July 2023

Severe Weather Coordination Message #3 – Saturday 7/29/23 Severe Weather and Flash Flood Potential

July 29, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..One more day of potential severe weather and flash flooding for portions of Southern New England Saturday Afternoon and Evening between 12-9 PM today..

..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued much of Connecticut, Rhode Island, Southwest, South-Central and Southeast Massachusetts along and south of the Mass Pike in a slight risk for severe weather with a marginal risk for severe weather for the rest of Southern New England north of the Pike. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours with urban/poor drainage, river and stream flooding are the primary threat with an isolated tornado as a secondary threat and the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) continues all of Southern New England to a slight risk for excessive rainfall..

..A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire coverage area except through late Saturday Night for the entire NWS Norton coverage area except for Southern Rhode Island, Eastern Plymouth County and Cape Cod and the Islands for excessive rainfall leading to urban, poor drainage, river and stream flooding.

..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Saturday to monitor the severe weather and flood potential. Pictures of storm damage, flooding and post storm reports can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feed or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..

On Saturday Morning, there was little in the way of thunderstorm activity but Block Island RI did get a severe thunderstorm with wind gusts as high as 74 MPH as reported by a sailboat on the island, trees down and some damage to a boat and dragging of a yacht in Block Island Harbor. Details on this event for Block Island RI are below:

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report – Saturday 7/29/23:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/LSR_Block_Island_7_29_23.pdf

WX1BOX Twitter Feed Block Island RI as relayed by Eweather13:
https://twitter.com/Eweather13/status/1685278886731382784?s=20
https://twitter.com/Eweather13/status/1685278886731382784?s=20
https://twitter.com/Eweather13/status/1685277795692220416?s=20
https://twitter.com/WX1BOX/status/1685268445015715841
https://twitter.com/Eweather13/status/1685226241413025792

Thursday 7/27/23 brought the most widespread severe weather event of the season to date to Southern New England. Just north of the NWS Norton coverage area, an EF1 Tornado occurred in Cheshire County NH from North Swanzey NH to Marlboro and Dublin NH. A WX1BOX Facebook Photo Album will be posted later this weekend/early next week on this severe weather event. Below are the WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log, NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report and the NWS Gray Maine Public Information Statement on EF1 tornado in the Dublin NH area:

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/reports_7_27_23.pdf

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/LSR_7_28_23.pdf

NWS Gray Maine Public Information Statement – EF1 Tornado in the Dublin NH area:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/PNS_GYX_Dublin_NH_Tornado_7_27_23.pdf

Another round of potential severe weather and flash flooding for portions of Southern New England for Saturday Afternoon and Evening. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.)Shower activity over Southeast New York, Southwest Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut and impact on heating and how this progresses and whether it develops further as the cold front moves through the area later this afternoon an evening.
2.) Heating and destabilization overlapping sufficient wind shear profiles for strong to severe thunderstorm development.
3.) Timing of the triggering mechanism which is a cold front during or shortly after the time of peak heating.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Saturday to monitor the severe weather and flood potential. Pictures of storm damage, flooding and post storm reports can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feed or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and WPC Day-1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=FFA&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2023/day2otlk_20230728_1730.html

WPC Day-1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook & Discussion:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpferd
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – https://twitter.com/wx1box
Subscribe on YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/@wx1box-nwsboston-amateur-radio

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Saturday 7/29/23 Severe Weather & Flood Potential

July 29, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..One more day of potential severe weather and flash flooding for portions of Southern New England Saturday Afternoon and Evening between 12-9 PM with a low risk of a strong to severe thunderstorm early Saturday Morning in Southeast New England..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued much of Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts in a slight risk for severe weather with a marginal risk for severe weather for the rest of Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours with urban/poor drainage, river and stream flooding are the primary threat with an isolated tornado as a secondary threat and the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has upgraded all of Southern New England to a slight risk for excessive rainfall..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Saturday to monitor the severe weather and flood potential. Pictures of storm damage, flooding and post storm reports can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feed or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook and WPC Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook..

