July 2023 – Page 2

Flood and Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Saturday 7/15/23-Sunday 7/16/23 Flood & Severe Weather Potential

July 15, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Relentless heavy rainfall for portions of Southern New England will be isolated on Saturday and then become much more widespread on Sunday with a significant flash flood threat to urban, poor drainage areas, rivers and streams from thunderstorms with frequent lightning and heavy downpours and a secondary threat for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds and hail as a secondary threat..
..The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall and the remaining eastern parts of the region in a slight risk of excessive rainfall for Sunday..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather for Sunday..
..A Flood Watch is now in effect for late tonight through Sunday Night for all of Southern New England except for Plymouth County Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands for excessive runoff from heavy rainfall may cause flooding of small creeks, streams, urban and poor drainage areas, highways, and low lying spots along with 1-2″ per hour rainfall rates..
..SKYWARN Activation with Amateur Radio Operations at NWS Boston/Norton are likely for this potentially significant flood event. ARES/RACES groups should closely monitor the progress of Sunday’s weather and seek advice on any activation for this situation. Pictures and videos of flooding and storm damage can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds or via the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit being given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..

A relentless pattern for heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, flooding as the primary threat with isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms as a secondary threat continues particularly for Sunday with isolated to scattered activity on Saturday. Sunday needs to be monitored for significant flooding impacts for the region. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) There will be a widespread 1-3″ rainfall but there will be enhanced areas of 3″ and more rainfall. If this heavier rainfall falls over metro/urbanized areas and/or areas hardest hit by heavy rainfall over the last 2 weeks, it will have the potential to cause a high impact in parts of our coverage area.
2.) The severe weather potential is a secondary threat but any sunshine that increases instability coupled with sufficient wind shear profiles would increase the severe weather potential.
3.) Rain Gauge and flood reports, pictures and videos will be key to closely monitor the impacts of flooding.

SKYWARN Activation with Amateur Radio Operations at NWS Boston/Norton are likely for this potentially significant flood event. ARES/RACES groups should closely monitor the progress of Sunday’s weather and seek advice on any activation for this situation. Pictures and videos of flooding and storm damage can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds or via the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit being given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement & Map, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, WPC Day-2 Exessive Rainfall Outlook & Discussion and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement & Map:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=FFA&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Flood-Watch.png

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

WPC Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook & Discussion:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpferd
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2023/day2otlk_20230715_0600.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather & Flood Coordination Message #1 – Thursday Afternoon & Evening 7/13/23 Through Friday Evening 7/14/23 Flood & Severe Weather Potential

July 13, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Overnight thunderstorms with frequent lighting and heavy downpours threaten to renew urban, poor drainage, river and stream flooding in portions of Western and Central Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island and into parts of Southeast Massachusetts bordering Rhode Island. A secondary threat for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, and hail also exists from early evening through late tonight. Additional chances for thunderstorms with heavy downpours and isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through the weekend into early next week..
..A Flood Watch is now in effect from 5 PM Thursday Evening through late tonight for Hartford, Tolland Counties Connecticut, Franklin, Hampden and Hampshire Counties of Massachusetts and from 11 PM Thursday Evening through late tonight for Rhode Island, Worcester, Western Norfolk, and Bristol Counties of Massachusetts for localized heavy rainfall exacerbated by recent wet conditions causing renewed flash flooding of urban, poor drainage areas, rivers and streams..
..The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has much of Southern New England in a marginal to slight risk for excessive rainfall for Thursday through Sunday with the category varying between marginal and slight depending on which day during this period..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a marginal risk for severe weather through early Friday Morning for Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut and a marginal risk for severe weather for Western and Central Massachusetts through Connecticut and Rhode Island for the remainder of Friday through Friday Evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flood potential Thursday evening through Sunday Evening..

