June 2021

Severe Weather Coordination Message #3 – Wednesday 6/30/21 – Severe Weather & Heat Potential

June 30, 2021 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Severe thunderstorms caused pockets of wind damage and flooding in portions of Western Massachusetts, Northern Connecticut, Northwest Rhode Island and in the Metro Boston/Brookline/Newton area Tuesday. Any additional damage reports, photos and videos from the Tuesday 6/29/21 severe weather event can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or for photos and videos, they can be sent to the email address pics@nsradio.org..
..Scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening across much of Southern New England between 2-10 PM. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued Extreme Northern Connecticut, Northwest Rhode Island and Western, Central and Northeast Massachusetts including the metro Boston area to an Enhanced risk for severe weather while the rest of Southern New England north and west of the Cape Cod Canal is in a slight risk for severe weather with a marginal risk for severe weather for Cape Cod and the Islands. Damaging Winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban to poor drainage flooding to possibly flash flooding are the main threats..
..A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 7 PM Wednesday Evening for all of the NWS Boston/Norton coverage area except for Cape Cod and the Islands for heat indices between 97-103 degrees. Anyone exerting themselves outside should take frequent breaks, drink plenty of liquids and seek air conditioned areas wherever possible to avoid heat related illnesses..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..

Intense heat and humidity continues across much of Southern New England today and will continue through at least Wednesday. Heat Advisories are posted for much of Southern New England away from Cape Cod and the Islands. Links to the apparent maximum temperatures factoring in humidity and dewpoints can be seen here:

NWS Boston/Norton Apparent Maximum Temperatures:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Heat-Indices-Wednesday.png

Tuesday also featured a bit more coverage in strong to severe thunderstorms across the area particularly in Western and Central Massachusetts, Northern Connecticut and Northwest Rhode Island as well as the Brookline/Boston/Newton area. Any additional damage reports, photos and videos from the Tuesday 6/29/21 severe weather event can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or for photos and videos, they can be sent to the email address pics@nsradio.org. The Tuesday Evening NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report can be seen below:

https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2106300125.nwus51.html

Severe weather potential continues to fairly high for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening and SPC has continued the enhanced risk in parts of our coverage area as indicated in the headlines. A cold front will be approaching the region and with the intense heat and humidity in place and increasing winds aloft, it will set the stage for a greater risk of strong to severe thunderstorm development along with a greater coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms across Southern New England. Key items for Wednesday will be how quickly the cold front gets into or close enough to the region to provide a trigger for thunderstorm development and the overlap of the stronger winds aloft with high instability over the region from intense heating and humidity through the day. No cloud cover remains over the region so intense heating will continue through the day. The main threat appears to be clusters or lines of strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding in the area.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message as we switch to operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement, Heat Advisory Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement on Severe Weather Potential:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2106301343.wwus81.html

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday 6/30/21 – Severe Weather & Heat Potential

June 30, 2021 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Severe thunderstorms caused pockets of wind damage and flooding in portions of Western Massachusetts, Northern Connecticut, Northwest Rhode Island and in the Metro Boston/Brookline/Newton area Tuesday. Any additional damage reports, photos and videos from the Tuesday 6/29/21 severe weather event can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or for photos and videos, they can be sent to the email address pics@nsradio.org..
..Scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening across much of Southern New England. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has upgraded Extreme Northern Connecticut, Northwest Rhode Island and Western, Central and Northeast Massachusetts including the metro Boston area to an Enhanced risk for severe weather while the rest of Southern New England north and west of the Cape Cod Canal is in a slight risk for severe weather with a marginal risk for severe weather for Cape Cod and the Islands. Damaging Winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban to poor drainage flooding to possibly flash flooding are the main threats..
..A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 7 PM Wednesday Evening for all of the NWS Boston/Norton coverage area except for Cape Cod and the Islands for heat indices between 97-103 degrees. Anyone exerting themselves outside should take frequent breaks, drink plenty of liquids and seek air conditioned areas wherever possible to avoid heat related illnesses..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..

