August 2023

Special Announcement: Amateur Radio Hurricane Nets Activating for Hurricane Idalia and Northwest/Northern Florida, Southeast Georgia & Carolinas Impacts

August 29, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

The Amateur Radio VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Net will be active for Hurricane Idalia and impacts on Northwest/Northern Florida, Southeast Georgia and the Carolinas. Details on their net activation plans can be seen at the following links:

VoIP Hurricane Net:
https://www.voipwx.net

Hurricane Watch Net:
https://www.hwn.org

For any SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators in our region who may have friends and family in the affected area and have the ability to provide surface weather or damage reports, pictures and videos, reports can be provided over these nets with reports, pictures and videos provided to WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org

We hope everyone in the affected area stays safe as Hurricane Idalia approaches.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – https://twitter.com/wx1box
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Severe Weather/Flood Coordination Message #1 – Friday 8/25/23 – Flood/Severe Weather Potential

August 25, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..A widespread rainfall of 1-2″ of rain with isolated higher amounts of 2-3″+ is likely through Friday Evening as a warm front passes through Southern New England. It could also bring a risk for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding, and frequent lightning. The severe weather potential is contingent on the position of the warm front to allow for greater levels of instability or strong wind shear and turning in the atmosphere to overcome limited instability..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Friday. Another more complete coordination message will be posted Friday Morning presuming time allows and self-activation operations have not already begun. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and Rainfall Map..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

NWS Boston/Norton Rainfall Map:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Total_Rain_08-25-2023-1.png

Respectfully Submitted,

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Special Announcement: Northeast HamXposition SKYWARN Training Class Friday 8/25/23 at 200 PM & Advanced Topics in SKYWARN Class Saturday 8/26/23 at 300 PM

August 23, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

The regional Amateur Radio show known as Northeast HamXposition will feature many forums on Emergency & Public Service Communications as well as the traditional NWS Norton SKYWARN Training class for newly interested spotters and those seeking to update their SKYWARN training. The basic SKYWARN Class is Friday Afternoon 8/25/23 at 200 PM.

An Advanced Topics in SKYWARN Class on Saturday 8/26/23 at 300 PM is an Amateur Radio driven course on how Amateur Radio and non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN spotters can provide additional support during times of severe weather and will cover some facets of radar meteorology. Details on the advanced topics in SKYWARN class and other forums including an overview presentation of the Amateur Radio VoIP Hurricane Net being held at Northeast HamXposition can be seen at the following link:

https://hamxposition.org/Schedule/

In addition, an ARES/RACES/SKYWARN booth will be setup inside the HamXpo Exhibit Hall for those interested. We hope to see many of you at the various forums and/or at the ARES/RACES/SKYWARN booth. Thanks to all for their support!

Respectfully Submitted,

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Post Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Friday 8/18/23 Severe Weather Outbreak

August 22, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Friday August 18th, 2023 brought a significant severe weather outbreak with 5 tornadoes (Scituate-Johnston-North Providence RI, North Attleborough-Mansfield MA, Stoughton, MA, Weymouth, MA and Scotland CT), pockets of severe thunderstorm wind damage, including Brockton, where an intense burst of straightline wind caused localized damage in East Brockton as part of the parent cell and east of the tornadic circulation that caused the Stoughton Tornado and widespread pockets of flash flooding in Connecticut, Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts. The event was the most significant of the 2023 Summer Season to date. NWS is also conducting a short survey on the response to the severe weather/tornado outbreak that those interested can take as the NWS looks to continue to improve its services. We sincerely appreciate all Amateur Radio and non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters who gave reports, pictures and videos of this severe weather event during and after the storm to protect life and property and properly document this historic severe weather event..
..Below are the NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report, Public Information Statement – Final & Preliminary on the tornado paths and the WX1BOX Amateur Radio log of all Amateur Radio and non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Reports received. There is also a link to the Friday 8/18/23 Facebook Photo Album from the Friday 8/18/23 severe weather outbreak and there could be a few additional photos added to it during the week and a link to the NWS survey on the services provided. Any additional reports, photos and videos can be send as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or via the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. This will likely be the only post severe weather message on the Friday 8/18/23 severe weather outbreak unless a significant update to the information occurs and time allows for an update..

NWS Local Storm Report – Severe Weather Outbreak Summary:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/LSR_8_18_23.pdf
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/LSR_8_21_23_tornado_only_LSR.pdf

NWS Public Information Statement – Updated & Preliminary:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Final_PNS_8_18_23.pdf
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Prelim_PNS_8_18_23.pdf

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Report Log:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/reports_8_18_23_rev_2.pdf

WX1BOX Facebook Photo Album:
https://www.facebook.com/media/set?vanity=wx1box&set=a.676539191174568

NWS Norton Forecast Services Survey Link:
https://t.co/1k1MwtlcR3

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Friday 8/18/23 Severe Weather Potential

August 18, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible in two rounds Friday Morning through late Afternoon Friday with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding as the primary threats with an isolated tornado as a secondary threat. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed all of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather for Friday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Friday..

