Hello to all..

..Potential for a Severe Weather Outbreak across portions of Western and Central New England from Western Middlesex County Massachusetts west, most of Southern New Hampshire and most of Connecticut. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. Isolated supercells are possible if storms organize ahead of what is expected to be a squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms..
..SPC has placed portions of Western and Central New England in a Moderate Risk for Severe Weather with a Slight Risk for severe weather across Eastern New England. NWS Taunton is in agreement on a potential severe weather threat..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely mid-to-late Saturday Afternoon through early Sunday Morning..

The potential exists for a severe weather outbreak across portions of Southern New England. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the area of Southern New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and much of Connecticut in a Moderate Risk for Severe Weather with a Slight Risk for Severe Weather across much of the remainder of Eastern New England. The severe weather threat surrounds a cold front in the Midwest United States which will enter the Northeast on Saturday and traverse off the coast by early Sunday Morning. Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms could develop by mid to late afternoon across the area ahead of the cold front. These isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms could allow for a supercell or two to form over the area. Following those storms, a long-lived Squall line of thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail as the main threats could traverse the region.

As always with forecasting severe weather outbreaks, there are some factors to be contended with that could mitigate the threat. Some of the factors here include:

1.) Sufficient clearing to allow for heating and destablization over the course of the day Saturday across the region or the ability of jet dynamics and strong wind shear that is expected to accompany to cold front to overcome any potential lack of heating.

2.) Cold frontal timing may be past peak heating of the day which could be a mitigating factor unless favorably strong wind shear profiles have the ability to compensate for frontal timing if past peak heating.

It is noted that a previous moderate risk for severe weather earlier this summer resulted in no severe weather over the area. The factors in this scenario are different and appear a bit more favorable. Also, in general, the last 3 of 4 moderate risk areas have verified over our area and in the case of the last moderate risk area, it was verified across the mid atlantic states.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely anytime in the Saturday mid-to-late afternoon timeframe through early Sunday Morning. Another coordination messages will be posted by Noon Saturday. Below is the SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook and the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator     
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

The following is an announcement from KB1GHX-Glenn Field, NWS Taunton Warning Coordination Meteorologist (WCM), regarding the 13th Annual Southern New England Weather Conference on Saturday October 27th, 2012. The announcement is listed below:

Earlybird registration is now available through Sept. 9 for this year’s 13th Annual Southern New England Weather Conference.  The conference will be held on Saturday, October 27th at Meditech Corp. in Canton, MA (at base of Blue Hill), same place as last year.

The conference is sponsored by the not-for-profit Blue Hill Observatory Science Center.  We have a fantastic program lined up for this year.  Unlike previous conferences, which covered a wide range of meteorological topics, this year we are going to explore in-depth three major events that all happened in 2011: 

1) the June 1 Springfield/Monson/Brimfield Tornado
2) Tropical Storm Irene
3) “Snowtober” — the late October 2011 snowstorm. 

We plan to cover each event from several interesting angles.  For example, for the tornado, we will discuss meteorological factors; have tv meteorologists show media storm coverage; give a talk on the disaster surveying process and its challenges; and we will hear personal accounts from survivors and even a reverend who will discuss how he handled the spiritual healing for the bereaved and other townsfolk.  For Irene, we will have presentations from the CT Dept. of Emergency Services and Public Protection, by the East Haven Fire Chief (Cosey Beach had tremendous coastal flooding), by the U.S. Geological Survey, by NWS-Burlington and the Executive Director of the Blue Hill Observatory (who lives in Vermont), etc.  And for Snowtober, we will address some issues that may not first come to mind, such as air quality issues that resulted from use of wood-burning stoves… and Jet Blue Airlines will be there to discuss an operational airline perspective and the impacts of the storm (remember the stranded passengers at Bradley International Airport?).  National Grid will give a presentation on the wild weather of 2011 and its impact on the delivery of electricity (tornadoes, hurricanes, snowstorms each require different types of restoration planning). 

Assuming there is no major outbreak of severe weather the last week of October, our keynote speaker in the afternoon will be Dr. Greg Forbes, the Severe Weather Expert from The Weather Channel in Atlanta, GA to discuss the very severe 2011 that struck the entire nation.  Also, before the conference, we will be having a “Breakfast with Matt” with some tidbits about various weather websites.

The cost of the earlybird registration (collected by Blue Hill Observatory Science Center) is $89; after Sept. 10, it increases to $99…and registration onsite will be $109.  This includes a continental breakfast and a delicious hot lunch buffet provided by Rita’s Catering of Boston. 

Conference website: http://www.sneweatherconf.org
Conference agenda/abstracts/biographies:  http://www.sneweatherconf.org/2012Agenda.shtml
Conference registration:  http://www.sneweatherconf.org/confregform.cfm

Please share this with all of your colleagues/friends… or anyone else… it is open to the entire general public and is presented at a very understandable level — it’s not a conference just for meteorologists!  Thanks and hope to see you there.

