Tropical Storm Jose Coordination Message #7 – Wednesday 9/20/17-Thursday 9/21/17 Jose Impacts

September 20, 2017 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Hurricane Jose weakens to a tropical storm. Confidence continues in tropical storm impacts to portions of Southern New England similar to that of a nor’easter or strong nor’easter type of storm but more confined to the Cape and Islands with some wind effects farther north and west. Wind effects expected to last through early Thursday Evening..
..The Tropical Storm Warning from Hull Massachusetts southward to Sagamore Beach and west of Woods Hole has been discontinued meaning the Tropical Storm Warning for Newport and Washington Counties Rhode Island and southern Bristol and Southern and Eastern Plymouth Counties is discontinued..
..A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Sagamore Beach Massachusetts to Woods Hole Massachusetts and includes all of Cape Cod and the Islands including Block Island, for sustained winds of 20-35 MPH with wind gusts in the 45-60 MPH range with isolated higher wind gusts possible and 2-5″ of rain likely. These winds could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages as well as urban and poor drainage flooding from heavy rainfall along with minor to moderate coastal flooding and the potential for significant beach erosion..
..A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for Barnstable and Nantucket Counties of Massachusetts from Tuesday Evening through Wednesday Afternoon for 2-5″ of rain with isolated higher amounts..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 1000 AM Wednesday Morning through 6 PM Thursday for all of Rhode Island except Northwest Rhode Island and Essex, Southeast Middlesex, Suffolk, Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds of 15-25 MPH with gusts up to 45 MPH and isolated higher wind gusts possible along the coastal areas and at Blue Hill. These winds may cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from 11AM to 3PM Wednesday for Eastern Plymouth County for minor coastal flooding of shore roads at the time of high tide Wednesday..
..A High Surf Advisory is now in effect for Eastern Essex, Eastern and Southern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts and Newport and Washington Counties of Rhode Island through County Massachusetts through 8 AM Friday for southerly swell, high surf and rip currents at area beaches from Tropical Storm Jose. The High Surf Advisory was expanded back into parts of East and South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island due to discontinuing the Tropical Storm Warning for these areas..
..Tropical Storm Jose will continue to gradually weaken in 1-2 days and become post tropical in about 2 days but has a large storm envelope and it will continue to become a larger system with an expanding rain and wind field and will continue to travel northward-northeastward for the next day or so and then turn toward the northeast south of the 40 North/70 West benchmark Wednesday into Thursday. On this track, the stronger impacts will stay offshore for a time but because Jose is expanding and will expand further when it becomes post tropical. prolonged period of strong wind gusts will continue in the Tropical Storm Warning and Wind Adivsory areas into Thursday..
..VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Net management are monitoring the progress of both Jose and Maria. These hurricane nets are activated for Maria and will remain active through late Wednesday Night for Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands and will continue to monitor the progress of Jose. Check out the Hurricane Watch Net web site at http://www.hwn.org and the VoIP Hurricane Net web site at http://www.voipwx.net for more information..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor any increase of winds and the coastal flood potential for Tuesday Evening and now through Wednesday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely but may not commence until Wednesday Afternoon. Shortened coordination messages will be sent updating the SKYWARN Activation status since the winds may occur over a prolonged basis..

Tropical Storm Jose is currently a 70 MPH tropical storm and is moving northeastward. Jose will gradually weaken over the next day or two but Jose’s wind field is expanding and his wind field can continue to expand over the next few days. Jose will continue to track to the northeast and east and southeast in the 2-5 day period likely becoming post tropical in about 2 days. Model guidance today has shifted south of the 40 North/70 West benchmark which caused adjustments to the tropical storm warning area to be focused on the Cape and Islands region but Wind Advisories, Heavy Surf Advisories and Coastal Flood Advisories posted further north and west across the coverage area as Jose becomes post tropical the wind fields will expand further. The headlines of this coordination message capture the updates. Factors that are still in play with Jose include the following:

1.) The size of Jose has expanded and will continue to expand as he moves up the coast and he may start a transition into a post-tropical system which may allow wind fields to expand further including on the west side of the system.
2.) The gradient between high pressure in Canada and Tropical Storm Jose may be a contributing factor to the strong winds over Southeast New England and could allow for some strong winds in other parts of the area north of Eastern New England depending on the track, strength and structure of Jose along with minor coastal flooding along the north shore of Massachusetts.

Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should continue to keep high situational awareness regarding the track, intensity and structure of Tropical Storm Jose. People should be reviewing and implementing their preparedness measures for tropical storm conditions in and near the Tropical Storm Warning area. This information has been provided via the Hurricane Preparedness Week at a link to that is below:

Hurricane Preparedness Week Public Information Statements of Safety Tips and a recently issued Public Information Statement on Tropical Storm preparedness can be seen via the links below:

http://beta.wx1box.org/local/hurr_prepare_week_2017.txt
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/pns_ts_watch_jose_9_17_17.txt

The latest NWS Taunton Tropical Storm Jose Local Statement – Tropical Storm Warning Information Statement, High Surf Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and advisory and key messages information on Tropical Storm Jose are listed below:

NWS Taunton Tropical Storm Jose Local Statement – Tropical Storm Warning Information Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1709181532.wtus81.html

NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Surf/Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Tropical Storm Jose Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt32.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Jose Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt42.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Jose Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt22.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Jose Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font12.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Jose Key Messages Slide:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/AL122017_key_messages.png

This will likely be the last complete coordination message unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs. Shortened coordination messages will be issued on SKYWARN Activation status Wednesday into Thursday as we shift into operations mode.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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