A dynamic warm front followed by cold frontal system will impact Southern New England. Despite this system moving in earlier in the day than peak heating, jet dynamics will likely allow for at least isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in Southern New England. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) The level of instability that can be generated despite timing of the system prior to peak heating.

2.) Wind shear and jet dynamics with this system are more typical of fall frontal passage than summer time and these parameters may offset other unfavorable instability parameters.

3.) Whether there will be two rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms, one in the morning through early afternoon and a second round in the mid to late afternoon. This will depend on the timing of the frontal system through the region and whether conditions dry out so much ahead of the cold front that a second round of strong to severe thunderstorms are unable to develop.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Friday. Another coordination message could be issued by 9 AM Friday Morning if time allows and we are not already in operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2023/day2otlk_20230817_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday Morning 8/15/23 – Severe Weather & Flood Potential

August 14, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Another potential day of severe weather and flooding this time centered in Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts..
..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts with strong to damaging winds and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats with the secondary threat of an isolated tornado. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed this region in a marginal risk for severe weather with the timeframe between 4-11 AM Tuesday..
..A Flood Watch is now in effect from 2 AM Tuesday Morning through late Tuesday Morning for Northern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands for heavy rainfall leading to urban/poor drainage flooding along with possible small river and stream flooding. The rainfall will fall in a short period of time possibly near the Tuesday Morning commute. Areas of the flood watch will see 1-2″ of rain with isolated higher amounts of 2-4″+ in areas that get the heaviest downpours over the longest period of time..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the flood and severe weather potential focused on Tuesday Morning through early Afternoon..

Sunday brought isolated strong to severe thunderstorms to Southeast Massachusetts with a rare severe thunderstorm on Nantucket. The links below provide information on the severe weather reports from Sunday Afternoon/early evening:

NWS Local Storm Report – Sunday 8/13/23:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/LSR_8_13_23.pdf

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Report Log:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/reports_8_13_23.pdf

For Tuesday Morning, yet another round of flooding and severe weather potential for the southern half of Southern New England. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) The position of the warm front and how far north it gets. This will determine whether convective heavy rain and the potential for severe weather will stay south of Southern New England, track through the South Coast of Southern New England or encompass an area through much of Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts.

2.) Formation of a triple point low which would enhance the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the flood and severe weather potential focused on Tuesday Morning through early Afternoon. This will likely be the only coordination message on this weather event unless a significant upgrade occurs and time allows for an update as operations could likely start early Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=FFA&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2023/day2otlk_20230814_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Sunday Afternoon and Evening 8/13/23 Severe Weather Potential

August 13, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across Central and Eastern Massachusetts, Rhode Island and East-Central Connecticut this Sunday Afternoon and Evening between 2-8 PM. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of Eastern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for this Sunday Afternoon and Evening..

On Saturday, severe weather was confined to Southwest and South-Central Connecticut between about 730-930 PM and extended westward into Southeast New York, Saturday Afternoon and Evening staying out of the NWS Norton coverage area. During Sunday Morning, strong thunderstorms produced some localized areas of 1″+ rain in less than an hour over the Falmouth area of Cape Cod and wind gusts in the 30-40 MPH range. These storms moved off the coast at 10 AM this morning with severe thunderstorms occurring over the coastal waters south of Block Island RI, Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket.

Another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Eastern New England as the cold front sweeps through the region. The headlines depict the current thinking. The key factor for today is that there is much drier air ahead of this cold front which may limit coverage or intensity of thunderstorms but if this can be overcome, other instability and wind shear parameters would be favorable for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. The coverage is expected to only be isolated to scattered in nature due to the inhibiting factor of dry air loft.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for this Sunday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the only coordination message unless a significant update occurs and time allows for an update. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Saturday 8/12/23-Sunday 8/13/23 – Severe Weather Potential

August 12, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms continue to be likely in Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut and are possible throughout the rest of Southern New England for late Saturday Afternoon through late Saturday Night. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats with an isolated tornado as a secondary threat..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut in a Slight risk for severe weather and the rest of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather for Saturday Afternoon and Evening with the main timeframe between 4-10 PM though we’ll need to monitor activity into the overnight hours as needed..
..It is also noted that SPC has placed Eastern New England is in a marginal risk for severe weather for Sunday Afternoon and Evening and will be covered in a coordination message for Sunday Morning as needed..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely late Saturday Afternoon through Saturday Night. Pictures and videos of storm damage and flooding can be sent as a reply to this messages, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. Also given the possibility of overnight severe thunderstorms, having a means to be alerted during the overnight for any severe weather potential is warranted..