— Glenn Field -WCM; NWS Taunton

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator     
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

Amateur Radio Hurricane Nets will be activated Tuesday Morning through Wednesday Afternoon for the impact of Isaac on the Northern US Gulf Coast. The details of those activation plans can be seen via the following links:

http://www.hwn.org
http://www.voipwx.net

Listen only information for these nets appear on their web sites. For those interested in reports received by the VoIP Hurricane Net from various resources, the following is a report viewer that can be seen as reports are entered:

http://report.voipwx.net/qilan/nhcwx/list_VOIP_records?auth=OK

We hope the Northern US Gulf Coast is spared the worst from this large and dangerous tropical system. Ironically, this system will be affecting the region on the 7 year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina though Isaac is not expected to be as bad as Katrina and the 1 year anniversary of Irene’s impact on Southern New England.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator    
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

The Boxboro Hamfest and New England ARRL Division Convention will be held Friday August 24th-26th, 2012 at the Holiday Inn in Boxboro Massachusetts. General information on the Hamfest/Convention including the complete forum program, schedule, dinners, vendors and other events can be seen via the following link:

http://www.boxboro.org

There will be a RACES/ARES/SKYWARN booth at the Boxboro Hamfest/New England Division Convention staffed by Eastern Massachusetts ARES, RACES, SKYWARN personnel who can answer questions on the various EMCOMM programs in Massachusetts and direct folks within the New England Division to resources within their section. Please stop by and visit the booth during the convention/hamfest. Sign-ups for ARES and SKYWARN and various email lists will be taken at the booth throughout the convention timeframe. Additional booths by other organizations will be present and see boxboro.org for more information.

The Hamfest and New England Division Convention will feature the following in regards to SKYWARN/ARES/RACES/MARS/EMCOMM related items:

-SKYWARN Training on Friday August 24th, 2012 from 1-4 PM in the Cotillion Room at the Holiday Inn in Boxboro. The session is open to anyone wishing to receive SKYWARN training and will count for full training class credit.

Emergency Communications/SKYWARN Presentations on Saturday August 25th, 2012 in the Seminar Conference Room:

-MA Interoperable Program Mike Neilsen – W1MPN from 9 AM-10 AM

-9/11 – A 10 Year Retrospective Steve Schwarm – W3EVE from 10 AM-11 AM

-SKYWARN Overview presented by Rob Macedo-KD1CY from 11 AM-Noon.

-ARES SEC (Section Emergency Coordinator) Forum moderated/presented by Rob Macedo-KD1CY with representation from various ARES Section Emergency Coordinators and their designees Noon-1 PM.

It is also noted that at the Boxboro Banquet on Saturday Evening August 25th, Connecticut TV Meteorologist Geoff Fox-K1GF will be the guest speaker.

Emeregency Communications Presentations on Sunday August 26th, 2012:

-Army, Air Force, Navy, Marines MARS Joint Meeting moderated by Bob Veth-K1RJV/NNN0FCC in the Cotillion Conference Room from 10 AM-Noon. Open to all Amateur Radio Operators

Once again, a complete forum schedule, vendors and other information on the Boxboro Hamfest/New England Division Convention are available via their web site at http://www.boxboro.org

We look forward to seeing many folks at the convention!

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator    
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible late Friday Afternoon through Friday Night across interior Southern New England. Damaging Winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..Threat is contingent on amount of instability and the overlap between the instability and increasing wind shear over the region. The Storm Prediction Center has the ‘See Text’ 5% severe weather probability over the area for Friday Night..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible late Friday Afternoon through Friday Evening..

A Cold Front in Western New York State will approach the region from the west later this afternoon and tonight. There will be some instability over the region through heating and destablization before clouds increase ahead of the cold front. As the front approaches, wind shear profiles will increase over the region but the frontal timing will be towards tonight as heating decreases. The main question on the extent of any severe weather threat will be how much instability occurs during the day and remains into Friday Night and the overlap of that instability with increasing wind shear ahead of the cold front Friday Night. Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon in western areas extending into interior central and eastern locations overnight Friday Night with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. SPC has placed the region in the 5% ‘see text’ severe weather potential and NWS Taunton is in agreement.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible late Friday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the only complete coordination message on this severe weather potential. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

..Line of showers and thunderstorms will move through the area this morning with an isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorm possible with this activity but the main threat will be heavy downpours and brief flooding issues. This will be handled through SKYWARN Self-Activation..
..Once the morning activity moves through, clearing should allow for destabilization and the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms to impact portions of Southern New England. Damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has upgraded much of the region to a Slight Risk for Severe Weather and NWS Taunton is in agreement..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely later this Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..