NWS Boston/Norton Apparent Maximum Temperatures:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Heat-Indices-Wednesday.png

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2106300125.nwus51.html

Severe weather potential continues to increase for Wednesday and this has prompted an upgrade in the severe weather outlook to Enhanced in parts of our coverage area as indicated in the headlines. A cold front will be approaching the region and with the intense heat and humidity in place and increasing winds aloft, it will set the stage for a greater risk of strong to severe thunderstorm development along with a greater coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms across Southern New England. Key items for Wednesday will be how quickly the cold front gets into or close enough to the region to provide a trigger for thunderstorm development and the overlap of the stronger winds aloft with high instability over the region from intense heating and humidity through the day. Also it is presumed any lingering cloud cover from overnight convection in Eastern New York will not prevent expected strong heating through the day and this will be monitored. The main threat appears to be clusters or lines of strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding in the area.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 AM Wednesday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210629_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday 6/29/21 and Wednesday 6/30/21 Heat Wave & Severe Weather Potential

June 29, 2021 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Intense heat and humidity with a second heat wave ongoing for much of Southern New England away from Cape Cod and the Islands through at least Wednesday of this week. A few isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorms are possible today in parts of Western and Central Massachusetts, Northern Connecticut and Northern Rhode Island this Tuesday Afternoon and Evening though the best coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to be north and west of our area for Tuesday..
..For Wednesday, a more significant potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms is expected with an approaching cold front and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the area from Boston to Providence north and west in a slight risk for severe weather with the rest of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours are the main threats..
..A Heat Advisory is now in effect through 7 PM Wednesday Evening for all of the NWS Boston/Norton coverage area except for Cape Cod and the Islands for heat indices between 97-103 degrees. Anyone exerting themselves outside should take frequent breaks, drink plenty of liquids and seek air conditioned areas wherever possible to avoid heat related illnesses..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor any strong to severe thunderstorm potential that develops on Tuesday Afternoon and Evening and especially Wednesday Afternoon and evening..

NWS Boston/Norton Apparent Maximum Temperatures:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Heat-Indices-Tuesday.png
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Heat-Indices-Wednesday.png

Severe weather potential will be on the increase particularly on Wednesday but there is some potential for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm or two this Tuesday Afternoon and Evening as there will be some marginal triggers to the unstable atmosphere that could allow for a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with the greatest risk in Western Massachusetts, Northern Connecticut and Northwest Rhode Island. The greater potential is noted to be north and west of our coverage area but some models do produce a few pop-up thunderstorms and the potential for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm or two.

On Wednesday, a cold front will be approaching the region and with the intense heat and humidity in place and increasing winds aloft, it will set the stage for a greater risk of strong to severe thunderstorm development along with a greater coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms across Southern New England. Key items for Wednesday will be how quickly the cold front gets into or close enough to the region to provide a trigger for thunderstorm development and the overlap of the stronger winds aloft with high instability over the region from intense heating and humidity through the day.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor any strong to severe thunderstorm potential that develops on Tuesday Afternoon and Evening and especially Wednesday Afternoon and evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 PM Tuesday Evening on Wednesday’s severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210629_0600.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather & Heat Coordination Message #1 – Monday 6/28/21 – Severe Weather, Oppressive Heat & Humidity Potential

June 27, 2021 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Intense Heat and humidity with the start of a second heat wave for much of Southern New England away from coastal areas expected for much of this week. There will also be the potential for thunderstorms and a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms over the next few days in interior locations starting Monday Afternoon and Evening. The primary threat from these storms will be frequent lightning and heavy downpours but a secondary threat will be strong to damaging winds and hail..
..A Heat Advisory is now in effect through 7 PM Tuesday Evening for Northern Connecticut, Eastern Hampden, Eastern Hampshire, Eastern Franklin Counties, Worcester, Middlesex, Essex, Suffolk, Norfolk, North-central Bristol, North-central Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts, Providence and Kent Counties of Rhode Island for heat indices of 98 to 104 degrees except Kent County RI here heat indices are expected to be 95-99 degrees. Some portions of the heat advisory area could be upgraded to Excessive Heat Warnings for heat indices greater than 105 degrees..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor any strong to severe thunderstorm potential that develops on Monday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 1 PM Monday Afternoon. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement, Area Forecast Discussion and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend Weather Coordination Message #2 – Saturday 6/25-Sunday 6/27/21 Weather Outlook

June 26, 2021 Rob Macedo

Hello to all..

