Storm Coordination Message #5 – Monday Evening 1/23/17-Tuesday Morning 1/24/17 Coastal Storm Potential
Hello to all…
..Significant Coastal Storm will impact Southern New England Monday Night into Tuesday Morning with heavy rain, strong winds in the interior and strong to damaging winds at the coast, the potential for minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide Monday Evening and minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide Tuesday Morning and the potential for accumulating snow and ice in Northwest and North-Central parts of Massachusetts. Height of the coastal storm will be during the overnight hours Monday Night into early Tuesday Morning..
..A High Wind Warning remains in effect until 7 AM Tuesday Morning for Eastern Essex, Eastern Plymouth County Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands for sustained winds of 35-45 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH and isolated wind gusts in the 60-70 MPH range particularly on Cape Cod and the islands. These winds could result in isolated to scattered tree and power line damage and isolated to scattered power outages..
..A Wind Advisory is in effect for all of Central and Eastern Massachusetts including Hampden County Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Northern Connecticut for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with wind gusts to 50-55 MPH with the higher wind gusts along coastal areas. These winds could result in isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Flood Watch remains in effect from Monday Afternoon through Tuesday Morning for Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts except for Cape Cod and the Islands for heavy rainfall of 2-3″ with higher amounts possible in areas where heavy rain trains over the same area. This could bring some urban and poor drainage flooding to portions of the region and small river and stream flooding if amounts of more than 3″ occur in a short enough period of time..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through 7 AM Tuesday Morning for Franklin, Hampshire, Worcester, Western Hampden, Northern and Central Middlesex, Western Essex Counties of Massachusetts, Hartford and Tolland Counties Connecticut for 3-6″ of snow in the higher terrain and the east slopes of the Berkshires and 1-4″ of snow along the Massachusetts and New Hampshire border and in Northwest and North-Central Connecticut and 0.10″-0.25″ of ice across the advisory area. This remains the most problematic area of the forecast as just a one degree temperature difference could make the difference between either heavier snowfall or more ice accretion or even just having a heavy rainfall..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect through 1000 PM Monday Evening for Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk, and Eastern Plymouth Counties for the Monday Evening high tide and the Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect through 1100 PM Monday Evening for Cape Cod and the Islands for the Monday Evening high tide cycle for splashover and minor coastal flooding of shore roads..
..A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect from 5 AM-11 AM Tuesday Morning for Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk, and Eastern Plymouth Counties and from 6 AM-Noon Tuesday for Cape Cod and the Islands for the Tuesday Morning high tide cycle for minor to moderate coastal flooding of shore roads where the tide cycle is higher and could result in a more significant coastal flood episode in this area with additional road closures..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect from 3 AM-7 AM Tuesday Morning for Washington and Newport Counties in Rhode Island and from 6 AM-Noon Tuesday for Dukes County (Marthas Vineyard) for isolated to scattered pockets of minor coastal flooding..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with structured remote operations at minimum to ops at NWS Taunton will be utilized for the duration of this storm event..
This is the fifth and final message in a series of coordination messages posted this weekend on a significant coastal storm that will impact the region. The headlines depict the current potential impacts from this storm system which is multi-faceted in nature. There are a number of key details that need to be worked out at this juncture as well as some items that are very high confidence at this time. They are the following:
1.) The very strong to damaging winds at the coast line remains very high confidence currently. This will bear watching for any extent of power outages and tree and power line damage. Isolated pockets of wind damage are already occurring in the region.
2.) The snow and ice portion of this forecast remains lowest confidence and could be the area that has a very wide variance in outcomes. The headlines reflect the latest thinking but just a one or two degree temperature change could make the difference between heavy wet snow accumulations, significant ice and/or sleet accumulations or heavy rainfall. Also, higher terrain and elevation may also cause variability in snow, ice, and rain amounts. Some snow accumulations of 1-2″ have been recorded in parts of the advisory area already.
3.) Confidence has increased in widespread heavy rainfall of 2-3″ with the potential for higher amounts in bands across a portion of Eastern New England. This has resulted in flood watches being posted for Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts except for Cape Cod and the Islands from Monday Afternoon through Tuesday Morning.
4.) Tides will be astronomically low but the easterly fetch and the strength of the winds will compensate for possible minor coastal flooding for the Monday Evening high tide with a more significant coastal flood episode likely for the Tuesday Morning high tide given the later time period for strong to damaging winds with the higher astronomical tide for that tide cycle. The main impact will be splashover and pockets of minor to moderate shore road flooding across East Coastal Massachusetts and to a lesser extent in parts of South Coastal RI.
