Storm Coordination Message #4 – Late Sunday Night 12/17/23-Monday 12/18/23 Coastal Storm Hazards

Hello to all…

..A strong coastal storm will bring another round of strong to damaging winds and heavy rainfall to much of Southern New England with the potential for minor to low-end moderate coastal flooding to South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island late Sunday Night through Monday Evening. This storm system is more intense and will intensify significantly on approach and over Southern New England which means the potential for strong to damaging winds could be more widespread than the event early last week..
..A High Wind Warning remains in effect from 5 AM to 7 PM Monday for Rhode Island, Cape Cod and the Islands, Bristol, Plymouth, Norfolk, Southeast Middlesex, Suffolk and Eastern Essex Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds of 30-45 MPH and gusts 60-65 MPH with isolated higher gusts possible and the highest gusts over coastal Southern New England. These winds will cause scattered pockets of tree and power line damage and scattered power outages..

..A Wind Advisory remains in effect from 5 AM to 7 PM Monday for Worcester, North-Central Middlesex, and Western Essex Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts up to 55 MPH and isolated higher gusts possible. These winds will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages..
..A Wind Advisory remains in effect from 1 AM to 4 PM Monday for Northern Connecticut and Franklin, Hampshire and Hampden Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH with isolated higher gusts possible. These winds will cause isolated pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages..
..A Flood Watch remains in effect from Sunday Evening to Monday Evening for Northern Connecticut, Northwest Providence County Rhode Island, Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden and Worcester Counties of Massachusetts and has been expanded to include North-Central Middlesex, Western Norfolk, Northern Bristol Counties of Massachusetts and Kent and Southeast Providence Counties of Rhode Island for a widespread 2-3″ of rain with higher amounts of 3-4″+ possible. These rains coupled with the rains from early last week bring the potential for flooding of urban, poor drainage areas, small rivers and streams..
..Areas outside of the Flood Watch area will receive a widespread 1-2″ of rain with isolated higher amounts with minor urban and poor drainage flooding possible..
..A Coastal Flood Warning is now in effect for the Monday Midday High Tide from 10 AM-2 PM Monday for Southeast Providence, Eastern Kent, Washington and Newport Counties of Rhode Island for minor to low-end moderate coastal flooding of shore roads in this area. A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect for the Monday Midday High Tide from 10 AM-2 PM Monday for Southern Bristol County Massachusetts for minor coastal flooding of shore roads at the time of high tide. A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect for the Monday Afternoon high tide cycle from 1-5 PM for Eastern Essex County Massachusetts for minor coastal flooding of shore roads at the time of high tide..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Connecticut, Rhode Island and portions of Southeast Massachusetts in a marginal risk for severe weather for convective showers and possible thunderstorms that can bring strong to damaging winds to the surface and could enhance localized pockets of wind damage..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio repeater monitoring will monitor for rain gauge, flooding, measured wind gusts 40 MPH or greater and wind damage reports for this storm system. The peak of the storm will be Monday Morning through mid-afternoon. Pictures and videos of storm damage and flooding and can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and via the email address pics@nsradio.org..

Another storm system will bring the potential for strong to damaging winds, heavy rainfall and minor to low-end moderate coastal flooding during the Monday Midday/Afternoon high tide cycle. The headlines depict the current thinking with High Wind Warning, Wind Advisories and Flood Watches remaining posted for the same area with Coastal Flood Warnings for Rhode Island and Coastal Flood Advisories for Southern Bristol County Massachusetts on the South Coast and Eastern Essex County of East Coastal Massachusetts. Key factors include:

1.) This is a strong/deeper coastal storm system than the one early last week. With the storm last week, approximately 14,000 customers lost power in Southern New England with close to 9,000 in Massachusetts. The strong wind gusts forecast did materialize but were in pockets and isolated to pockets where heavier rain and convective showers brought the winds down to the surface. It was also noted that areas just inland of some coastal areas also had some of the strongest winds. Where this storm will be stronger and intensifying near or over Southern New England, it is likely that this will allow for winds of similar magnitude as last week but over a larger area which could create more scattered pockets of wind damage and power outages than the last storm event. This is reflected with High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories across all of the coverage area. There has been no change to this thinking other than any thunderstorms or heavy convective fine line of showers that can develop will enhance the damaging wind potential which is why the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Connecticut, Rhode Island and portions of Southeast Massachusetts in a marginal risk for severe weather.
2.) Heavy rainfall and renewed potential for flooding is possible across portions of Western and Central Massachusetts, Connecticut and now extends into the Providence, Taunton area through Western Norfolk Counties into portions of Middlesex County Massachusetts with 2-3″ of rain with isolated higher amounts of 4″+ where Flood Watches are now posted. A widespread 1-2″ of rain with isolated higher amounts are expected in the remainder of Southern New England with more nuisance type flooding possible.
3.) A Coastal Flood Warning is now in effect for South Coastal Rhode Island for minor to low-end moderate coastal flooding at the time of the midday high tide with a Coastal Flood Advisory for Southern Bristol County Massachusetts now posted for the same midday high tide and a Coastal Flood Advisory for Eastern Essex County Massachusetts for minor coastal flooding during the mid-afternoon high tide cycle.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio repeater monitoring will monitor for rain gauge, flooding, measured wind gusts 40 MPH or greater and wind damage reports for this storm system. The peak of the storm will be Monday Morning through mid-afternoon. Pictures and videos of storm damage and flooding and can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and via the email address pics@nsradio.org. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Flood Watch Statement with Rainfall Map, High Wind Watch Statement with Wind Gust Map, Coastal Flood Warning/Advisory Statement, SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Flood Watch Statement & Rainfall Map:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=FFA&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/NWS_Norton_Rainfall_Map_Monday_12_18_23_Rev_2.jpg

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement & Wind Gust Map:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=NPW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
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