Hurricane Lee Coordination Message #2 – Late Friday Night 9/15/23-Saturday 9/16/23 – Tropical Storm Impacts in Eastern New England

September 14, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Hurricane Lee will impact portions of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island with tropical storm conditions late Friday Night into Saturday. Preparations for tropical storm conditions should continue in eastern areas of Southern New England particularly East and South Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands..
..A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from Hull Massachusetts to Woods Hole Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket and includes Eastern Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes and Nantucket Counties for sustained winds 30-40 MPH with gusts of 50-60 MPH with isolated higher gusts possible especially on the Outer Cape and Nantucket. These winds will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages..
..A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect from Watch Hill Rhode Island to Woods Hole Massachusetts and from north of Hull Massachusetts to Stonington Maine including Block Island. The Tropical Storm Watch includes Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk, Bristol, Northern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts and Bristol, Newport and Washington Counties of Rhode Island for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH and gusts 50 MPH with isolated higher gusts. The highest sustained winds and wind gusts will be over the North Shore and South Coast of Massachusetts..
..Rainfall amounts of 1-4″ are expected in portions of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island with the highest amounts in East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands..
..A Storm Surge Watch remains in effect for Cape Cod Bay and Nantucket..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely during the tropical storm force conditions on Saturday..

Another active day of severe weather and flash flooding today in Southern New England particularly in Connecticut and Rhode Island. A tornado occurred Thursday and impacted the communities of Killingly, CT, Foster, RI, Glocester, RI, Lincoln, RI and North Attleborough, MA. See the NWS Public Information Statement, Local Storm Report and the current WX1BOX Amateur Radio & non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Report log for reports received:

NWS Public Information Statement – Wednesday 9/13/22 Preliminary Tornado Information:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/PNS_9_14_23_Tornado.pdf

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/LSR_BOX_9_13_23.pdf

WX1BOX Amateur Radio/Non-Amateur Radio Spotter Log – 9/13/23 Severe Weather & Flash Flood Event:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/reports_9_13_23.pdf

Hurricane Lee while currently expected to track approximately 100-150 miles east of Cape Cod and Nantucket will bring tropical storm force conditions to the Tropical Storm Warning area and have the potential to bring tropical storm force conditions to the Tropical Storm Watch area late Friday Night into Saturday. This means heavy rainfall and the potential for urban, poor drainage, river and stream flooding, strong to damaging winds that could be exacerbated by saturated soils and fully leaved out trees and coastal storm surge flooding in portions of coastal Southern New England. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) The track of Lee can still have about 100-150 nautical mile error. The current track guidance gives the current set of conditions. If the track shifts further east, the impacts would be lessened and confined to the Eastern Massachusetts coast. If the track shifts west, it would expand the tropical storm force conditions further into Southern New England.
2.) Lee’s large size and any expansion in size depending on the track could also expand impacts in Southern New England or make impacts in the current Tropical Storm Watch/Warning area higher. This will be monitored.
3.) Timing and track of Lee’s approach to the region with the high tide cycle will determine extent of coastal flooding.
4.) The track will determine how much rainfall and where the heaviest will fall in the region.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely during the tropical storm force conditions. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 PM Thursday if there is a change in the watch/warning information before the 11 PM advisory otherwise the next coordination message will be posted by 1130 AM Friday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, Hurricane Local Statement, Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory and NHC Advisory Information, Key Messages and Storm Graphics:

NWS Boston/Norton – Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton – Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton – Hurricane Local Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=HLS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton – Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=TCV&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Lee Public Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt33.KNHC.html

Hurricane Lee Technical Discussion Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt43.KNHC.html

Hurricane Lee Forecast/Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt23.KNHC.html

Hurricane Lee Wind Speed Probabilities:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font13.KNHC.html

Hurricane Lee Key Messages:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/092753.shtml?key_messages#contents

Hurricane Lee Storm Graphics:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/092753.shtml?cone#contents

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
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