Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Friday July 1st, 2016 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely particularly across Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut but also across much of Southern New England late this afternoon through tonight. Strong to Damaging winds, large hail, urban and poor drainage flooding from heavy rainfall and frequent lightning are the main threats but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out particularly in Western New England..
..The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has placed portions of Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut in a slight risk for severe weather with a marginal risk of severe weather through much of Southern New England to the Cape Cod Canal. Threat timeframe is between 500 PM Friday Evening through 100 AM Saturday Morning..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 500 PM today at the latest lasting through early Saturday Morning..

The potential exists for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across portions of Southern New England later this afternoon into the early overnight hours. The best chance for severe weather is across Western Massachusetts into Northern Connecticut but could affect much of Southern New England to the Cape Cod Canal. The headlines of this message reflect the current thinking.

The key questions for the potential for severe weather is how much instability develops and can that level of instability be maintained passed peak heating hours as well as the timing of stronger wind shear, favorable jet dynamics, and cooling of air aloft in the upper levels of the atmosphere. If instability is maintained through the evening and early overnight hours with better jet dynamics and cooling aloft, that would favor more numerous strong to severe thunderstorms and the potential for an isolated tornado particularly in Western New England.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 500 PM today lasting through early Saturday Morning. This will be the only message on today’s severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely particularly across Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut but also across much of Southern New England late this afternoon through tonight. Strong to Damaging winds, large hail, urban and poor drainage flooding from heavy rainfall and frequent lightning are the main threats but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out particularly in Western New England..
..The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has placed portions of Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut in a slight risk for severe weather with a marginal risk of severe weather through much of Southern New England to the Cape Cod Canal. Threat timeframe is between 500 PM Friday Evening through 100 AM Saturday Morning..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 500 PM today at the latest lasting through early Saturday Morning..

The potential exists for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across portions of Southern New England later this afternoon into the early overnight hours. The best chance for severe weather is across Western Massachusetts into Northern Connecticut but could affect much of Southern New England to the Cape Cod Canal. The headlines of this message reflect the current thinking.

The key questions for the potential for severe weather is how much instability develops and can that level of instability be maintained passed peak heating hours as well as the timing of stronger wind shear, favorable jet dynamics, and cooling of air aloft in the upper levels of the atmosphere. If instability is maintained through the evening and early overnight hours with better jet dynamics and cooling aloft, that would favor more numerous strong to severe thunderstorms and the potential for an isolated tornado particularly in Western New England.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 500 PM today lasting through early Saturday Morning. This will be the only message on today’s severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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