A relentless pattern of thunderstorms, heavy downpours and isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will resume later Thursday through Sunday Evening around the region. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Thunderstorm intensity later this evening and overnight will hinge on remaining instability past peak heating and the wind shear profiles as the thunderstorms move in the region.
2.) The initial thunderstorms may be progressive overnight but additional thunderstorm activity will continue on Friday. These thunderstorms if they train over an area hard hit from the last few weeks will renew flooding fairly rapidly in a given area and this will be monitored.
3.) Additional thunderstorm and excessive rainfall potential will continue through at least Sunday Evening. Previous day’s thunderstorms and convection will determine how the next day’s thunderstorm and convection potential unfolds.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flood potential Thursday evening through Sunday Evening. The next coordination message will likely be some time between 8 AM and 1 PM Friday. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, WPC Day-1 and Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and SPC Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=FFA&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

WPC Day-1 and Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlooks:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpferd
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SPC Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2023/day2otlk_20230713_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Post Storm/Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Sunday Afternoon 7/9/23-Monday Evening 7/10/23 Flash Flood Event

July 11, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Significant flash flooding impacted portions of Western Connecticut, Western and Central Massachusetts, Northern Rhode Island in the Sunday Afternoon through Monday Evening with the highest impacts on Monday for Western and Central Massachusetts, and Northern Rhode Island on Monday. Even higher flash flooding impacts occurred in Vermont and parts of New Hampshire..
..Some area rivers will not crest until later today in portions of Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut. Any post storm final rain gauge reports, flood pictures/videos and damage will be helpful and can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit to the SKYWARN Spotter/Amateur Radio given unless otherwise indicated. This can include pictures/reports/damage from neighboring Vermont and New Hampshire to assist those areas as well. After a couple dry days Tuesday through Wednesday, more showers and thunderstorms could occur in the Thursday through Saturday period so the more data and pictures/videos of conditions, it will help understanding how future rainfall will impact area rivers and streams..
..Another post storm/severe weather coordination message will be posted by Wednesday Morning. Below is the log of all rain gauge and flood reports currently received, NWS Boston/Norton Public Info Statement and Local Storm Report on this event and a message from the US Army Corps of Engineers on a couple dams in the area..

WX1BOX Amateur Radio/Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotter Reports:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/reports_7_10_23.pdf

NWS Boston/Norton Public Information Statement:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/PNS_BOX_7_10_23.pdf

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/LSR_BOX_7_10_23.pdf

US Army Corps of Engineer Message on Ball Mountain Dam Townshend Dam:
https://www.nae.usace.army.mil/Missions/Recreation/Ball-Mountain-Lake/

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Sunday-Tuesday AM 7/9/23-7/11/23 Flood & Severe Weather Potential

July 9, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Thunderstorms and heavy convective showers will bring a renewed threat of flooding and flash flooding particularly to Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut though all areas of Southern New England should monitor this potential. There is also a secondary threat for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail and frequent lightning for Sunday Afternoon, Sunday Evening and on Monday..
..A Flood Watch is now in effect through Tuesday Morning for Northern Connecticut, Western and Central Massachusetts to include Berkshire, Hampshire, Hampden, Franklin, Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for rainfall of 2-4″ with isolated locations or an axis of rainfall that could be 5″ or more in areas that get thunderstorms and heavy rainfall that train over the same areas. This additional rainfall coupled with the rainfall of the last week could cause urban and poor drainage flooding as well as small river and stream flooding in this region..
..The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed much of the Flood Watch area and portions just east of the Flood Watch in a Slight to Moderate risk of excessive rainfall for Sunday through early Tuesday Morning..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has areas of extreme Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather Sunday and Western and Central Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island in a marginal risk for severe weather for Monday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the flooding and severe weather potential Sunday through early Tuesday Morning. Picture of storm damage or flooding can be sent to our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter social media feeds, as a reply to this message or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter on the photos unless otherwise indicated..

