or west could have far reaching impacts on what the region experiences but the trend is clearly toward an impactful storm for almost the entire area. The greatest confidence in significant impacts is in the Blizzard and Winter Storm Warning areas..
..Minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of the Saturday Morning and particularly Saturday Evening high tide cycles are possible in East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands. This will be monitored as we get closer to this storm event..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely Saturday and potentially Sunday Morning for this significant storm system and an initial net schedule is posted below with an updated schedule posted in the last coordination message to be sent by 1000 PM Friday Evening. ARES/RACES Groups in Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island should closely monitor the progress of this system and seek advice from local leadership. Pictures and videos of snowfall, wind damage and coastal flooding when the event unfolds can be sent as a reply to the message or to the email address pics@nsradio.org..

Models are all showing a powerful coastal storm system will impact Southern New England late Friday Night into Saturday Night. Model solutions have trended closer to the coast for a major winter storm and blizzard for the region. The current forecast and headlines depict current thinking with models coalescing on a solution a bit to the west even since last night’s update and increasing confidence in high-end to extreme snowfall totals in Eastern New England with higher snow totals in Western New England. Key factors include:

1.) The all important forecast track of this system is still in flux. All models forecast a very intense coastal storm but vary on the track and ensemble models which are a compilation of model outputs have a wider spread than normal and will be monitored. Deviation of 50-100 miles to the west means a greater area of our region gets impacted with significant snowfall and higher winds while a track further east could confine impacts to central and eastern New England. Trends since the last coordination message have mostly shifted west even with the most easterly reliable model solution. This has created higher confidence in a very impactful storm for the region. Trends through the day will be monitored and will depict additional watches, possible warnings and advisories for various weather hazards from this system.
2.) The western envelope of the system and how far back west the precipitation and wind shield gets. Most models bring this fairly significantly westward while other models show a sharper cutoff affecting the current newly issued Winter Storm Watch area for the east slopes of the Berkshires. This has led to a higher confidence forecast for heavier snow in areas such as Hartford, Springfield and Worcester and now has extreme snowfall depicted for Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island.
3.) There will be the potential for extreme snowfall rates of 4-5″ per hour in eastern portions of the Winter Storm Warning area and in the Blizzard Warning area. This may allow for even higher totals than currently forecasted and will be monitored closely. Frequent spotter reports on snowfall will help determine the snowfall ranges in realtime as the storm hits.
4.) The strongest winds are currently timed between the two high tide cycles but minor to pockets of moderate coastal flooding are likely in East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands and if those winds shift to one of the high tide cycles it could increase the risk of greater coastal flooding at the time of high tides both Saturday morning and Saturday Evening with the northern coastal exposures of East Coastal Massachusetts at highest risk.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely Saturday and potentially Sunday Morning for this significant storm system and an initial net schedule is posted below with an updated schedule posted in the last coordination message to be sent by 1000 PM Friday Evening. ARES/RACES Groups in Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island should closely monitor the progress of this system and seek advice from local leadership. Pictures and videos of snowfall, wind damage and coastal flooding when the event unfolds can be sent as a reply to the message or to the email address pics@nsradio.org.

Below is an approximate Amateur Radio Net Schedule and will be updated again Friday Evening, after these initial nets, net control will announce the next net to take place on the frequencies listed below:

600 AM: Cape Cod and Islands WX Net – 147.375-Falmouth Repeater PL: 110.9 Hz
700 AM: South Coast SKYWARN Net: 147.000-Dartmouth Repeater PL: 67.0 Hz
700 AM: Norfolk County SKYWARN Net: 146.895-Walpole Repeater PL: 123.0 Hz
715 AM: NB1RI RI SKYWARN Net: NB1RI linked repeater system
730 AM: Hartford-Tolland County SKYWARN Net – 146.790-Vernon, CT Repeater – PL: 82.5 Hz
730 AM: Western Mass Emergency Net – HF – serving Western and Eastern Mass and surrounding areas: 3944 KHz
800 AM: Cape and Islands SKYWARN Net – 146.955-Barnstable Repeater PL: 88.5 Hz

Other frequencies for nets to be scheduled and updated by the next coordination message:
147.180-Bridgewater Repeater
146.640-Waltham Repeater
145.230-Boston Repeater
MMRA Repeater Network
146.970-Paxton Repeater
146.940-Mount Tom Repeater

Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 PM Friday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Blizzard Warning/Winter Storm Warning/Watch Statement, Snowfall Maps and Area Forecast Discussion:

NWS Boston/Norton Blizzard Warning/Winter Storm Warning/Watch Statement & Snowfall Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&product=AFD&issuedby=BOX

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..A potential major winter storm will impact portions of Southern New England, particularly Eastern New England, late Friday Night into Saturday Night with heavy snowfall, the potential for blizzard or near blizzard conditions for a portion of the region, strong to damaging winds in East and South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and the potential for minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide cycles particularly Saturday Evening but also Saturday Morning as well. Model consensus has firmed up a bit today but still some uncertainties in the forecast for western areas and the potential for even more extreme snowfall accumulations than noted here..
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for all of Rhode Island and Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Norfolk, Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes and Nantucket Counties of Massachusetts from Late Saturday Night through Sunday Evening for 15-24″ of snow and isolated higher amounts with wind gusts up to 55 MPH in the interior and 65-70 MPH Gusts with isolated higher gusts in Coastal Southern New England. These winds could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages with the potential for numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages over parts of Cape Cod and the Islands..
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Tolland and Windham Counties of Connecticut, Worcester, North-Central Middlesex and Western Essex Counties of Massachusetts Late Friday Night through Saturday Evening for 8-17″ of snow with the highest amounts in the eastern portions of this Winter Storm Watch area with wind gusts of up to 40-45 MPH possible..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for Hartford, Eastern Franklin, Eastern Hampshire and Eastern Hampden Counties of Massachusetts for 4-9″ of snow and wind gusts up to 40 MPH possible..
..Additional Watches, Warnings and Advisories could be required in future updates depending on the model guidance. A shift in guidance as little as 50-100 miles east or west could have far reaching impacts on what the region experiences. The greatest confidence in significant impacts is in the current Winter Storm Watch areas but could shift into other parts of the region depending on the track and the western edge of the major storm envelope..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely Saturday and potentially Sunday Morning for this significant storm system. ARES/RACES Groups in Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island should closely monitor the progress of this system and seek advice from local leadership. Pictures and videos of snowfall, wind damage and coastal flooding when the event unfolds can be sent as a reply to the message or to the email address pics@nsradio.org..

Models are all showing a powerful coastal storm system will impact Southern New England late Friday Night into Saturday Night. Model solutions are still moving and have spread in the guidance and therefore we need to monitor closely the trends. The current forecast and headlines depict current thinking with models coalescing on a solution a bit to the west and increasing confidence in high-end to extreme snowfall totals in Eastern New England with higher snow totals in Western New England. Key factors include:

1.) The all important forecast track of this system is still in flux. All models forecast a very intense coastal storm but vary on the track and ensemble models which are a compilation of model outputs have a wider spread than normal and will be monitored. Deviation of 50-100 miles to the west means a greater area of our region gets impacted with significant snowfall and higher winds while a track further east could confine impacts to southeast coastal New England. Trends since the last coordination message have mostly shifted west except for one reliable model suite which shifted east. This creates more spread but removing the one model suite as an outlier means a general trend westward which is why Winter Storm Watches have been expanded north and west in the region. Trends through the day will be monitored and will depict additional watches, possible warnings and advisories for various weather hazards from this system.
2.) The western envelope of the system and how far back west the precipitation and wind shield gets. Some models bring this fairly significantly westward while other models show a sharper cutoff west of the current Winter Storm Watch areas. With the storm track shift mostly west by most models, this cutoff zone has also shifted further west which is why the Winter Storm Watch area has been expanded through the rest of Northern Connecticut and into Western Massachusetts along and east of the Connecticut River.
3.) Timing and strength of the strongest winds and how far west this extends which will determine wind damage impacts in Eastern New England and how far inland it reaches along with coastal flood impacts.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely Saturday and potentially Sunday Morning for this significant storm system. ARES/RACES Groups in Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island should closely monitor the progress of this system and seek advice from local leadership. Pictures and videos of snowfall, wind damage and coastal flooding when the event unfolds can be sent as a reply to the message or to the email address pics@nsradio.org. Another coordination message will be posted by 1100 AM Friday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Watch Statement, Snowfall Maps and Area Forecast Discussion:

NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Watch Statement & Snowfall Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&product=AFD&issuedby=BOX

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..A potential major winter storm will impact portions of Southern New England, particularly Eastern New England, late Friday Night into Saturday Night with heavy snowfall, the potential for blizzard or near blizzard conditions for a portion of the region, strong to damaging winds in East and South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and the potential for minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide cycles particularly Saturday Evening but also Saturday Morning as well. We are still 2.5-3 days away from the storm impacts so future model runs will determine impacts and there remains spread in the model tracks..
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for all of Rhode Island and Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Norfolk, Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes and Nantucket Counties of Massachusetts from Late Saturday Night through Sunday Evening for 8-18″ of snow and isolated higher amounts with wind gusts 35-50 MPH in the interior and 50-60+ MPH Gusts in Coastal Southern New England. These winds could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for Tolland and Windham Counties of Connecticut, Worcester, North-Central Middlesex and Western Essex Counties of Massachusetts Late Friday Night through Saturday Evening for 8-17″ of snow with the highest amounts in the eastern portions of this Winter Storm Watch area with wind gusts of up to 45 MPH possible..
..Additional Watches, Warnings and Advisories could be required in future updates depending on the model guidance. A shift in guidance as little as 50-100 miles east or west could have far reaching impacts on what the region experiences. The greatest confidence in significant impacts is in the current Winter Storm Watch areas but could shift into other parts of the region depending on the track and the western edge of the major storm envelope..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely Saturday and potentially Sunday Morning for this significant storm system. ARES/RACES Groups in Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island should closely monitor the progress of this system and seek advice from local leadership. Pictures and videos of snowfall, wind damage and coastal flooding when the event unfolds can be sent as a reply to the message or to the email address pics@nsradio.org..

Models are all showing a powerful coastal storm system will impact Southern New England late Friday Night into Saturday Night. Model solutions are still moving and have spread in the guidance and therefore we need to monitor closely the trends. The current forecast and headlines depict current thinking but please note that we are 2.5-3 days away from impacts and trends in guidance of 50-100 miles east or west could have far reaching effect on the impacts to the region. Key factors include:

1.) The all important forecast track of this system is still in flux. All models forecast a very intense coastal storm but vary on the track and ensemble models which are a compilation of model outputs have a wider spread than normal and will be monitored. Deviation of 50-100 miles to the west means a greater area of our region gets impacted with significant snowfall and higher winds while a track further east could confine impacts to southeast coastal New England. Trends since the last coordination message have mostly shifted west except for one reliable model suite which shifted east. This creates more spread but removing the one model suite as an outlier means a general trend westward which is why Winter Storm Watches have been expanded north and west in the region. Trends through the day will be monitored and will depict additional watches, possible warnings and advisories for various weather hazards from this system.
2.) The western envelope of the system and how far back west the precipitation and wind shield gets. Some models bring this fairly significantly westward while other models show a sharper cutoff west of the current Winter Storm Watch areas. With the storm track shift mostly west by most models, this cutoff zone has also shifted further west which is why the Winter Storm Watch area has been expanded through Central Connecticut an Central Massachusetts.
3.) Timing and strength of the strongest winds and how far west this extends which will determine wind damage impacts in Eastern New England and how far inland it reaches along with coastal flood impacts.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely Saturday and potentially Sunday Morning for this significant storm system. ARES/RACES Groups in Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island should closely monitor the progress of this system and seek advice from local leadership. Pictures and videos of snowfall, wind damage and coastal flooding when the event unfolds can be sent as a reply to the message or to the email address pics@nsradio.org. Another coordination message will be posted by 1100 PM Thursday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Watch Statement, Snowfall Maps and Area Forecast Discussion:

NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Watch Statement & Snowfall Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&product=AFD&issuedby=BOX

