Hurricane Jose Coordination Message #4 – Tuesday Evening 9/19/17-Wednesday Night 9/20/17 Possible Jose Impacts

September 17, 2017 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Confidence growing in tropical storm impacts to portions of Southern New England similar to that of a nor’easter or strong nor’easter type of storm..
..A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect from Plymouth Massachusetts to Westerly Rhode Island and includes all of Cape Cod and the Islands including Block Island, Southern Bristol, Southern and Eastern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts and Newport and Washington Counties of Rhode Island for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with wind gusts in the 45-55 MPH range with isolated higher wind gusts likely with 2-5″ of rain likely. These winds could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages as well as urban and poor drainage flooding from heavy rainfall along with minor to moderate coastal flooding and the potential for significant beach erosion. Interests elsewhere in Southern New England should closely monitor the progress of Jose..
..A High Surf Advisory is now in effect through 800 PM Monday for Southern Rhode Island including Block Island, Southern Bristol County, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket Islands for southerly swell, high surf and rip currents at area beaches from Hurricane Jose. This advisory will likely be extended over the next few days in both time and areal coverage as Jose approaches Southern New England..
..Hurricane Jose has gradually intensified and will either intensify slightly more or hold its intensity for another day or so before it gradually weakens. During this entire timeframe, however, Jose is expected to become a larger system with an expanding rain and wind field and will continue to travel northward for the next couple of days and then turn toward the northeast and east around or just north of 40 North latitude later Tuesday Night and Wednesday..
..VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Net management are monitoring the progress of both Jose and Maria. Since Jose is not near land, they are not active at this time. These hurricane nets will be activating for Maria and her impact on the Caribbean islands Monday Afternoon through Wednesday and will continue to monitor the progress of Jose..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely some time late Tuesday into Wednesday Night presuming direct impacts of some kind into Southern New England occur and the most likely scenario at this time is tropical storm force conditions in Southeast New England though there remains a bit of uncertainty with track and the wind field and if it will extend further into Southern New England..

Hurricane Jose is currently a 90 MPH category-1 hurricane and has continues its northward motion. Jose’s wind field is expanding and his wind field is expected to continue to expand over the next few days. Jose is expected to continue to track towards the north with some increase in forward speed and has gradually intensified and will either intensify slightly more or hold its intensity for another day or so before it gradually weakens. Model guidance today has continued to hover around the 40 North/70 West benchmark or slightly to the west and north of the benchmark while a few models are little south and east of the benchmark. Tropical Storm Watches are now in effect for Southeast New England along with high surf advisories as indicated in the headlines and the current expected conditions are that of a nor’easter or strong nor’easter as indicated in the headlines of this message. Interests elsewhere in Southern New England should monitor the progress of Jose. Factors that are still in play with Jose include the following:

1.) Jose has strengthened a bit over the weekend and then will gradually weaken as it moves up to New England. Models are varying the speed of Jose on his closest approach to the region. This will effect ultimate direct impacts on weather in Southern New England in the late Tuesday to Wednesday timeframe presuming a close enough track to affect portions of Southern New England as currently indicated.
2.) The size of Jose has expanded and will continue to expand as he moves up the coast and he may start a transition into a post-tropical system which may allow wind fields to expand further including on the west side of the system.
3.) The gradient between high pressure in Canada and Hurricane Jose may be a contributing factor to the strong winds over Southeast New England and could allow for some strong winds in other parts of the area north of Eastern New England depending on the track, strength and structure of Hurricane Jose.

Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should continue to keep high situational awareness regarding the track, intensity and structure of Hurricane Jose. People should gradually begin reviewing their preparedness measures for tropical storm/hurricane force conditions as a precaution. This information has been provided via the Hurricane Preparedness Week at a link to that is below:

Hurricane Preparedness Week Public Information Statements of Safety Tips and a recently issued Public Information Statement on Tropical Storm preparedness can be seen via the links below:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/hurr_prepare_week_2017.txt
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/pns_ts_watch_jose_9_17_17.txt

Once again, Hurricane Jose should be monitored closely by people in Southern New England. The latest NWS Taunton Hurricane Jose Local Statement – Tropical Storm Watch Information Statement, High Surf Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and advisory and key messages information on Hurricane Jose are listed below:

NWS Taunton Hurricane Jose Local Statement – Tropical Storm Watch Infromation Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Surf Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt32.KNHC.html

Hurricane Jose Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt42.KNHC.html

Hurricane Jose Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt22.KNHC.html

Hurricane Jose Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font12.KNHC.html

Hurricane Jose Key Messages Slide:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/AL122017_key_messages.png

The next coordination message will be posted by 900 AM Monday Morning pending further computer model data on the track of Jose and significant updates to Jose’s status as a tropical system from an intensity perspective.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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