..The following is the second and final message in a series of messages on Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend and providing information on the weather during this period. This is a tradition spanning over 18 years for Amateur Radio Operators involved with Field Day and the NWS Boston/Norton SKYWARN Program..
..2021 Field Day weekend will now be dry, warm and humid with shower and thunderstorm risks pushed out beyond this weekend due to the positioning of the ride and the heat in the region. The potential for severe weather or any lightning threat for Sunday has been removed..
..Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend is an annual event where Ham Operators across the United States setup at Emergency Operations Centers, field locations, home locations etc. to operate and test their equipment and skills and make as many radio contacts as possible during the weekend. Due to lingering COVID-19 concerns, Amateur Radio Field Day across Southern New England will be a bit different with somewhat less Field Day sites than normal in the region but more sites than 2020. Those that are up and running may have some level of COVID-19 protocols in place. There will be some Amateur Radio Field Day operations operating at home and not at field locations. Amateur Radio Field Day resource information is listed below..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor conditions throughout Field Day weekend as needed..

Here are some links to information on these Amateur Radio Field Day Sites from across the region understanding there could be some COVID-19 protocols in place depending on the field day sites:

Amateur Radio Field Day Information: http://www.arrl.org/field-day
Amateur Radio Field Day National Locator: http://www.arrl.org/field-day-locator
Eastern Massachusetts Field Day Home Page: https://ema.arrl.org/field-day/
Eastern Massachusetts Field Day Directory: http://ema.arrl.org/field_day/

The weekend is now expected to be warm, humid an dry throughout the entire period with thunderstorm chances removed from the Sunday timeframe. For Saturday, temperature will be in the 80s with lows in the 60s and on Sunday, temperatures will be in the Upper 80s to lower 90s away from the coast with heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. This may prompt heat advisories for Sunday as the start of a several day heat wave could occur as early as Sunday in parts of the region. Due to the positioning of high pressure in the area, thunderstorm chances were removed from the forecast meaning that is not a threat for this weekend. Coastal areas will be cooler with temperatures in the Upper 70s to lower 80s for highs and 60s for lows. There could be low clouds and fog each morning on the coast that will burn off later in the day. It will be important for Amateur Radio Field Day sites operating outside to drink plenty of liquids and to stay cool as the temperatures this weekend will be a precursor to a potential heat wave to start the new work week.

Below are links to the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and a graphic on max apparent temperatures for Sunday which accounts for heat and humidity and what conditions will feel like in the region:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Max Apparent Temperature Graphic:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/MaxApparentTISC_SFC_Jun27.png

Amateur Radio Field Day sites are encouraged to bring a NOAA All-Hazards Weather Radio, monitor various cell phone weather apps where Amateur Operators may have those available and have a dedicated Ham Radio that can monitor their local SKYWARN Frequency for their area as a best safety and preparedness practice. Also sites that have mobile Internet capability can utilize that capability as a way to monitor for weather information. With Mobile Internet capability, utilizing Echolink to monitor the New England Reflector system on Echolink Conference *NEW-ENG3* Node: 9123/IRLP 9123 would be helpful as well. Please see the link below for the latest SKYWARN Frequency information for the region:
https://wx1box.org/southern-new-england-skywarn-frequency-list/

During setup and takedown of Amateur Radio Field Day sites and even while operating, be sure to drink plenty of fluids and eat accordingly. Also having a jacket or sweatshirt during evenings as conditions cool and rain gear for any showers and thunderstorms etc. may also be useful while operating this year’s Field Day. The link below features information on Heat Safety:
https://www.weather.gov/safety/heat

Given the threat for thunderstorms in isolated to scattered locations over the course of Friday and the weekend, lightning is a threat to any and all Amateur Radio Field Day sites. Remember your lightning safety tips and details on lightning safety can be seen at the following link:
https://www.weather.gov/safety/lightning

This will be the last Amateur Radio Field Day Coordination Message since the threat for thunderstorms is reduced and the main concern is heat and humidity particularly on the Sunday of Field Day. A shortened coordination message may be posted if a significant change to the situation occurs and time allows for an update.

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend Weather Coordination Message #1 – Friday Evening 6/25-Sunday 6/27/21 Weather Outlook

June 26, 2021 Rob Macedo

Hello to all..

..The following is the first in a series of messages on Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend and providing information on the weather during this period. This is a tradition spanning over 18 years for Amateur Radio Operators involved with Field Day and the NWS Boston/Norton SKYWARN Program..
..2021 Field Day weekend will mostly be dry, warm and humid but has potential shower and thunderstorm risks in isolated to scattered locations particularly on Sunday. The potential for severe weather on Sunday is low but frequent lightning is a threat near any scattered thunderstorms that can develop..
..Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend is an annual event where Ham Operators across the United States setup at Emergency Operations Centers, field locations, home locations etc. to operate and test their equipment and skills and make as many radio contacts as possible during the weekend. Due to lingering COVID-19 concerns, Amateur Radio Field Day across Southern New England will be a bit different with somewhat less Field Day sites than normal in the region but more sites than 2020. Those that are up and running may have some level of COVID-19 protocols in place. There will be some Amateur Radio Field Day operations operating at home and not at field locations. Amateur Radio Field Day resource information is listed below..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor conditions throughout Field Day weekend as needed..

