Storm Coordination Message #2 – Late Sunday Night 12/17/23-Monday 12/18/23 Coastal Storm Hazards

Hello to all…

..A strong coastal storm will bring another round of strong to damaging winds and heavy rainfall to much of Southern New England with the potential for minor to low-end moderate coastal flooding to South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island late Sunday Night through Monday Evening. This storm system is more intense and will intensify significantly on approach and over Southern New England which means the potential for strong to damaging winds could be more widespread than the event early last week..
..A High Wind Watch remains in effect for late Sunday Night through Monday Evening for South Coastal Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Cape Cod and the Islands and East Coastal Massachusetts including Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk and Eastern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds of 35-45 MPH with gusts to 65 MPH and isolated higher wind gusts possible. A High Wind Watch is now in effect from late Sunday Night through Monday Evening for Western Norfolk, North-Central Bristol, North-Central Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts and Northwest Providence Counties of Rhode Island for sustained winds 20-30 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH. Additional Wind headlines will be likely for other inland areas in future updates. These winds will cause scattered pockets of tree and wire damage with scattered power outages..
..A Flood Watch is now in effect from Sunday Evening to Monday Evening for Northern Connecticut, Northwest Providence County Rhode Island, Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden and Worcester Counties of Massachusetts for a widespread 2-3″ of rain with higher amounts of 3-4″ possible. These rains coupled with the rains from early last week bring the potential for flooding of urban, poor drainage areas, small rivers and streams. Areas outside of the Flood Watch area will receive a widespread 1-2″ of rain with isolated higher amounts..
..A Coastal Flood Watch is now in effect for the Monday Midday High Tide for Southeast Providence, Eastern Kent, Washington and Newport Counties of Rhode Island for minor to low-end moderate coastal flooding of shore roads in this area. Additional coastal flood headlines for South Coastal Massachusetts are possible in future updates. This will depend on the strongest winds coinciding before and during that high tide cycle..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for rain gauge, flooding, measured wind gusts 40 MPH or greater and wind damage reports for this storm system. The peak of the storm will be Monday Morning through mid-afternoon. Pictures and videos of storm damage and flooding and can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and via the email address pics@nsradio.org..

Another storm system will bring the potential for strong to damaging winds, heavy rainfall and the potential of minor to low-end moderate coastal flooding if the strong to damaging winds are before and during the Monday high tide cycle. The headlines depict the current thinking with High Wind Watches expanded to the I-95 corridor of Southern New England, Flood Watches posted for western and central portions of Southern New England and Coastal Flood Watches for the south coast of Rhode Island. Key factors include:

1.) This is a strong/deeper coastal storm system than the one early last week. With the storm last week, approximately 14,000 customers lost power in Southern New England with close to 9,000 in Massachusetts. The strong wind gusts forecast did materialize but were in pockets and isolated to pockets where heavier rain and convective showers brought the winds down to the surface. It was also noted that areas just inland of some coastal areas also had some of the strongest winds. Where this storm will be stronger and intensifying near or over Southern New England, it is becoming more likely that this will allow for winds of similar magnitude as last week but over a larger area which could create more scattered pockets of wind damage and power outages than the last storm event. Additional wind headlines are possible in future updates.
2.) Heavy rainfall and renewed potential for flooding is possible across portions of Western and Central Massachusetts, Connecticut and possibly into Northwest Rhode Island with 2-3″ of rain with isolated higher amounts of 4″ where Flood Watches are now posted. A widespread 1-2″ of rain with isolated higher amounts are expected in the remainder of Southern New England with more nuisance type flooding possible.
3.) A Coastal Flood Watch is now in effect for South Coastal Rhode Island for minor to low-end moderate coastal flooding is possible at the time of high tide if strong winds occur before and during the Monday midday high tide cycle. Additional coastal flood headlines for South Coastal Massachusetts are likely in future updates.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for rain gauge, flooding, measured wind gusts 40 MPH or greater and wind damage reports for this storm system. The peak of the storm will be Monday Morning through mid-afternoon. Pictures and videos of storm damage and flooding and can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and via the email address pics@nsradio.org. The next coordination message will be posted by 11 AM Sunday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Flood Watch Statement with Rainfall Map, High Wind Watch Statement with Wind Gust Map, Coastal Flood Watch Statement and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Flood Watch Statement & Rainfall Map:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=FFA&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/NWS_Norton_Rainfall_Map_Monday_12_18_23.jpg

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Watch Statement & Wind Gust Map:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=NPW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Coastal Flood Watch Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=CFW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
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