Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe thunderstorms remain possible to likely in interior Southern New England with the greatest potential in Western, Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts, Northern Connecticut into Northwest Rhode Island where the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed this area in a slight risk for severe weather but areas across interior North-Central Rhode Island through Eastern Massachusetts along and west of I-95 corridor to the coast should also monitor as SPC has these areas in a marginal risk for severe weather. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. Threat timeframe is anytime between 12 PM-10 PM Friday Afternoon and Evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this severe weather potential for Friday Afternoon and Evening across the region..

A cold front will move through the region timed with peak heating and will bring the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across interior Southern New England. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Sufficient heating and destabilization ahead of the cold front timed near peak heating to allow for enough instability for strong to severe thunderstorm development. That is occurring with abundant sunshine over the area and even in Eastern New York where a few showers have developed, there is still sufficient sunshine allowing for heating and destabilization.
2.) Sufficient forcing as the front moves into the region to tap into and trigger the instability in the atmosphere for severe thunderstorm development. That is expected to be in place per latest forecast models.
3.) Sufficiently strong wind shear values making it far enough south with proper jet stream orientation to allow for severe thunderstorm development. This is also in place per latest forecast models.
4.) If the 3 above factors can align, it could bring the typical main threats of strong to damaging winds and hail to be a bit more widespread and also have a secondary risk of an isolated tornado in our coverage area. As is typical of these situations, not every location will see a strong to severe thunderstorm but the coverage could be a bit more extensive if factors 1-3 line up.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Friday Afternoon and Evening across the region. This is the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe thunderstorms are possible to likely in interior Southern New England with the greatest potential in Western, Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut where the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed this area in a slight risk for severe weather but areas across interior North-Central Rhode Island through Eastern Massachusetts along and west of I-95 corridor should also monitor as SPC has these areas in a marginal risk for severe weather. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. Threat timeframe is anytime between 12 PM-10 PM Friday Afternoon and Evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this severe weather potential for Friday Afternoon and Evening across the region..

A cold front will move through the region timed with peak heating and will bring the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across interior Southern New England. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Sufficient heating and destabilization ahead of the cold front timed near peak heating to allow for enough instability for strong to severe thunderstorm development. That is currently expected to be in place.
2.) Sufficient forcing as the front moves into the region to tap into and trigger the instability in the atmosphere for severe thunderstorm development.
3.) Sufficiently strong wind shear values making it far enough south with proper jet stream orientation to allow for severe thunderstorm development.
4.) If the 3 above factors can align, it could bring the typical main threats of strong to damaging winds and hail to be a bit more widespread and also have a secondary risk of an isolated tornado in our coverage area.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Friday Afternoon and Evening across the region. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 AM Friday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2022/day2otlk_20220825_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org

Hello to all…

..Another day of potentially beneficial rain, particularly for Western, Central and Northeast Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut with lesser chances but still some beneficial rain possible for Southeast New England. Similar to yesterday, general rainfall amounts will likely be from 0.10-1.00″ with isolated higher amounts of 1-3″ in those areas that get slow moving thunderstorms with heavy downpours. The downpours may lead to localized urban and poor drainage flooding. Severe weather potential is low but a slightly better chance for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm or two over interior Southern New England with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning as secondary threats to the heavy downpours. Threat timeframe is between 2-9 PM EDT today..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for rain gauge, flood and any severe weather reports this Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, SKYWARN and Amateur Radio log of rainfall reports and Public Information Statement on rainfall in the region..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

WX1BOX SKYWARN and Amateur Radio Log of Rainfall Reports:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/reports_8_22_22_rev_2.pdf

NWS Public Information Statement – Rainfall Reports:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2208231221.nous41.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org

Hello to all…

..Beneficial Rainfall today for portions of Southern New England. General amounts will be 0.10-1.00″ but there are and will be isolated amounts of 1-2″ of rain with even higher amounts in localized areas that receive thunderstorms and heavy downpours. Some localized urban and poor drainage flooding may occur in those areas that receive localized downpours if rainfall falls at 1″ or more in an hour or less. The severe weather potential is quite low but will be monitored in parts of Southeast New England as a warm front pushes through the area..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for rain gauge and any flooding and other SKYWARN reportable criteria. This is the only coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org