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/reports_7_27_23.pdf

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/LSR_7_28_23.pdf

NWS Gray Maine Public Information Statement – EF1 Tornado in the Dublin NH area:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/PNS_GYX_Dublin_NH_Tornado_7_27_23.pdf

Another round of potential severe weather and flash flooding for portions of Southern New England for Saturday Afternoon and Evening. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) What, if any, morning convection occurs particularly over Southeast New England and any cloud debris that activity generates as well as how strong that convection is. If it forms, it would likely be garden variety but can’t rule out an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm.
2.) Heating and destabilization overlapping sufficient wind shear profiles for strong to severe thunderstorm development.
3.) Timing of the triggering mechanism which is a cold front during or shortly after the time of peak heating.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Saturday to monitor the severe weather and flood potential. Pictures of storm damage, flooding and post storm reports can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feed or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. Another coordination message will be posted by 1130 AM Saturday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook and WPC Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2023/day2otlk_20230728_1730.html

WPC Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook & Discussion:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpferd
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Saturday 7/29/23 – Severe Weather & Flash Flood Potential

July 28, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..One more day of potential severe weather and flash flooding for portions of Southern New England Saturday Afternoon and Evening between 12-9 PM timeframe with a low risk of a strong to severe thunderstorm early Saturday Morning in Southeast New England..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts in a slight risk for severe weather with a marginal risk for severe weather for the rest of Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours with urban/poor drainage, river and stream flooding are the primary threat with an isolated tornado as a secondary threat and the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed all of Southern New England in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Saturday with Amateur Radio Ops at NWS Boston/Norton possible Saturday Afternoon and Evening. A more complete coordination message will be posted by 11 PM Friday Evening including the summary of reports from the Thursday 7/27/23 severe weather event. Pictures of storm damage, flooding and post storm reports can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feed or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook and WPC Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

WPC Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook & Discussion:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpferd
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Thursday 7/27/23 Severe Weather & Flash Flood Potential

July 27, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Renewed threat for severe weather across all of Southern New England with flash flooding potential in interior parts of Massachusetts hard hit by recent severe weather and flash flood events for Thursday Afternoon and Evening. This has the potential to be a significant severe weather outbreak for interior Southern New England. Oppressive Heat and Humidity is also expected in the Thursday through Saturday timeframe..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued much of Southern New England in a slight risk for severe weather for Thursday Afternoon and Evening for scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding of urban/poor drainage areas, rivers and streams as the main threat with isolated tornadoes as a secondary threat. The timeframe for severe weather potential is from 12-9 PM Thursday and SPC has sent a mesoscale convective discussion for an 80% chance of a watch for the region..
..The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed interior Southern New England from a Boston to Providence line west and north into a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall for Thursday Afternoon and Evening..
..A Flood Watch is now in effect from Thursday Morning through Thursday Evening for the entire NWS Norton coverage area except for Cape Cod and the Islands and Washington County RI for excessive rainfall leading to flooding of urban and poor drainage areas, small rivers and streams..
..A Heat Advisory is in effect from 11 AM Thursday Morning to 8 PM Saturday Evening for the entire NWS Norton Coverage area except for the East Slopes of the Berkshires and Cape Cod and the Islands for heat indices up to 100 degrees..
..Due to the potential for severe weather Thursday and severe weather potential for Friday and Saturday, Post messages on the prior flood and severe weather events will be posted by Sunday 7/30/23 or Monday 7/31/23..
..SKYWARN Activation with Amateur Radio at NWS will be active by 1 PM EDT this Thursday Afternoon. Pictures, videos and reports on severe weather/flooding for the upcoming 7/27/23 severe weather/flood event can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter for the picture/video unless otherwise indicated..

Another severe weather and flood event affected the region Tuesday Afternoon and Evening 7/25/23. Below are the summary reports on the events Tuesday:

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log of Amateur Radio and non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotter Reports – Tuesday 7/25/23 Severe Weather Event:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/reports_7_25_23.pdf

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report – Tuesday 7/25/23 Severe Weather Event:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/LSR-from-KBOX-7_25_23.pdf

NWS Boston/Norton Public Information Statement – Tuesday 7/25/23 Severe Weather Event:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/PNS-from-KBOX-7_25_23.pdf

Any pictures, videos and reports on severe weather/flooding from Tuesday 7/25/23, can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter for the picture/video unless otherwise indicated.