An active weather pattern has resumed across the area. On Saturday, localized flash flooding occurred in parts of Western Massachusetts and in Suffield, CT. Reports from this event can be seen below:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/reports_7_8_23.pdf

The headlines depict the current thinking on the primary risk for flooding and flash flooding in the region with a secondary risk for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms later Sunday Afternoon through early Tuesday Morning. Key factors include:

1.) There will be an axis of very heavy rainfall potentially of 5″ or more within the more general area of 2-4″ rainfall in the Flood Watch area. Where that sets up will be fine-tuned in future updates. If this affects metro areas and areas that have had the heavy rainfall over the past week, that will create greater impacts for parts of the region for higher impact flooding of urban and poor drainage areas as well as smaller streams and rivers.
2.) For areas outside of the Flood Watch, this rainfall and axis of heavy rainfall could affect portions of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island depending on the low pressure system track and these areas should monitor, particularly those that were hit hard from early last week’s flash flooding and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and in metro areas more prone to urban and poor drainage flooding.
3.) The severe weather potential is a secondary threat but one that will also bear close watching. Instability will likely be less due to heavy rainfall and ongoing thunderstorms but wind shear profiles will be stronger and could compensate for less instability.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the flooding and severe weather potential Sunday through early Tuesday Morning. Picture of storm damage or flooding can be sent to our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter social media feeds, as a reply to this message or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter on the photos unless otherwise indicated. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 PM Sunday Evening if time allows pending any ongoing flood and severe weather operations for later Sunday Afternoon and Evening. Below is the NWS Boston Norton Flood Watch Statement & Map, Rainfall Map, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, WPC Day-1 & Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlooks and SPC Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Boston/Norton Rainfall Map:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/QPF.png

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

WPC Day-1 and Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlooks:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpferd
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SPC Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Saturday Afternoon & Evening – 7/8/23 Flood & Severe Weather Potential

July 8, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Thunderstorms with frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding as a primary risk with a secondary risk for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds and hail are possible across Southern New England particularly for Western and Central Massachusetts along and west of the I-495 corridor, Northern Connecticut, and Northwest Rhode Island for this Saturday Afternoon and Evening..
..Additional thunderstorms with heavy rainfall, potential flooding concerns and an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm risk will continue for the Sunday Afternoon through early Monday Evening period as well and this will be detailed in future coordination messages. This is a similar pattern to what occurred on Sunday 7/2-Tuesday 7/4 time period..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the flooding and severe weather potential focusing on Saturday Afternoon and Evening to start and then Sunday into Monday time periods..

We are entering another active period of weather for Southern New England for the Saturday through Monday Evening timeframe. The headlines reflect current thinking with more details on the Sunday to Monday period to follow in future coordination messages. Key factors for today’s flooding and severe weather potential include:

1.) Thunderstorms and their ability to train over the same area and in areas that received heavier rainfall earlier this week will dictate the level of flooding concerns. This is especially true if the thunderstorms train over urbanized metro areas.
2.) Ability for instability to overcome low wind shear values for any stronger to isolated severe thunderstorms to form over the area and the potential for isolated wet microburst wind damage.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the flooding and severe weather potential focusing on Saturday Afternoon and Evening to start and then Sunday into Monday time periods. Another coordination message will be posted on the Sunday to Monday flooding and severe weather potential by 11 PM Saturday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday July 4th 2023 Severe Weather and Flood Potential

