Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Thursday Afternoon & Evening 7/28/22 Severe Weather Potential
Hello to all…
..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible to likely over an expanded portions of Southern New England Thursday Afternoon and Evening with the greatest potential in interior Massachusetts, Northern Connecticut and North-Central Rhode Island north and west of the Boston to Providence corridor though all areas should monitor with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has placed the region north and west of the Boston to Providence corridor in a slight risk for severe weather with areas from Boston to Providence south and east in a marginal risk for severe weather. The timeframe for the activity is between 3-11 PM Thursday Afternoon and Evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Thursday Afternoon and Evening..
At 1040 AM, a warm front is moving through New England on Thursday bringing in more humid and somewhat warmer conditions to the region for later this morning through the remainder of the day and Satellite imagery is showing considerable clearing behind the warm front to allow for destabilization in the region. A cold front and trough is currently in Western New York and is causing several severe thunderstorms in this area. This activity will move east and with the clearing and destabilization ahead of the front, that should allow for a reasonable coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms across our coverage area. As always is the case in these scenarios, not every city or town will see a strong to severe thunderstorm but the coverage will be isolated to scattered and could become a bit more numerous if the following key factors are met:
1.) Heating and destabilization continues as current satellite imagery indicates creating a higher level of instability to allow for some mitigating instability factors to be overcome. Shear will be sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorm development.
2.) Forcing moves in close enough to peak heating in the region.
3.) Storms are able to organize sufficiently has discreet storms or a line or short segment lines of strong to severe thunderstorms.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Thursday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org