Storm Coordination Message #2 – Late Sunday Afternoon 1/19/25-Early Monday Morning 1/20/25 Moderate Snowstorm Potential
Hello to all…
..Moderate Snowstorm possible to likely for portions of Southern New England late Sunday Afternoon into early Monday Morning followed by bitter cold conditions, the coldest of the season, for several days next week..
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from Sunday Afternoon to Monday Morning for Northern Connecticut, Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts and is now expanded into Essex, Central and Southeast Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for 4-8″ of snow. Areas outside of the Winter Storm Watch area could see at least a plowable snowfall depending on the track and intensity of the storm..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets likely Sunday Evening for in-storm snowfall amounts and Monday Morning for final snowfall amounts. Pictures and videos of the storm can be sent as a reply to this message, via the WX1BOX Facebook, X and Bluesky feeds or via the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..
Confidence continues to grow in a moderate snowstorm for portions of Southern New England though exact areas and how widespread remain uncertain due to model spread with high confidence in bitter cold conditions, the coldest of the season, after the storm has passed the region. The headlines depict current thinking with key factors for the moderate snowstorm including:
1.) The track of the storm system. Model spread is essentially in two camps with one set of reliable models, the American GFS and Canadian model favoring heaviest snow and perhaps even isolated higher amounts over 8″ in portions of the current Winter Storm Watch area while the European and short-range American Model are more offshore and a bit weaker with a plowable snowfall for much of the area including Southeast Massachusetts. Currently, the heaviest snow is still expected in the Winter Storm Watch area now expanded into Northeast Massachusetts with a plowable snow still possible for portions of Southeast Massachusetts and Rhode Island. A track closer to the coast would be more mixing issues and lower amounts in Eastern New England, particularly Southeast New England, while a further offshore solution could slide the heaviest snowfall further east. This will continue to bear watching as we get closer to the event.
2.) The intensity of the storm system. The American GFS and Canadian model favor a stronger system while the European and short-range American model is a bit weaker with the system.
3.) The storm is expected to be progressive meaning snow occurring for a 10-15 hour period with the snow starting late Sunday Afternoon heaviest Sunday Evening and overnight ending by early Monday Morning between 7-10 AM. The timing will be monitored.
SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets likely Sunday Evening for in-storm snowfall amounts and Monday Morning for final snowfall amounts. Pictures and videos of the storm can be sent as a reply to this message, via the WX1BOX Facebook and X feeds or via the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. Another coordination message will be posted by 1100 PM Saturday Evening. Below is the Winter Storm Watch Statement/Snowfall Map, Area Forecast Discussion and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Watch Statement/Snowfall Map:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
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