Storm Coordination Message #3 – Sunday 2/7/21 Coastal Storm Hazards
Hello to all…
..Coastal Storm on track to affect much of Southern New England Sunday Morning through Sunday Evening with a plowable to heavy snowfall. Track of system is a bit lower confidence than normal at this time range thought model ensembles are better a handle on this coastal storm system. Some changes to Winter Storm headlines have been made based on the latest guidance..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 7 AM Sunday to 1 PM Monday for Tolland and Windham Counties of Connecticut, Worcester, Middlesex, Essex, Suffolk, Norfolk, Bristol, Plymouth and Barnstable Counties of Massachusetts and all of Rhode Island except for Block Island RI for 5-9″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and wind gusts inland of up to 35 MPH with wind gusts in Southeast New England particularly along the coast of 40-50 MPH. The Outer Cape could see lesser amounts of 2-5″. The snow is likely to be heavy and wet particularly in coastal areas and Southeast New England and the wet snow and wind gusts may result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 7 AM Sunday to 1 PM Monday for Block Island RI and Marthas Vineyard for 2-6″ of snow and wind gusts to 40-50 MPH. If snow totals of 3″ or more occur given the snow being heavy and wet, the potential would exist for isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 7 AM Sunday to 1 PM Monday for Nantucket Island for 1″ of snow with higher amounts if less mixing than currently forecast occurs and wind gusts to 50 MPH.. The wind gusts may cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 7 AM Sunday to 1 PM Monday for Franklin, Hampshire, and Hampden Counties of Massachusetts and Hartford County CT for 4-6″ of snow..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely across much of Southern New England for this storm event Sunday Morning to Sunday Night..
A coastal storm is taking aim on Southern New England for Sunday Morning through late Sunday Night. Model guidance is coming into gradual agreement on the track, speed and intensity of the storm but uncertainty is higher than normal for a storm system that will start impacting the area in less than 24 hours. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:
1.) There remains some spread in the guidance a bit larger than normal regarding the northwest cutoff in precipitation over the region. At this time, a plowable snowfall is expected across much of Southern New England with the heaviest snow east of I-84 in Connecticut and from Worcester County east in Massachusetts where a Winter Storm Warning is now posted for 5-9″ of snow with isolated higher amounts. West of this area 4-6″ of snow is expected.
2.) The intensity of the storm will dictate any wind issues in addition to heavy snowfall across eastern and southeastern New England. Also, temperatures will be near freezing in Southeastern and East Coastal New England which could result in a heavier wetter snow which coupled with wind gusts of 40-50 MPH could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages.
3.) Some models bring some mixing to some coastal areas particularly the Outer Cape and the islands so Block Island Rhode Island and Marthas Vineyard were downgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory in this update with a Winter Weather Advisory posted for Nantucket. This is another tough part of the forecast as just a slight shift in track or precipitation falling heavy enough to remain accumulating snow may allow for higher amounts over these areas.
4.) The storm will be fast moving starting early to mid morning Sunday and finishing by mid-evening Sunday.
SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely across much of Southern New England for this storm event Sunday Morning to Sunday Night. If time allows and there is a significant change in the forecast, another coordination message will be posted by 1100 AM Sunday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Snowfall Maps:
NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo
NWS Boston/Norton Snowfall Map:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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