July 4, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Happy Independence Day/4th of July to all SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators. An active period of weather continues a time of many outdoor activities for the July 4th Independence Day holiday in Southern New England..
..On Monday Evening into Tuesday Morning, localized areas of Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut received another 1-4″ of rainfall with the hardest hit areas over Southeast Hartford into Tolland Counties of Connecticut and Northwest Hampshire into West-Central Franklin Counties of Massachusetts. Additional Thunderstorms and heavy rainfall is possible across portions of Southern New England particularly along and south of the Mass Pike today though all areas should monitor..
..The threat for strong to severe thunderstorms has decreased with heavy rainfall, urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning as the main threat for thunderstorms late Tuesday Morning through Tuesday Evening but an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out in the region as a secondary threat. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has pulled the region out of marginal risk as any severe thunderstorms will be quite isolated but thunderstorms with heavy downpours and frequent lightning can occur in parts of Southern New England today..
..A Flood Watch is in effect through Late Tuesday Night for Northern Connecticut, Providence County RI, Eastern Franklin, Eastern Hampshire, Eastern Hampden, Worcester, North-Central Middlesex, Western Norfolk and Northern Bristol Counties of Massachusetts for excessive rainfall causing flash flooding in areas that receive persistent heavy downpours and thunderstorms and in areas that receive these persistent heavy downpours and thunderstorms that also had heavy rainfall from Sunday 12 AM through Tuesday Morning. The Flood Watch for Western Essex County has been canceled..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the flood and isolated severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon and Evening..

An active period of weather continues for the July 4th Independence Day holiday. On Sunday through early Monday Morning, a swath of 2-4″ rainfall with isolated higher amounts occurred across Western, North-Central and Northeast Massachusetts and North-Central Connecticut with 0.50-2″ rainfall amounts across the remainder of Northern Connecticut and into parts of Norfolk, Middlesex and Suffolk Counties of Massachusetts. Rhode Island received the least rainfall and Southeast Massachusetts had between 0.10-1.2″ of rain with the higher amounts in Western Cape Cod. A detailed list of rainfall reports, flood reports and isolated severe thunderstorm wind damage can be seen here:

NWS Norton Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio Spotter Reports Log:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/reports_7_2_23_7_3_23.pdf

NWS Norton Public Information Statement – Precipitation Reports:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/PNSBOX_7_3_23_Rainfall.pdf

On Monday Evening into Tuesday Morning, localized areas of Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut received another 1-4″ of rainfall with the hardest hit areas over Southeast Hartford into Tolland Counties of Connecticut and Northwest Hampshire into West-Central Franklin Counties of Massachusetts.The following is a report focused on this information and will be updated later this morning and posted as a post message regarding the heavy rainfall and localized flooding over the past few days:

https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/reports_7_3_23.pdf

For July 4th, the severe weather potential has lessened and the main threat from thunderstorms is frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding. An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out but any coverage of severe weather will be quite isolated compared to the heavy rainfall, flooding and lighting potential. Key factors for today include:

1.) Amount of sunshine for heating and destabilization for today with ongoing shower and thunderstorm activity. Lessening shear and cloud cover is reducing the severe weather potential but thunderstorms with frequent lighting and heavy downpours remain possible in the region particularly along and south of the Mass Pike.
2.) Flooding will be contingent on whether the same areas get hit hard repeatedly with heavy downpours or if the heavy downpours occur in areas that have received significant rainfall from the early Sunday Morning to Tuesday Morning period
3.) Despite the severe weather potential lessening, flooding from heavy rainfall is a concern along with frequent lightning which could affect outdoor events.
4.) Not all areas will see a thunderstorm today. Some locations will and could see significant impacts while other locations may not see any activity. Staying weather aware and monitoring future forecasts, watches and warnings if doing outdoor events will be key to insuring safety and to make the right decisions regarding continuing with outdoor events.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the flood and severe weather potential for Tuesday. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch statement, Area Forecast, Discussion, and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=FFA&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday Afternoon and Evening 7/3/23 & Tuesday Afternoon & Evening 7/4/23 Severe Weather/Flash Flood Potential