SKYWARN Self-Activation with structured remote operations at minimum to ops at NWS Taunton will be utilized for the duration of this storm event. Below is the NWS Taunton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement, Flood Watch Statement, Coastal Flood Warning/Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics:
NWS Taunton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Warning/Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box
Hello to all…
..Significant Coastal Storm will impact Southern New England Monday Night into Tuesday Morning with heavy rain, strong winds in the interior and strong to damaging winds at the coast, the potential for minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide Monday Evening and minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide Tuesday Morning and the potential for accumulating snow and ice in Northwest and North-Central parts of Massachusetts. Height of the coastal storm will be during the overnight hours Monday Night into early Tuesday Morning..
..A High Wind Warning remains in effect until 7 AM Tuesday Morning for Eastern Essex, Eastern Plymouth County Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands for sustained winds of 35-45 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH and isolated wind gusts in the 60-70 MPH range particularly on Cape Cod and the islands. These winds could result in isolated to scattered tree and power line damage and isolated to scattered power outages..
..A Wind Advisory is in effect for all of Central and Eastern Massachusetts including Hampden County Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Northern Connecticut for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with wind gusts to 50-55 MPH with the higher wind gusts along coastal areas. These winds could result in isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Flood Watch remains in effect from Monday Afternoon through Tuesday Morning for Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts except for Cape Cod and the Islands for heavy rainfall of 2-3″ with higher amounts possible in areas where heavy rain trains over the same area. This could bring some urban and poor drainage flooding to portions of the region and small river and stream flooding if amounts of more than 3″ occur in a short enough period of time..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through 7 AM Tuesday Morning for Franklin, Hampshire, Worcester, Western Hampden, Northern and Central Middlesex, Western Essex Counties of Massachusetts, Hartford and Tolland Counties Connecticut for 3-6″ of snow in the higher terrain and the east slopes of the Berkshires and 1-4″ of snow along the Massachusetts and New Hampshire border and in Northwest and North-Central Connecticut and 0.10″-0.25″ of ice across the advisory area. This remains the most problematic area of the forecast as just a one degree temperature difference could make the difference between either heavier snowfall or more ice accretion or even just having a heavy rainfall..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect through 1000 PM Monday Evening for Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk, and Eastern Plymouth Counties for the Monday Evening high tide and the Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect through 1100 PM Monday Evening for Cape Cod and the Islands for the Monday Evening high tide cycle for splashover and minor coastal flooding of shore roads..
..A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect from 5 AM-11 AM Tuesday Morning for Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk, and Eastern Plymouth Counties and from 6 AM-Noon Tuesday for Cape Cod and the Islands for the Tuesday Morning high tide cycle for minor to moderate coastal flooding of shore roads where the tide cycle is higher and could result in a more significant coastal flood episode in this area with additional road closures..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect from 3 AM-7 AM Tuesday Morning for Washington and Newport Counties in Rhode Island and from 6 AM-Noon Tuesday for Dukes County (Marthas Vineyard) for isolated to scattered pockets of minor coastal flooding..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with structured remote operations at minimum to ops at NWS Taunton will be utilized for the duration of this storm event..
This is the fifth and final message in a series of coordination messages posted this weekend on a significant coastal storm that will impact the region. The headlines depict the current potential impacts from this storm system which is multi-faceted in nature. There are a number of key details that need to be worked out at this juncture as well as some items that are very high confidence at this time. They are the following:
1.) The very strong to damaging winds at the coast line remains very high confidence currently. This will bear watching for any extent of power outages and tree and power line damage. Isolated pockets of wind damage are already occurring in the region.
2.) The snow and ice portion of this forecast remains lowest confidence and could be the area that has a very wide variance in outcomes. The headlines reflect the latest thinking but just a one or two degree temperature change could make the difference between heavy wet snow accumulations, significant ice and/or sleet accumulations or heavy rainfall. Also, higher terrain and elevation may also cause variability in snow, ice, and rain amounts. Some snow accumulations of 1-2″ have been recorded in parts of the advisory area already.
3.) Confidence has increased in widespread heavy rainfall of 2-3″ with the potential for higher amounts in bands across a portion of Eastern New England. This has resulted in flood watches being posted for Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts except for Cape Cod and the Islands from Monday Afternoon through Tuesday Morning.
4.) Tides will be astronomically low but the easterly fetch and the strength of the winds will compensate for possible minor coastal flooding for the Monday Evening high tide with a more significant coastal flood episode likely for the Tuesday Morning high tide given the later time period for strong to damaging winds with the higher astronomical tide for that tide cycle. The main impact will be splashover and pockets of minor to moderate shore road flooding across East Coastal Massachusetts and to a lesser extent in parts of South Coastal RI.
SKYWARN Self-Activation with structured remote operations at minimum to ops at NWS Taunton will be utilized for the duration of this storm event. Below is the NWS Taunton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement, Flood Watch Statement, Coastal Flood Warning/Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics:
NWS Taunton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Warning/Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box