Yet another in a series of severe weather and flash flood events could potentially occur during Thursday Afternoon and Evening. The timeframe for severe weather potential is from 12-9 PM Thursday and SPC has sent a mesoscale convective discussion for an 80% chance of a watch for the region. This has the potential to be a significant severe weather outbreak for the region. Key factors include:

1.) Cloud debris which is moving out as forecasted today and heating is taking place as expected though this will bear close watching that it continues as expected for the day.
2.) Timing of any thunderstorm development near or shortly after the time of peak heating

SKYWARN Activation with Amateur Radio at NWS will be active by 1 PM EDT this Thursday Afternoon. Pictures, videos and reports on severe weather/flooding for the upcoming 7/27/23 severe weather/flood event can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter for the picture/video unless otherwise indicated. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook, SPC Mesoscale Convective Discussion and WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook and Discussion:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Mesoscale Convective Discussion:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1736.html

WPC Day-1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook & Discussion:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpferd
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Thursday 7/27/23 Severe Weather & Flash Flood Potential

July 26, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..After a one day reprieve, a renewed threat for severe weather across all of Southern New England with flash flooding potential in interior parts of Massachusetts hard hit by recent severe weather and flash flood events for Thursday Afternoon and Evening. This event will bear close monitoring as this could be a significant severe weather event if certain mesoscale features line up accordingly. Oppressive Heat and Humidity is also expected in the Thursday through Saturday timeframe..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed all of Southern New England in a slight risk for severe weather for Thursday Afternoon and Evening for scattered to possibly numerous strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding of urban/poor drainage areas, rivers and streams as the main threat with an isolated tornado as a secondary threat.
..The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed interior Southern New England from a Boston to Providence line west and north into a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall for Thursday Afternoon and Evening..
..A Flood Watch is now in effect from Thursday Morning through Thursday Evening for Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Worcester, Middlesex, Essex, Suffolk and Norfolk Counties of Massachusetts for excessive rainfall leading to flooding of urban and poor drainage areas, small rivers and streams..
..A Heat Advisory is in effect from 11 AM Thursday Morning to 8 PM Friday Evening for North-Central Rhode Island, Northern Connecticut, Eastern Franklin, Eastern Hampshire, Eastern Hampden, Worcester, Central and Southeast Middlesex, Essex, Suffolk, Norfolk, North-Central Bristol and North-Central Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for heat indices up to 100 degrees..
..Due to the potential for severe weather Thursday and severe weather potential for Friday and Saturday, Post messages on the prior flood and severe weather events will be posted by Sunday 7/30/23 or Monday 7/31/23..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Thursday Afternoon and Evening with additional operational measures being considered depending on the evolving severe weather potential. Pictures, videos and reports on severe weather/flooding from Tuesday 7/25/23, prior events or the upcoming 7/27/23 severe weather/flood event can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter for the picture/video unless otherwise indicated..

Another severe weather and flood event affected the region Tuesday Afternoon and Evening 7/25/23. Below are the summary reports on the events Tuesday:

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log of Amateur Radio and non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotter Reports – Tuesday 7/25/23 Severe Weather Event:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/reports_7_25_23.pdf

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report – Tuesday 7/25/23 Severe Weather Event:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/LSR-from-KBOX-7_25_23.pdf

NWS Boston/Norton Public Information Statement – Tuesday 7/25/23 Severe Weather Event:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/PNS-from-KBOX-7_25_23.pdf

Yet another in a series of severe weather and flash flood events could potentially occur during Thursday Afternoon and Evening. The exact timing is a bit uncertain. This has the potential to be a particularly robust severe weather event if certain mesoscale parameters line up. Those key factors include:

1.) What amount of cloud cover debris occurs from ongoing convection west of New England overnight into Thursday Morning. If more heating can occur than currently expected, it would raise the potential for potent and numerous severe thunderstorms in the coverage area.
2.) Timing of any thunderstorm development near or shortly after the time of peak heating

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Thursday Afternoon and Evening with additional operational measures being considered depending on the evolving severe weather potential. Pictures, videos and reports on severe weather/flooding from Tuesday 7/25/23, prior events or the upcoming 7/27/23 severe weather/flood event can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter for the picture/video unless otherwise indicated. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 AM Thursday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook, and WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook and Discussion:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2023/day2otlk_20230726_1730.html

WPC Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook & Discussion:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpferd
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday Afternoon & Evening 7/25/23 Severe Weather Potential

July 25, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday Afternoon and Evening anytime between 12-9 PM across much of Southern New England with the greatest potential in interior Southern New England from roughly Southwest Massachusetts and the Connecticut River Valley through Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts, North-Central Rhode Island and Connecticut..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather for Tuesday with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lighting and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats..
..Additionally, SPC has placed all of Southern New England in a slight risk for severe weather on Thursday as oppressive heat and humidity builds into the region. Future coordination messages on Wednesday will detail this severe weather potential and the oppressive heat potential for the Thursday through Saturday timeframe..
..A Post Severe Weather/Flood Coordination Message from the Friday 7/21/23 flash flood and severe weather event will be posted later today or on Wednesday as we wrap up data, pictures, videos etc. that have come in while handling today’s severe weather potential and the team also handled isolated strong thunderstorm activity from Monday Afternoon and Evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon and Evening and Self-Activation, at minimum, is likely on Thursday Afternoon and Evening..

Continued periodic chances for severe weather and flooding continue this week along with the potential for a heat wave in the Thursday through Saturday timeframe. This message focuses on today’s potential across Southern New England with another potentially more robust severe weather event on Thursday that will be handled in future coordination messages along with the oppressive heat potential. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors for Tuesday’s severe weather potential include:

1.) Timing of the trough axis into Southern New England. This timing has varied the severe weather potential from early to mid afternoon to the later afternoon/early evening timeframe so there is a wide range in time on the severe weather potential.
2.) Upper level Wind Shear and certain instability parameters are favorable but lower levels of the atmosphere winds and other instability parameters are unfavorable so the more favorable parameters will be key in overcoming the unfavorable ones for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms to develop.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon and Evening and Self-Activation, at minimum, is likely on Thursday Afternoon and Evening. This will likely be the only coordination message on today’s severe weather potential unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs and time allows for an update. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Friday Afternoon & Evening 7/21/23 Severe Weather & Flood Potential

July 21, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are becoming more likely in Western, Central Massachusetts and Connecticut for Friday Afternoon and Evening between 2-9 PM. Strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats with an isolated tornado as a secondary threat. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has upgraded Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut to a slight risk for severe weather with a marginal risk through Rhode Island and the I-495 corridor of Eastern Massachusetts north of the Mass Pike..
..The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed the same area in a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flood potential for Friday Afternoon and Evening..

An evolving severe weather scenario for today with increasing potential per model runs between last night and this morning. SPC has upgraded Western and Central Massachusetts to a Slight Risk for severe weather as noted in the headlines. The key factors for today include:

1.) Current radar shows showers and cloud cover over the Slight risk area with clearing behind this activity. This is associated with the warm front which is expected to slow down and hold near the Central Massachusetts to New Hampshire area. The amount of clearing for destabilization and instability will be critical for a more robust severe weather event in the Slight risk area.
2.) The overlap of instability with shear and forcing near the time of peak heating.
3.) The position of the warm front and how close it is to cold frontal thunderstorms will determine the level of rotation within the thunderstorms. Timing and whether two rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms may occur in the region is a bit lower confidence so the afternoon and early evening timeframe from 2-9 PM and perhaps slightly earlier in the afternoon will need to be watched.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flood potential for Friday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode unless time allows and a critical operational update is needed. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