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..A potential major winter storm will impact portions of Southern New England, particularly Eastern New England, late Friday Night into Saturday Night with heavy snowfall, the potential for blizzard or near blizzard conditions for a portion of the region, strong to damaging winds in East and South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and the potential for minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide cycles particularly Saturday Evening but also Saturday Morning as well. We are still 2.5-3 days away from the storm impacts so future model runs will determine impacts and there remains spread in the model tracks..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for all of Rhode Island and Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Norfolk, Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes and Nantucket Counties of Massachusetts from Late Saturday Night through Sunday Evening for 8-18″ of snow and isolated higher amounts with wind gusts 35-50 MPH in the interior and 50-60+ MPH Gusts in Coastal Southern New England. These winds could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..Additional Watches, Warnings and Advisories could be required in future updates depending on the model guidance. A shift in guidance as little as 50-100 miles east or west could have far reaching impacts on what the region experiences. The greatest confidence in significant impacts is in the current Winter Storm Watch area but could shift into other parts of the region depending on the track and the western edge of the major storm envelope..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely Saturday and potentially Sunday Morning for this significant storm system. ARES/RACES Groups in Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island should closely monitor the progress of this system and seek advice from local leadership. Pictures and videos of snowfall, wind damage and coastal flooding when the event unfolds can be sent as a reply to the message or to the email address pics@nsradio.org..

Models are all showing a powerful coastal storm system will impact Southern New England late Friday Night into Saturday Night. Model solutions are still moving and have spread in the guidance and therefore we need to monitor closely the trends. The current forecast and headlines depict current thinking but please note that we are 2.5-3 days away from impacts and trends in guidance of 50-100 miles east or west could have far reaching effect on the impacts to the region. Key factors include:

1.) The all important forecast track of this system is still in flux. All models forecast a very intense coastal storm but vary on the track and ensemble models which are a compilation of model outputs have a wider spread than normal and will be monitored. Deviation of 50-100 miles to the west means a greater area of our region gets impacted with significant snowfall and higher winds while a track further east could confine impacts to southeast coastal New England. Trends over the last 24 hours have trended a bit east but could easily trend back a bit west and will be monitored through the overnight into tomorrow.
2.) The western envelope of the system and how far back west the precipitation and wind shield gets. Some models bring this fairly significantly westward while other models show a sharper cutoff west of the current Winter Storm Watch area. This is why the Winter Storm Watch area is currently over Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts from Cape Ann to Boston to Hopkinton and points south.
3.) Timing and strength of the strongest winds and how far west this extends which will determine wind damage impacts in Eastern New England and how far inland it reaches along with coastal flood impacts.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely Saturday and potentially Sunday Morning for this significant storm system. ARES/RACES Groups in Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island should closely monitor the progress of this system and seek advice from local leadership. Pictures and videos of snowfall, wind damage and coastal flooding when the event unfolds can be sent as a reply to the message or to the email address pics@nsradio.org. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Thursday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Watch Statement, Snowfall Maps and Area Forecast Discussion:

NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Watch Statement & Snowfall Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&product=AFD&issuedby=BOX

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Hello to all…

We appreciate everyone’s patience as we make an off-topic post on the need for Amateur Radio Volunteers for the 2022 Boston Marathon. In addition, there is a continued need for medical volunteers for the 2022 Boston Marathon and those interested in volunteering as a medical or general volunteer can use the register.hamradioboston.org link are brought to the general volunteer page which can be utilized for those that are not Amateur Radio Operators to volunteer. Further details for Amateur Radio volunteers follow below:

Planning is well underway for the 2022 Boston Marathon! The BAA opened volunteer registration continues to be open and it will close on Friday, February 18, 2022. Returning volunteers should have received an email from the BAA with details about how to register.

New volunteers can sign up via http://register.hamradioboston.org/

We have also provided a step by step guide on how to select Amateur Radio volunteer positions during the registration process:
https://hamradioboston.freshdesk.com/support/solutions/articles/44002294773-2022-volunteer-registration-step-by-step-guide

If you have any questions about the upcoming volunteer registration period, or the 2022 Marathon generally, please get in touch anytime via the email address contact@hamradioboston.org

Thank you, and 73,

Boston Marathon Communications Committee
contact@HamRadioBoston.org

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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Hello to all…

..Accumulating ocean effect snow is expected across Eastern Plymouth County and Barnstable County Massachusetts (Cape Cod) today through Saturday Afternoon. Heaviest and most consistent banding of snow will be late tonight into Saturday Morning. Snowfall amounts will be highly variable even within specific communities given the narrow banding that can occur with the ocean effect snow so having many spotter reports even from the same community including photos where possible will be helpful in understanding snowfall amounts in this region..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through 400 PM Saturday Afternoon for Eastern Plymouth and Barnstable Counties of Massachusetts for 1-4″ of snow with locally higher amounts possible causing slippery travel and reduced visibility. Other parts of Plymouth County into Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket could see a coating to 2″ of snow..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor ocean effect snow today through Saturday Afternoon and the Cape Cod & Islands WX Net on the 147.375-Falmouth Repeater for Saturday at 6 AM will be monitored for snowfall reports. This will be the only coordination message on this event unless a significant update to the situation occurs and time allows for an update. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Winter Weather Advisory statement, snowfall maps, Special Weather Statement, and Area Forecast Discussion..