Hello to all…

..A coastal storm has the potential to bring beneficial rainfall to Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island with strong winds across East and South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island with the strongest winds across Cape Cod and the Islands..
..A Wind Advisory is in effect from from 12 AM to 3 PM Wednesday for Cape Cod and Nantucket Island for sustained winds 15-25 MPH with gusts of 45 MPH with isolated higher gusts possible. Other parts of East Coastal and South Coastal Massachusetts and South Coastal Rhode Island could see wind gusts around 40 MPH Wednesday. These winds coupled with the rainfall and drought conditions could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for wind damage and rain gauge reports Wednesday..

A coastal storm will affect Eastern New England on Wednesday with beneficial rainfall as well as strong winds at the coast. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) The track of the storm system as a track even further west would bring heavier rainfall into Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island with some steadier rainfall into Western New England while a further east track would lessen the rainfall in Eastern New England as well as any strong winds. Right now, some rainfall amounts of around 0.25-1.00″ with isolated higher amounts is likely in Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island with the lower amounts in Rhode Island and the amounts higher getting towards East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands and will be monitored. Areas west of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island will see 0.25″ or less of rainfall.
2.) Winds will be as depicted above but the storm track slightly closer to the coast could result in slightly stronger winds while further away from the coast would mean less wind impacts. The drought conditions may mean a bit more impact from these kind of winds than usual given the dry conditions stress on trees.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for wind damage and rain gauge reports Wednesday. This will be the last coordination message unless a significant change to the situation occurs and time allows for an update. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion and Wind Advisory statement:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Wind Advisory Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=NPW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org

Hello to all…

..Last day of heat and humidity today for the region. Showers and thunderstorms remained below severe limits on Monday while thunderstorms Friday brought isolated severe weather to portions of interior Massachusetts and neighboring Southern New Hampshire during Friday Afternoon into early evening and isolated severe weather also occurred Sunday Afternoon and Evening in isolated to scattered locations. Saturday all storms stayed non-severe..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail and heavy downpours leading to possible urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The threat area is much of Southern New England with the best chance along or south of the Mass Pike over isolated locations.. Severe weather is expected to be similar or perhaps slightly higher than the coverage seen on Friday and Sunday though if instability, timing of front and stronger though still marginal shear do not coincide accordingly, thunderstorms could remain non-severe but the setup favors at least some isolated coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms..
..Owing to the slightly better chance at more coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..A Heat Advisory is in effect through 800 PM Tuesday for all of the coverage area except Nantucket for heat indices in the 98-102 degree range. If outdoors and physically exerting yourself, slow down, take frequent breaks and drink plenty of non-caffeinated liquids..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for this Tuesday afternoon and evening anytime from 1200-1000 PM today. This will be the only coordination message as we shift to operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Heat Advisory Statement, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and Links to the NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Reports and WX1BOX Amateur Radio Logs from Friday and Sunday’s severe weather event. Pictures of storm damage can be sent as a reply to this email, via our Facebook and Twitter feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=NPW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report – Friday 8/5/22 and Sunday 8/7/22:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/LSR_8_5_22.pdf
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/LSR_8_7_22.pdf

NWS Boston/Norton Amateur Radio Log – Friday 8/5/22 and Sunday 8/7/22:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/reports_8_5_22.pdf
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/reports_8_7_22.pdf