WPC Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook & Discussion:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpferd
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Friday Afternoon and Evening 7/21/23 – Severe Weather and Flood Potential

July 20, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in Western and Central Massachusetts and most of Connecticut for Friday Afternoon and Evening between 2-9 PM. Strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats with an isolated tornado as a secondary threat. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western and Central Massachusetts and most of Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather and the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed the same area in a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flood potential for Friday Afternoon and Evening. A more complete coordination message will be posted Friday Morning by 11 AM. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook and WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

WPC Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook & Discussion:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpferd
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2023/day2otlk_20230720_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday Afternoon and Evening 7/18/23 – Severe Weather & Flash Flood Potential

July 18, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible particularly across Western and Central Massachusetts and North-Central Connecticut this Tuesday Afternoon and Evening with strong to damging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with the potential of urban, poor drainage, river and stream flooding. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a slight risk for severe weather in Norhwest Massachusetts with a marginal risk of severe weather through West-Central Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut with the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) having a similar area in a marginal to slight risk of flash flooding..
..A Flood Watch is in effect from through Tuesday Evening for Hartford County Connecticut, Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Northern Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for excessive rainfall and prior heavy rainfall resulting in flooding of urban, poor drainage areas, rivers and streams..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flash flood potential for this Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the only coordination message as we are in operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=FFA&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

WPC Day-1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook & Discussion:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpferd
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Flood & Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Sunday 7/16/23 Significant Flooding & Severe Weather Potential

July 16, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Relentless heavy rainfall for portions of Southern New England will become much more widespread on Sunday with a significant flash flood threat to urban, poor drainage areas, rivers and streams from thunderstorms with frequent lightning and heavy downpours and a secondary threat for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail and even a isolated weak tornado as a secondary threat..
..A Flood Watch is in effect from 2 AM Sunday through late Sunday Night for all of Southern New England except for Plymouth County Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands for excessive runoff from heavy rainfall may cause flooding of small creeks, streams, urban and poor drainage areas, highways, and low lying spots along with 1-2″ per hour rainfall rates..
..The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall and the remaining eastern parts of the region in a slight risk of excessive rainfall for Sunday..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has expanded the marginal risk for severe weather for Sunday to all of Southern New England..
..SKYWARN Activation with Amateur Radio Operations at NWS Boston/Norton will commence no later than 9 AM for this potentially significant flood event and the secondary threat for severe weather. ARES/RACES groups should closely monitor the progress of Sunday’s weather and seek advice on any activation for this situation. Pictures and videos of flooding and storm damage can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds or via the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit being given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..

A relentless pattern for heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, flooding as the primary threat with isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms as a secondary threat continues particularly for Sunday. Sunday needs to be monitored for significant flooding impacts for the region. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) There will be a widespread 1-3″ rainfall but there will be enhanced areas of 3-5″+ rainfall. If this heavier rainfall falls over metro/urbanized areas and/or areas hardest hit by heavy rainfall over the last 2 weeks, it will have the potential to cause a high impact in parts of our coverage area.
2.) The severe weather potential is a secondary threat but any sunshine that increases instability coupled with sufficient wind shear profiles would increase the severe weather potential and NWS Boston/Norton in coordination with SPC has expanded the marginal risk for severe weather to all of Southern New England.
3.) Rain Gauge and flood reports, pictures and videos will be key to closely monitor the impacts of flooding and always are helpful for any severe thunderstorm wind damage.

SKYWARN Activation with Amateur Radio Operations at NWS Boston/Norton will commence no later than 9 AM for this potentially significant flood event and the secondary threat for severe weather. ARES/RACES groups should closely monitor the progress of Sunday’s weather and seek advice on any activation for this situation. Pictures and videos of flooding and storm damage can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds or via the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit being given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. Another coordination message will be posted by 10 AM Sunday depending on what level of activity operations are at during the early morning hours tomorrow. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement & Map, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, WPC Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook & Discussion and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement & Map:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=FFA&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Flood-Watch.png

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

WPC Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook & Discussion:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpferd
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2023/day2otlk_20230715_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

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