Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Late Tuesday Night 10/7/14-Wednesday Morning 10/8/14 Severe Weather Potential

October 8, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms remain possible to likely over much of Southern New England early Wednesday Morning from 2-10 AM. Strong to damaging winds, hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats but an isolated tornado as a secondary threat cannot be ruled out. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a 5% severe weather risk through midday Wednesday..
..SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators are encouraged to set their NOAA All Hazards Radio or any cell phone applications that can alert them to warnings during the overnight period. There is some uncertainty with this severe weather potential for early Wednesday Morning but there are concerns for severe weather potential during a time period when many will be sleeping or getting ready to start their work day and start their morning commute. Keep your situational awareness high during this period by taking these steps..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from 6-10 AM for Southern Bristol County Massachusetts and South Coastal Rhode Island for minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide caused by strong southerly winds and an extended southerly fetch may cause minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide Wednesday Morning over South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 2 AM Wednesday Morning likely lasting through around 10-11 AM..

A somewhat unusual setup for severe weather is still expected over the region overnight into Wednesday Morning. There hasn’t been many changes to the latest model runs regarding the severe weather setup. Given the time of day this event is occurring, SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators are encouraged to set their NOAA All Hazards Radio or any cell phone applications that can alert them to warnings during the overnight period. There is some uncertainty with this severe weather potential for early Wednesday Morning but there are concerns for severe weather potential during a time period when many will be sleeping or getting ready to start their work day. Keep your situational awareness high during this period by taking these steps.

Southern New England will be in the warm sector and a strong cold front will move into the region overnight through Wednesday Morning. Despite the cold front coming through during overnight hours into Wednesday Morning which is typically an unfavorable time of day for severe weather potential, wind shear values will be very strong. Instability levels will not be terribly strong but models are indicating the potential for just enough instability for a potential low-topped squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms or a short line or two of strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats but a secondary threat for an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out if the storms are more discreet in nature and don’t end up in a line configuration. The threat timeframe is currently expected to be after 2 AM Wednesday Morning through 10-11 AM Wednesday Morning. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a 5% severe weather risk through midday Wednesday.

The uncertainty in the overnight severe weather potential will be with how much instability is truly realized despite the unfavorable time of day and if the mesoscale processes can tap into the very strong winds aloft. The instability and mesoscale processes will determine whether the event is more heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms with strong wind gusts causing isolated pockets of wind damage versus a threat for isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms producing more concentrated and more significant areas of damage via a squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms with the possibility of an isolated tornado. The situation bears close watching as models suggest a stronger severe weather scenario.

A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from 6-10 AM for Southern Bristol County Massachusetts and South Coastal Rhode Island for minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide caused by strong southerly winds and an extended southerly fetch may cause minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide Wednesday Morning over South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 2 AM Wednesday Morning likely lasting through around 10-11 AM. This will be the last coordination message on this potential severe weather threat. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement on the severe weather potential, NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement and the SPC Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement – Severe Weather Potential:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1410072237.wwus81.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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