Blizzard/Storm Coordination Message #3 – Early Tuesday Morning 3/14/17-Early Wednesday Morning 3/15/17 Blizzard/Major Winter Storm Potential

March 12, 2017 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all…

..Potential Blizzard and Major Winter Storm for Southern New England Late Monday Night through Late Tuesday Night. Preparations for this potential blizzard and major winter storm should commence today with preparations completing late Monday Night/early Tuesday Morning..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from from 5 AM to 1 PM Tuesday and a Blizzard Watch is now in effect from Tuesday Afternoon through late Tuesday Night for Essex, Central and Southeast Middlesex, Norfolk, Suffolk, Plymouth and Bristol Counties of Massachusetts and Southeast Providence, Bristol, Kent, Newport and Washington Counties of Rhode Island for 12-18″ of snow with an isolated band of 18-24″ of snow potentially in the northeast parts of the area, the potential for blizzard and whiteout conditions including thundersnow and winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts in the 55-65 MPH range. The combination of heavy snow that could be a wet snow along southeast coastal areas and strong to damaging winds will have the potential for isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages..
..A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for Cape Cod and the Islands from late Monday Night through late Tuesday Night for 4-8″ of snow. In this area, the amount of snow is the most uncertain and will be more track dependent and depending on track could be closer to the current forecasted amounts or will be higher if a more offshore track is favored. There is the potential for near blizzard and near whiteout conditions and winds of 35-45 MPH with gusts 60-65 MPH. The combination of heavy snow that could be a wet snow and strong to damaging winds will have the potential for isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 5 AM Tuesday to 2 AM Wednesday for the rest of the NWS Taunton Coverage Area for 12-18″ of snow with isolated higher amounts of 18-24″ either in a few locations or in a band within this area, the potential for near blizzard and near whiteout conditions with thundersnow potential and sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts of 40-50 MPH. The winds will have the potential to cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages..
..A High Wind Watch remains in effect for Cape Cod and the Islands from Tuesday Morning to Tuesday Afternoon for sustained winds of 35-45 MPH with gusts to 65 MPH. These strong to damaging winds coupled with any wet snowfall will have the potential for isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages..
..A Coastal Flood Watch is now in effect from Tuesday Morning through Tuesday Afternoon for East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and Nantucket for widespread minor to pockets of moderate coastal flooding at the time of the early Tuesday Afternoon high tide cycle..
..Upgrades to warnings and advisories and other adjustments to the current watches are likely as we get closer to this potential blizzard..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will occur with this potential blizzard potentially as early as 5-6 AM Tuesday and will last through late Tuesday Night. The timing of the activation and Amateur Radio Operations may be fine-tuned as we get closer to this event..
..ARES, RACES and Emergency Communications groups should closely monitor the progress of this potential blizzard and seek advice from their local leadership on any potential activation as they get closer to the potential blizzard event..
..Pictures from this major storm event will likely be helpful for situational awareness and disaster intelligence purposes. They can be sent via our WX1BOX social media Facebook and Twitter feeds, as a reply to this message or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter or Ham Operator for sending the pictures unless otherwise noted..

The headlines of this coordination message depict the potential for a major winter storm/blizzard for the region based on the current weather model projections. In this update, the Blizzard Watch was expanded to include central sections of Rhode Island including the Providence area and much of Eastern Massachusetts and Winter Storm Warnings were issued for all areas except for Cape Cod and the Islands where a Winter Storm Watch remains in effect. Confidence is increasing on the overall track, intensity and snowfall amounts for this storm for much of the area with the highest uncertainty over Cape Cod and the Islands. The track is expected to be near Nantucket and the Outer Cape to possibly as far southeast as the 40 North/70 West benchmark. We are still 2 days away from this potential major winter storm/blizzard but most details are falling into place with the exception of snowfall amounts and precip type over Cape Cod and the Islands. The key items to be sorted as we watch the potential for this major winter storm/blizzard include:

1.) Exact storm track is key but is becoming a bit more certain with a consensus between near Nantucket and Outer Cape Cod to the 40 North/70 West benchmark. Timing issues are being worked through with snow expected to start from 4-8 AM Tuesday from southwest to northeast and rapidly become heavy with snowfall rates of 2-4″ per hour expected for several hours. The greatest uncertainty with these track differences is whether or not the Cape and Islands region remains all snow or if there is any mix or change to rain. That will make the difference in the current forecasted 4-8″ of snow for that area or much higher amounts. For the rest of the region, a widespread 12-18″ is likely with a band or isolated higher amounts of 18-24″ somewhere in that wide swath with northeastern and north-central parts of Massachusetts currently favored but this could change as we get closer to the storm event.
2.) The strong to damaging wind potential of this system is high. The consistency of the snow and how wet it is and whether a zone of heavy wet snow sets up will determine the extent of any tree and wire damage in the region. This will bear close watching and the greatest risk is over South Coastal Rhode Island and Southeast Coastal Massachusetts.
3.) How widespread the blizzard conditions will be. The current watch configuration and the expansion of the Blizzard Watch into Central Rhode Island and much of Eastern Massachusetts is based on where the highest confidence is for blizzard conditions. This could be adjusted in future updates.
4.) Extent of coastal flooding and if the strongest winds coincide with either high tide cycle. This will impact the level of coastal flooding along north and east facing areas. Currently, a Coastal Flood Watch has been issued for the Tuesday Afternoon high tide cycle for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod.

People should prepare for this major storm similar to other past major winter storms for the region. Have plenty of batteries and battery powered equipment on hand and test out this equipment and any generator equipment. Make sure you have gas for your generator as well. If it turns out that you do not lose power in the storm, you will be better prepared for the next storm system.

Pictures from this major storm event will likely be helpful for situational awareness and disaster intelligence purposes. They can be sent via our WX1BOX social media Facebook and Twitter feeds, as a reply to this message or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter or Ham Operator for sending the pictures unless otherwise noted.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will occur with this potential blizzard potentially as early as 5-6 AM Tuesday and will last through late Tuesday Night. The timing of the activation and Amateur Radio Operations may be fine-tuned as we get closer to this event. ARES, RACES and Emergency Communications groups should closely monitor the progress of this potential blizzard and seek advice from their local leadership on any potential activation as they get closer to the potential blizzard event. Another coordination message will be posted by 900 AM EDT Monday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Blizzard Watch/Winter Storm Warning/Watch Statement, High Wind Watch Statement, Coastal Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics:

NWS Taunton Blizzard Watch/Winter Storm Warning/Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Wind Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box