Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday August 10th, 2011 Severe Weather Threat
Hello to all..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across much of the NWS Taunton County Warning Area for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening with a secondary cold front and cooler air aloft as the atmosphere destabilizes later this morning into the afternoon over much of the region. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..Threat timeframe still appears to be after 4 PM, however, radar trends will need to be monitored in case the threat is a bit earlier than expected due to activity in Central New York currently moving slowly eastward..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely later this afternoon and this evening..
Overnight, heavy rainfall affected portions of Northwest Connecticut, Central and Northeast Massachusetts and Southeast New Hampshire with widespread 1-3″ rainfall with slightly higher amounts over this area. This may have resulted in urban flooding during the overnight hours.
Satellite imagery shows clearing moving in over Western Massachusetts, Connecticut, parts of Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts with mostly clear conditions over Eastern New York State. This clearing should move into Central Massachusetts and the remainder of Eastern Massachusetts later this morning. Doppler Radar is showing some scattered heavy shower and possible isolated thunderstorm activity over Central New York just east of the Finger Lakes moving slowly eastward. This activity will need to be monitored to see if it organizes and picks up speed as wind shear profiles increase over the area.
Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible for much of the NWS Taunton County Warning Area as we get into later this afternoon and evening. Cooling aloft and sufficient wind shear profiles with likely heating and destablization given current satellite imagery showing clearing moving in the area are supporting factors to isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm activity. A possible limiting factor will be drying and a drop of the dewpoints. That situation occurred last Tuesday August 2nd and limited the severe weather potential though isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms did occur on that day over Eastern Massachusetts. Threat timeframe looks to be after 4 PM today though an earlier start time will need to be monitored depending on the activity in Central New York State east of the Finger Lakes.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely today. This will be the last complete coordination message on this threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below are the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org