Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across interior Southern New England Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. Timeframe would be any time between 3-10 PM Tuesday.
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has expanded the slight risk for severe weather area into Western and Central Massachusetts and into Northwest and North Central Connecticut from roughly Tyngsboro, through Worcester Massachusetts and Vernon, Connecticut west with a marginal risk for severe weather east of the Tyngsboro-Worcester-Vernon line to the Boston to Providence I-95 corridor of Eastern Massachusetts and Northwest Rhode Island..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon and Evening..

Heat and humidity will build into the region on Tuesday ahead of a cold front that will sweep through Southern New England Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. The headlines depict the current thinking which expands the highest severe weather potential into portions of North-Central Connecticut and Central Massachusetts. Key factors for the severe weather potential Tuesday remain:

1.) Amount of heating and destabilization ahead of any late Tuesday morning/early afternoon convection that may impact parts of the region.
2.) Amount of moisture that returns after any morning convection. Models show drying in the atmosphere during the afternoon with some moisture return towards late Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. If this moisture return can occur not too far past the time of peak heating, it will increase the severe weather potential. If the moisture return is too late, severe weather potential will be reduced with most thunderstorms being non-severe in nature later Tuesday Evening.
3.) Amount of forcing with the front and how quickly it moves in for the front to tap into sufficient wind shear profiles and expected moderate instability levels.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – https://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across interior Southern New England Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. Timeframe would be any time between 3-10 PM Tuesday.
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut from roughly the Connecticut River Valley west into Eastern New York in a slight risk for severe weather with a marginal risk for severe weather from east of the Connecticut River Valley to the I-95 corridor of Northwest Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon and Evening..

Heat and humidity will build into the region on Tuesday ahead of a cold front that will sweep through Southern New England Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors for the severe weather potential Tuesday include:

1.) Amount of heating and destabilization ahead of any overnight or Tuesday morning convection that may impact parts of the region.
2.) Amount of moisture that returns after any morning convection. Models show drying in the atmosphere during the afternoon with some moisture return towards late Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. If this moisture return can occur not too far past the time of peak heating, it will increase the severe weather potential. If the moisture return is too late, severe weather potential will be reduced with most thunderstorms being non-severe in nature later Tuesday Evening.
3.) Amount of forcing with the front and how quickly it moves in for the front to tap into sufficient wind shear profiles and expected moderate instability levels.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2022/day2otlk_20220711_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – https://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening across much of Southern New England with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to potential urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued much of Southern New England in a Slight Risk for severe weather except for Southeast Coastal Massachusetts and Newport County Rhode Island which are under a marginal risk for severe weather for Saturday. Timeframe is between 2-8 PM give or take 1-2 hours..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening to monitor this severe weather potential..

Overnight, clusters of strong and a couple isolated severe thunderstorms occurred in the region overnight and were still ongoing in Southeast New England with an area of showers across Southeast New York, Northern Connecticut and into Northwest and North-Central Massachusetts. This area will move through during the late morning and early afternoon hours and behind it will be some clearing and destabilization that will set the stage for a potentially active severe weather day that remains likely on Saturday Afternoon and Evening with the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in clusters or line segments to affected much of Southern New England Saturday Afternoon and Evening. There has been little change to the ongoing forecast based on the current model runs.

As is the case with strong to severe thunderstorms, not every location, city or town will see this activity but isolated to scattered pockets of strong to severe thunderstorms will affect the region as a cold front brings an end to intense heat and humidity to the region. Conditions will dry out late Saturday Night into Sunday Morning from northwest to southeast allowing for nice summer weather for July 4th long weekend activities from Sunday Afternoon through Monday Evening. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors remain:

1.) There continues to be some shower and thunderstorm activity this Saturday Morning which should clear out from the area in the late morning and early afternoon hours per radar and satellite imagery. The amount of clearing to allow for more intense destabilization after this activity moves through will be a key factor in determining the extent of strong to severe thunderstorms during the time of peak heating Saturday Afternoon and Evening.
2.) If there is strong clearing with the favorable wind shear profiles in place, this could allow for more a potent severe weather event across the region and this will be monitored.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening to monitor this severe weather potential. This will be the last coordination message as we shift further into operations mode as we have been active during the overnight and early morning period. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – https://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening across much of Southern New England with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to potential urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued much of Southern New England in a Slight Risk for severe weather except for Southeast Coastal Massachusetts and Newport County Rhode Island which are under a marginal risk for severe weather for Saturday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening to monitor this severe weather potential..

A potentially active severe weather day remains likely on Saturday Afternoon and Evening with the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in clusters or line segments to affected much of Southern New England Saturday Afternoon and Evening. There has been little change to the ongoing forecast based on the current model runs.

As is the case with strong to severe thunderstorms, not every location, city or town will see this activity but isolated to scattered pockets of strong to severe thunderstorms will affect the region as a cold front brings an end to intense heat and humidity to the region. Conditions will dry out late Saturday Night into Sunday Morning from northwest to southeast allowing for nice summer weather for July 4th long weekend activities from Sunday Afternoon through Monday Evening. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors remain:

1.) There will be some shower and thunderstorm activity (most likely non-severe) late Friday Night through early Saturday Morning. The amount of clearing to allow for more intense destabilization after this activity moves through will be a key factor in determining the extent of strong to severe thunderstorms during the time of peak heating Saturday Afternoon and Evening.
2.) If there is strong clearing with the favorable wind shear profiles in place, this could allow for more a potent severe weather event across the region and this will be monitored.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening to monitor this severe weather potential. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 AM Saturday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2022/day2otlk_20220701_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – https://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening across much of Southern New England with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to potential urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a Slight Risk for severe weather except for Southeast Coastal Massachusetts and Newport County Rhode Island which are under a marginal risk for severe weather for Saturday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening to monitor this severe weather potential..

A potentially active severe weather day is likely on Saturday Afternoon and Evening with the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in clusters or line segments to affected much of Southern New England Saturday Afternoon and Evening. As is the case with strong to severe thunderstorms, not every location, city or town will see this activity but isolated to scattered pockets of strong to severe thunderstorms will affect the region as a cold front brings an end to intense heat and humidity to the region. Conditions will dry out late Saturday Night into Sunday Morning from northwest and Southeast allowing for nice summer weather for July 4th long weekend activities from Sunday Afternoon through Monday Evening. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) There will be some shower and thunderstorm activity (most likely non-severe) late Friday Night and early Saturday Morning. The amount of clearing to allow for more intense destabilization after this activity moves through will be a key factor in determining the extent of strong to severe thunderstorms during the time of peak heating Saturday Afternoon and Evening.
2.) If there is strong clearing with the favorable wind shear profiles in place, this could allow for more a potent severe weather event across the region and this will be monitored.
3.) There will also be the possibility for some isolated thunderstorms Friday Afternoon and early evening but are expected to be typical non-severe thunderstorms though this will also be monitored.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening to monitor this severe weather potential. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 PM Saturday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – https://twitter.com/wx1box