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org

Hello to all…

..Extended period of heat and humidity continues through Tuesday for the region. Thunderstorms Friday brought Isolated severe weather to portions of interior Massachusetts and neighboring Southern New Hampshire during Friday Afternoon into early evening and isolated severe weather also occurred Sunday Afternoon and Evening in isolated to scattered locations. Saturday all storms stayed non-severe..
..Isolated to Scattered Thunderstorms with heavy downpours as the main threat with isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail and heavy downpours leading to possible urban and poor drainage flooding are a secondary threat again Monday. The threat area is in interior Southern New England but over isolated locations. Most locations will end up largely dry today but a few isolated cities and towns in interior Southern New England could see an isolated to scattered non-severe thunderstorm with an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm possible similar ranging from what we have seen on Friday and Sunday or it could fail to produce any isolated severe thunderstorm activity like on Saturday..
..There is perhaps a slightly more elevated potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms on Tuesday as a cold front slowly moves toward Southern New England providing a bit more of a trigger and somewhat higher shear for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development and this will be detailed in a coordination message later Monday Night or Tuesday Morning..
..A Heat Advisory is in effect through 800 PM Tuesday for all of the coverage area except Nantucket for heat indices in the 98-102 degree range. If outdoors and physically exerting yourself, slow down, take frequent breaks and drink plenty of non-caffeinated liquids..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the isolated severe weather potential for this Monday afternoon and evening anytime from 200-800 PM today. This will be the only coordination message as we shift to operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Heat Advisory Statement and Links to the NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Reports and WX1BOX Amateur Radio Logs from Friday and Sunday’s severe weather event. Pictures of storm damage can be sent as a reply to this email, via our Facebook and Twitter feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=NPW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report – Friday 8/5/22 and Sunday 8/7/22:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/LSR_8_5_22.pdf
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/LSR_8_7_22.pdf

NWS Boston/Norton Amateur Radio Log – Friday 8/5/22 and Sunday 8/7/22:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/reports_8_5_22.pdf
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/reports_8_7_22.pdf

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org

Hello to all…

..Extended period of heat and humidity continues through early next week for the region. Thunderstorms yesterday brought Isolated severe weather to portions of interior Massachusetts and neighboring Southern New Hampshire during Friday Afternoon into early evening..
..Isolated to Scattered Thunderstorms with heavy downpours as the main threat with isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail and heavy downpours leading to possible urban and poor drainage flooding are a secondary threat again Saturday. The threat area is in interior Southern New England but over isolated locations. Most locations will end up largely dry today but a few isolated cities and towns in interior Southern New England could see an isolated to scattered non-severe thunderstorm with an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm possible similar to what was seen on Friday..
..A Heat Advisory is in effect through 800 PM Sunday for all of the coverage area except Nantucket for heat indices in the 98-100 degree range. If outdoors and physically exerting yourself, slow down, take frequent breaks and drink plenty of non-caffeinated liquids..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the isolated severe weather potential for this Saturday afternoon and evening anytime from 200-800 PM today. This will be the only coordination message as we shift to operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Heat Advisory Statement and Links to the NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report and WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=NPW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/LSR_8_5_22.pdf

NWS Boston/Norton Amateur Radio Log:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/reports_8_5_22.pdf

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org

Hello to all…

..Extended period of heat and humidity through early next week for the region. Isolated to Scattered Thunderstorms with heavy downpours as the main threat with isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail and heavy downpours leading to possible urban and poor drainage flooding are a secondary threat. The threat area is in interior Southern New England but over isolated locations. Most locations will end up largely dry today but a few isolated cities and towns in interior Southern New England could see an isolated to scattered non-severe thunderstorm with an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm possible…
..A Heat Advisory is in effect through 800 PM for all of the coverage area except Nantucket for heat indices in the 98-100 degree range. If outdoors and physically exerting yourself, slow down, take frequent breaks and drink plenty of non-caffeinated liquids..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the isolated severe weather potential for this afternoon and evening anytime from 200-800 PM today. This will be the only coordination message as we shift to operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion and Heat Advisory Statement..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=NPW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org

Hello to all…

..Most thunderstorms will be of the non-severe general thunderstorm variety but an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm is also possible across interior Southern New England particularly Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut for this Tuesday Afternoon and Evening between around 2-8 PM. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours would be the main threats..
..Weak shear and other instability parameters will keep any severe weather potential isolated but a few isolated locations could see a strong to severe thunderstorm enough to post a coordination message on the potential. The strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to be of the marginal, pulse-type variety..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for this Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the only coordination message as we move into monitoring mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org