Several rounds of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible to likely across Southern New England with the greatest potential in Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut but all areas should monitor. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Start time of severe weather seems to have settled to be around 4 PM through at least 10 PM and could spill into the overnight period based on the latest model runs. Confidence decreases in severe weather potential after the 10-11 PM timeframe but will bear watching.

2.) The severe weather potential could extend during the overnight hours including the threat for an isolated tornado during this period as wind shear, jet dynamics and turning in the atmosphere compensate for the loss of daytime heating and actually increase through the evening and overnight hours. The overnight aspect of this is uncertain.

3.) There will be several rounds of activity with the potential for 2 or 3 rounds of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms through the late afternoon/evening through the overnight hours.

It is also noted that SPC has placed Eastern New England is in a marginal risk for severe weather for Sunday Afternoon and Evening and will be covered in a coordination message for Sunday Morning as needed. The potential on Sunday will depend on how convection evolves in the region during Saturday evening and the overnight hours.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely late Saturday Afternoon through Saturday Night. Pictures and videos of storm damage and flooding can be sent as a reply to this messages, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. Also given the possibility of overnight severe thunderstorms, having a means to be alerted during the overnight for any severe weather potential is warranted. This will be the last update for the Saturday severe weather potential unless a significant update and occurs and time allows for an update as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1/Day-2 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Saturday Afternoon/Evening/Overnight 8/12/23 Severe Weather Potential

August 12, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely in Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut and are possible throughout the rest of Southern New England for late Saturday Afternoon through late Saturday Night. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats with an isolated tornado as a secondary threat..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut in a Slight risk for severe weather and the rest of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather for Saturday Afternoon and Evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely late Saturday Afternoon through Saturday Night. Pictures and videos of storm damage and flooding can be sent as a reply to this messages, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..

1.) Start time of severe weather. The start time range could be as early as 2-3 PM or as late as 7 PM so there is variance in the start time based on the various models.
2.) The severe weather potential could extend during the overnight hours including the threat for isolated tornadoes during this period as wind shear, jet dynamics and turning in the atmosphere compensate for the loss of daytime heating and actually increase through the evening and overnight hours.
3.) There will be several rounds of activity with the potential for 2 or 3 rounds of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms through the late afternoon/evening through the overnight hours.

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2023/day2otlk_20230811_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Thursday Evening 8/10/23-Friday Morning 8/11/23 – Severe Weather & Flood Potential

August 10, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Relentless severe weather and flood potential pattern continues for portions of Southern New England with next chance late Thursday Afternoon through early morning Friday particularly between around 6 PM Thursday Evening to 2 AM Friday Morning give or take an hour or two and the focus across Eastern New England. Additional chances for severe weather and flooding are possible this weekend into early next week and will be dealt with in future messages..
..The Storm Prediction Center has placed Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts in a marginal risk for severe weather for late Thursday afternoon into Friday Morning for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of strong to damaging winds and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding as the primary threats but an isolated tornado and/or waterspout is also possible..
..A Flood Watch is now in effect for Central and Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island from Thursday Afternoon into Friday Morning for rainfall of widespread 1-3″ with isolated higher amounts of 3-4″+ leading to urban, poor drainage, river and stream flooding particularly in areas hardest hit from Tuesday’s rainfall. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed this area in a slight risk for excessive rainfall..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with likely be needed for severe weather, flood and rain gauge reports. Pictures and videos of storm damage and flooding can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..

Tuesday 8/8/23 was another impactful severe weather and flash flood event for the region. An EF1 Tornado occurred in Mattapoisett Mass and an EF0 Tornado in the Marstons Mills section of Barnstable, MA. Significant flash flooding also affected the region particularly in Northeast Massachusetts. We will summarize all the info in Thursday Morning’s coordination message.

Another round of severe weather and flooding could occurs in portions of Southern New England late Thursday Afternoon into Friday Morning. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) The intensity of the storm system as models vary its intensity but some reliable guidance is indicating a deep low pressure system for this time of year that is more indicative of spring time than summer which would increase the severe weather, heavy rainfall and flood potential.

2.) The track of the storm as that will determine what areas get into the warm sector increasing the severe weather and isolated tornado potential. Right now that’s centered in the current marginal risk for severe weather area by SPC.

3.) Where the heaviest rainfall occurs and how it relates to areas hit hard by the Tuesday severe weather and flood event.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with likely be needed for severe weather, flood and rain gauge reports. Pictures and videos of storm damage and flooding can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. Another coordination message will be posted by 1230 PM Thursday Afternoon. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=FFA&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2023/day2otlk_20230809_1730.html

WPC Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook & Discussion:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpferd
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

Respectfully Submitted,

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