At 640 AM, Doppler Radar showed an area of showers and thunderstorms traversing Southern New England. The main threat with this line are lightning strikes and heavy rainfall but an isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. This activity will be handled through SKYWARN Self-Activation.

Infrared satellite imagery shows clearing will take place behind this activity and as a trough approaches the area, this will set the stage for Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding being the main threats. The threat timeframe appears to be for mid to late afternoon through evening. SPC has upgraded much of Southern New England to a slight risk for severe weather and NWS Taunton is in agreement.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely later this Wednesday Afternoon into tonight. This will be the last complete coordination message on today’s threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across much of Southern New England Wednesday Afternoon and Evening as warm and humid conditions combined with an upper level trough approaching the area combine to allow for this potential. Damaging Winds, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..

Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Southern New England. Warm and humid conditions will return to the area Wednesday. As an upper level trough approaches, cooling will take place aloft. This cooling aloft with warm and humid conditions will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. Possible mitigating factors to severe weather potential include the amount of cloud cover over the area that could mitigate heating and destabilization and the fact that winds aloft will be marginal. If sufficient heating occurs, the cooling aloft combined with the trigger from the pre-frontal trough should be able to overcome marginal winds aloft for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms over Southern New England particularly in the interior.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be issued by 9 AM ET Wednesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1208141719.acus02.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

..Severe Weather Outbreak and Flash Flood Event over Connecticut, South-Central Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts Friday Afternoon August 10th, 2012..
..NWS Taunton Forecasters have determined an EF1 Microburst occurred in Glastonbury, Connecituct and an EF1 Microburst occurred in Taunton, Massachusetts. In both areas, Amateur Radio and non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Reports were received in the areas of significant damage..
..A complex of storms known as a Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) affected the region bringing damaging winds, heavy rain and flood/flash flooding to portions of the region..
..Any pictures of damage can be sent as a reply to this email or to kd1cy@comcast.net and credit will be given to the spotter for the pictures and shared with local/state/federal emergency management and the media unless otherwise indicated..
..A HUGE THANK YOU to all SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators who supported this severe weather outbreak event on Friday 8/10/12..
..Below is the updated NWS Taunton Local Storm Report, Rainfall Reports via the NWS Taunton Public Information Statement, Public Information Statements on the Micorbursts in Taunton, Mass and Glastonbury, CT and the raw storm report log..

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/lsr_8_10_12.txt

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement – Glastonbury, CT Storm Survey Information:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/pns_8_10_12_Glastonbury.txt

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement – Taunton, Mass Storm Survey Information:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/pns_8_10_12_Taunton.txt

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement – Rainfall Reports:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/pns_8_10_12_rainfall.txt

NWS Taunton Raw Amateur Radio Storm Report Log:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/storm_reports_8_10_12.txt

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible again today across much of Southern New England. Damaging winds, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the primary threats..
..Threat will again be contingnent on surface heating and in this scenario surface heating ahead of a cold front. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the region in a ‘See Text’, 5% severe weather probability citing concerns on extent of severe weather threat due to cloud cover. NWS Taunton is in agreement..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible later this Saturday Afternoon and Evening..

Another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Southern New England. At 815 AM, Doppler Radar showed an area of rain and possibly embedded thunderstorms tracking northeast and could affect Cape Cod and the Islands and possibly South Coastal Massachusetts during the morning hours. Satellite imagry shows cloud cover with some breaks over the remainder of Southern New England. As a cold front approaches, isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms could once again develop over much of Southern New England. Wind Shear profiles are sufficient to produce severe weather. The amount of heating is more of a concern today versus yesterday as there were more breaks in the cloud cover over the region yesterday. Nonetheless, an isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm threat is possible with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding as the main threats. SPC has higlighted the area with a 5% ‘See Text’ Severe Weather probability and NWS Taunton is in agreement.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible today. This will likely be the only complete coordination message on today’s threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

..Severe Weather Outbreak and Flash Flood Event over Connecticut, South-Central Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts Friday Afternoon August 10th, 2012..
..NWS Taunton Forecasters will survey damage in Glastonbury, CT to determine the cause of damage in that area..
..A complex of storms known as a Mesosclae Convective Vortex (MCV) affected the region bringing damaging winds, heavy rain and flood/flash flooding to portions of the region..
..Any pictures of damage can be sent as a reply to this email or to kd1cy@comcast.net and credit will be given to the spotter for the pictures and shared with local/state/federal emergency management and the media unless otherwise indicated..
..Below is the NWS Taunton Local Storm Report, Rainfall Reports via Public Information Statement and the Survey Public Information Statement on Glastonbury, CT..

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1208110152.nwus51.html

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement – Glastonbury, CT Preliminary Storm Survey Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1208102339.nous41.html

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement – Rainfall Reports:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1208110143.nous41.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

Read more