July 3, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..An active period of weather during a time of many outdoor activities for the July 4th Independence Day holiday in Southern New England..
..On Sunday through early Monday Morning, a swath of 2-4″ rainfall with isolated higher amounts occurred across Western, North-Central and Northeast Massachusetts and North-Central Connecticut with 0.50-2″ rainfall amounts across the remainder of Northern Connecticut and into parts of Norfolk, Middlesex and Suffolk Counties of Massachusetts. Rhode Island received the least rainfall and Southeast Massachusetts had between 0.10-1.2″ of rain with the higher amounts in Western Cape Cod..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely particularly from the Mass Pike of Massachusetts South through Southeast Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut for later Monday Afternoon and Evening between 2-11 PM EDT. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the area along and south of the Mass Pike in a marginal risk for severe weather but all areas of Southern New England should monitor this potential and thunderstorms with frequent lightning are possible in various locations across the region through not all areas may get thunderstorms on Monday..
..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible to likely again particularly from the Mass Pike of Massachusetts south through Southeast Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut for Tuesday Afternoon and evening between 12-8 PM EDT and SPC has placed this area in a marginal risk for severe weather but again all areas of Southern New England should monitor for thunderstorm and isolated severe weather potential though again not all locations will receive a thunderstorm..
..The primary threat with thunderstorms over the next two days is strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lighting and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding and flooding in areas that received heavy rainfall early Sunday Morning through Monday Morning..
..A Flood Watch is now in effect through Late Tuesday Night for Northern Connecticut, Northwest Providence County RI, Eastern Franklin, Eastern Hampshire, Eastern Hampden, Worcester, North-Central Middlesex, and Western Essex Counties for excessive rainfall causing flash flooding in areas that receive persistent heavy downpours and thunderstorms and in areas that receive these persistent heavy downpours and thunderstorms that also had heavy rainfall from Sunday 12 AM through Monday Morning..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening and Tuesday Afternoon and Evening..

An active period of weather over the next 48 hours for the July 4th Independence Day holiday. On Sunday through early Monday Morning, a swath of 2-4″ rainfall with isolated higher amounts occurred across Western, North-Central and Northeast Massachusetts and North-Central Connecticut with 0.50-2″ rainfall amounts across the remainder of Northern Connecticut and into parts of Norfolk, Middlesex and Suffolk Counties of Massachusetts. Rhode Island received the least rainfall and Southeast Massachusetts had between 0.10-1.2″ of rain with the higher amounts in Western Cape Cod. A detailed list of rainfall reports, flood reports and isolated severe thunderstorm wind damage can be seen here:

NWS Norton Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio Spotter Reports Log:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/reports_7_2_23_7_3_23.pdf

NWS Norton Public Information Statement – Precipitation Reports:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/PNSBOX_7_3_23_Rainfall.pdf

Over the next two days, isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible to likely particularly in the areas along and south of the Mass Pike but all areas should monitor this potential. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Amount of sunshine for heating and destabilization for Monday Afternoon and Evening. This is looking to be tracking to forecast with clearing over much of Southern New England as of 1130 AM this morning.
2.) Ability for thunderstorms to fire near or shortly after the time of peak heating today to allow them to become strong to severe and maximize instability given wind shear profiles that are marginal
3.) Flooding will be contingent on whether the same areas get hit hard repeatedly with heavy downpours or if the heavy downpours occur in areas that have received significant rainfall from the early Sunday Morning to Monday Morning period
4.) Tuesday’s timeframe and amount of coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms will hinge on lingering cloud cover from Monday convection to clear out to allow heating and how convective trends evolve for late Monday Afternoon and Evening
5.) Regardless of whether severe criteria in the form of damaging winds and large hail occurs, flooding from heavy rainfall is a concern along with frequent lightning which could affect outdoor events.
6.) Not all areas will see a thunderstorm over the next couple of days. Some locations will and could see significant impacts while other locations may not see any activity. Staying weather aware and monitoring future forecasts, watches and warnings if doing outdoor events will be key to insuring safety and to make the right decisions regarding continuing with outdoor events.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening and Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be posted no later than 1130 AM Tuesday Morning and could be posted later Monday Evening depending on operations for the expected Monday Afternoon and Evening strong to severe thunderstorms. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch statement, Area Forecast, Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=FFA&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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