NWS Boston/Norton Winter Weather Advisory Statement & Snowfall Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

NWS Special Weather Statement – Ocean Effect Snow on the Islands and other parts of Plymouth County Mass:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&product=SPS&issuedby=BOX

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&product=AFD&issuedby=BOX

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Hello to all…

..After the strong wind gusts this afternoon, rain will change to snow with a light accumulating snowfall of a dusting to 3 inches across Connecticut, Rhode Island, South-Central and Southeast Massachusetts Thursday Morning to early afternoon creating some slippery travel during the Thursday Morning commute. Colder temperatures will move in later Thursday into the weekend..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for snowfall reports/totals Thursday Morning through early afternoon on various repeaters. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement, Snowfall Maps and Area Forecast Discussion..

NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&product=SPS&issuedby=BOX

NWS Boston/Norton Snowfall Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&product=AFD&issuedby=BOX

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Hello to all…

..Strong wind gusts expected for a portion of Southeast New England Wednesday Afternoon into early evening with a period of light snow of at least a coating to 2″ expected on Thursday particularly along and south of the Mass Pike with isolated higher amounts possible..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 12-6 PM Wednesday for Eastern and Southern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH. Coastal areas outside of the advisory area could see wind gusts of around 40 MPH and inland areas gusts of 30-40 MPH. These winds could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the strong winds for Wednesday and the light snow potential for Thursday. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Wednesday Morning on the strong winds for Wednesday and light snows for Thursday. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Wind Advisory Statement, Snowfall Maps and Area Forecast Discussion..

NWS Boston/Norton Wind Advisory Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&product=NPW&issuedby=BOX

NWS Boston/Norton Snowfall Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&product=AFD&issuedby=BOX

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Hello to all…

..Active weather pattern continues focusing on the major storm system for Sunday Night into Monday storm which features heavy snow and/or icing changing to rain before ending in northern and western portions of the area, heavy rain and strong to damaging winds in eastern areas and coastal Southern New England and coastal flood concerns along the east and south facing coastal areas of Southern New England.
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect from for Western Franklin, Western Hampshire, Western Hampden Counties of Massachusetts from 12 AM tonight to 12 PM Monday for 6-12″ of snow with snowfall rates of 2″ per hour and wind gusts to 40 MPH. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect from 12 AM tonight to 12 PM Monday Northern Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for 4-8″ of snow and wind gusts to 40 MPH..
..A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from Midnight tonight to 7 AM Monday for Eastern Franklin County Massachusetts for 3-5″ of wet snow and is also in effect for Northern Connecticut, Eastern Hampshire, Eastern Hampden, Southern Worcester, and Central Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for 1-4″ of snow and a light glaze of ice..
..A High Wind Warning remains in effect for South Coastal Rhode Island and South Coastal Rhode Island from 1 AM to 10 AM and from 1 AM to 12 PM for Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Eastern Plymouth Counties and Cape Cod and the Islands for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 65-70 MPH. These winds will cause scattered to numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Wind Advisory remains in effect for Central Middlesex, Western Essex, Western Norfolk, Southeast Middlesex, Northern Bristol and Western Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts and North-Central Rhode Island from 4-10 AM Monday for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH. These winds will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect from 9 AM to 1 PM Monday for the Monday Morning high tide cycle for East Coastal Massachusetts for widespread minor to pockets of moderate coastal flooding at the time of the Monday Morning high tide cycle. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect from 9 AM to 1 PM for Cape Cod and the Islands for widespread minor to isolated pockets of moderate coastal flooding at the time of the Monday Morning high tide cycle and a Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect from 6 AM-9 AM for south coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island for minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely late Sunday Night and especially Monday Morning through early afternoon for multiple storm hazards from this storm system with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets likely. Amateur Radio Net info is listed below and note a few of the updates and changes listed below..