Here are some links to information on these Amateur Radio Field Day Sites from across the region understanding there could be some COVID-19 protocols in place depending on the field day sites:

While most of the weekend will be dry, there will be scattered showers and thunderstorm chances particularly on Sunday. Warm and humid conditions will prevail in the region with highs in the 80s with a few locations reaching around 90 degrees possibly on Sunday and lows in the 60s to lower 70s. It will be important for Amateur Radio Field Day sites operating outside to drink plenty of liquids and to stay cool as the temperatures this weekend will be a precursor to a potential heat wave to start the new work week. Coordination messages will be sent throughout the weekend to monitor the potential for any thunderstorms on the Sunday of Amateur Radio Field Day weekend.

Below are links to the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook and NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

The next Amateur Radio Field Day coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Saturday Morning.

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday Afternoon and Evening 6/22/21 Severe Weather Potential

June 22, 2021 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this Tuesday Afternoon and Evening particularly across Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. This potential is contingent on the overlap of instability with sufficiently strong wind shear profiles ahead of an approaching cold front which will bring cooler and less humid conditions to the region..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for this Tuesday Afternoon and Evening in Southeast New England. This will be the only coordination message as we shift into monitoring the severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Monday Late Afternoon and Evening 6/21/21 Severe Weather Potential

June 21, 2021 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible late Monday Afternoon and Evening across Western Massachusetts along and west of the CT River Valley and Northwest Connecticut. Timeframe is between 5-10 PM Monday with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. There have been no changes to the outlook since yesterday..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut along and west of the Connecticut River Valley in a marginal risk for severe weather for late Monday Afternoon and Evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday late Afternoon and Evening..

A pre-frontal trough will move through New York and Northern New England and then spread into Southern New England during Monday in the late afternoon and evening and bring the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms over portions of Western New England. The headlines depict the current thinking and are unchanged from yesterday. Key factors include:

1.) Timing of the pre-frontal trough as earlier timing into Western New England would increase the severe weather potential there but later timing would reduce the potential.
2.) Wind shear profiles are favorable which may compensate for lower instability if current timing in the late afternoon/early evening holds.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday late afternoon and evening. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday Late Afternoon & Evening 6/21/21 Severe Weather Potential

June 21, 2021 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible late Monday Afternoon and Evening across Western Massachusetts along and west of the CT River Valley and Northwest Connecticut. Timeframe is between 5-10 PM Monday with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut along and west of the Connecticut River Valley in a marginal risk for severe weather for Monday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday late Afternoon and Evening..

A pre-frontral trough will move through New York and Northern New England and then spread into Southern New England during Monday in the late afternoon and evening and bring the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms over portions of Western New England. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday late Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 10 AM Monday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210620_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Saturday Afternoon & Evening 6/19/21 Severe Weather Potential

June 19, 2021 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible mid-to-late Saturday Afternoon and Evening across areas of Southern New England along and south of the Mass Pike though areas north of the Mass Pike should continue to monitor with a timeframe of after 3-4 PM til 12 AM Saturday with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats.
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has focused the marginal risk for severe weather for Saturday to areas along and south of the Mass Pike with the latest update but areas north of the Mass Pike should continue to monitor..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Saturday late Afternoon and Evening..

An impulse in the atmosphere will move into Southern New England mid to late Saturday Afternoon into Saturday Evening with the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Amount of available instability since the impulse will move through past peak heating.
2.) Wind shear profiles are favorable which may compensate for lower instability if current timing in the late afternoon/early evening holds.
3.) If timing of the impulse is earlier than currently expected allowing better overlap of higher instability with strong wind shear and the impulse acting as a trigger in the atmosphere.
4.) Amount of available moisture in the atmosphere and the moisture return as we get toward later afternoon and evening. Areas of north of the Mass Pike have drier dewpoints but areas along and south of the Mass Pike has higher dewpoints and moisture available which is why the marginal risk for severe weather is focused on that area.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Saturday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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