*No major changes to the forecast. Please note that due a technical issue on the NWS web site – the snowfall maps on the site are not updated. Snowfall amounts in this message are the latest updated info*
*Updated Net information follows in the net section of the message. Remainder is unchanged.*

For the Sunday Night into Monday Evening storm system, the track that is favored is across Eastern Pennsylvania and East-Central New York. This means a front-end thump of snow and ice across Northern and Western Massachusetts with areas of Northern Connecticut, Northwest Rhode Island and interior Northeast Massachusetts seeing snow and mixed precipitation changing over to rain. The coastal plain will see snow quickly changing to a period of heavy rain with this system. In addition, there will be strong to damaging winds across Coastal Southern New England potentially in interior Southern New England with the potential for minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide across East and possibly South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island. The headlines depict the current thinking and key factors will include:

1.) The exact track of the storm system as a further west track will mean less snow and more rain even in northern and northwest part of our coverage area. A track further east would mean more snow and ice for interior Southern New England. Coastal areas will likely see a quick changeover to rain unless their is a significant change in the track further east. The track is slightly further east such that heavier snow is expected across the Berkshires and eastern slopes of the Berkshires and Northern Worcester County with advisory level snowfall elsewhere in Northern Connecticut and Western and Central Massachusetts in the lower elevations.
2.) The extent of the strong to damaging winds across the region. There will be very strong winds aloft and the key to the extent of wind damage will be how well it gets to the surface and whether it penetrates inland versus being confined to coastal areas. High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories are now in effect as the headlines depict for Rhode Island and much of Eastern Massachusetts. The strongest winds will be in the coastal areas and also in any convective showers and possibly even a thunderstorm or two that could be embedded in the heavy rain area which will help transport the stronger winds down to the surface. In interior locations, particularly those areas that receive snow and ice, the wind will also bear watching as if those winds are able to make the surface with wet snow and/or ice on trees and power lines, it could allow for pockets of damage due to that combination of winds, snow and ice.
3.) A Coastal Flood Warning is now posted for East Coastal Massachusetts and a Coastal Flood Advisory is now posted for Cape Cod and the Islands for widespread minor to pockets of moderate coastal flooding with the greatest risk for moderate coastal flooding in the Coastal Flood Warning area. This will be monitored closely during the storm event.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely late Sunday Night and especially Monday Morning through early afternoon for multiple storm hazards from this storm system with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets likely. We have listed the latest net information below and this is the last coordination message as we move into operations mode. Here is SKYWARN Net info for this storm event and note some changes to this info:

Western Massachusetts ARES will activate an ARES-SKYWARN Net on HF starting at 630 AM ET Monday on 3944 KHz for those that have HF capability and will be called hourly through at least 1130 AM or 1230 PM. All areas welcome to give SKYWARN reports and not just Western Massachusetts.
Western Mass SKYWARN Net on the 146.940 PL: 127.3 Hz repeater starting at 700 AM ET Monday with subsequent nets announced on the net frequency
SKYWARN Net on the 146.970-Paxton Repeater PL: 114.8 Hz – Net schedule 700 AM ET Monday with subsequent nets announced on the net frequency
SKYWARN Net on the 146.790-Vernon CT Repeater PL: 82.5 Hz – Net Schedule 700 AM ET Monday with subsequent nets announced on the net frequency
The Cape and Islands Weather Net on 147.375-Falmouth Repeater Repeater will be monitored at 600 AM with subsequent nets on the 146.955-Barnstable Repeater to track coastal flooding and strong to damaging winds later in the morning.

Local area repeaters that will be monitored for strong to damaging winds and coastal flooding as needed and may have formal nets if conditions warrant on a short fused basis:
NB1RI – Repeater System
147.000-Dartmouth Repeater
145.470-Danvers Repeater
146.640-Waltham Repeater
145.230-Boston Repeater
147.180-Bridgewater Repeater
146.895-Walpole Repeater
146.685-Plymouth Repeater

Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Snowfall Maps, High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Warning/Advisory Statement, and Area Forecast Discussion:

NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement & Snowfall Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&product=NPW&issuedby=BOX

NWS Boston/Norton Coastal Flood Warning/Advisory Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&product=CFW&issuedby=BOX

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&product=AFD&issuedby=BOX

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box