Hello to all..
..Strong Coastal Storm still expected to impact portions of Southern New England over a long period starting late tonight lasting through Friday Morning. High confidence in Strong to Damaging Winds, and several tidal cycles of coastal flooding as some of the primary threats. Heavy Wet Snow and accumulations of the wet snow and impact on trees and wires along with the strong to damaging winds still has high uncertainty and could change in future forecasts..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 7 AM Thursday to 1 PM Friday for Worcester and Northwest Providence County Rhode Island for 4-8 inches of snow and the potential for wet snow and strong winds to cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for Southern New Hampshire from 10 AM Thursday to 1 PM Friday for 4-6 inches of wet snow. The wet snow and strong winds may reault in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for Northern Connecticut, Southeast Providence, Kent, and Washington Counties of Rhode Island and Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Middlesex, Essex, Suffolk, Norfolk, Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts from 7 AM Thursday to 1 PM Friday for 3-6″ of snow with isolated higher amounts possible. The wet snow and strong winds may reault in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage..
..Areas outside of the Winter Weather Advisory/Winter Storm Warnings areas are currently expected to receive a coating to 2 inches of snow..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect through 7 AM Friday for Cape Cod and the Islands including Block Island Rhode Island for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH. The high winds will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect through 7 AM Friday Morning for Windham County Connecticut, all of mainland Rhode Island, Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Southeast Middlesex, Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50-55 MPH. The high winds will likely cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. If enough wet snow accumulation occurs, this could increase the amount of tree and wire damage to scattered pockets..
..A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect from 5 AM Thursday Morning to 10 AM Friday Morning for East Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands for several successive high tide cycles of moderate to pockets of major coastal flooding across the coastal flood warning area..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect from 3 AM Thursday to 6 AM Friday for several high tide cycles of beach erosion and possibly minor coastal flooding for Block Island RI..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 6 AM Thursday Morning to cover the Thursday early morning high tide cycle and will last through at least late Thursday Night. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will likely be needed for the Friday Morning high tide cycle as well. Overnight operations Thursday Night may or may not be needed and will be evaluated as we get closer to this storm event..
..Wet snow/wind damage and coastal flood/coastal flood damage pictures and videos during this storm event can be sent as a reply to this email or to the email address pics@nsradio.org for sharing with emergency management and the media. Credit will be given to the spotter taking the pictures and video unless otherwise indicated..
The headlines of this coordination message have been updated and detail the threats on an upcoming large and major coastal storm expected to affect Southern New England starting late Wednesday Night and lasting through early Friday Morning. There remains higher uncertainty than normal at this time range concerning the snowfall amounts across Southern New England. The track of the storm appears more certain but factors on snowfall make it difficult to forecast snowfall ranges. The headlines above represent a slight reduction in snowfall amounts but that remains a low confidence forecast. While there is low confidence in the snowfall forecast, there continues to be very high confidence on the potential coastal flood threat for East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the islands over multiple high tide cycles. The wind threat has also become a high confidence forecast with Wind Advisories and High Wind Warnings posted as stated in the above headlines. Currently, the main uncertainties at present remain as follows:
1.) Position of the rain/snow line and amount of mixed preciptiation at the coastline. This could affect snowfall amounts and the extent of any tree and power line damage and power outages and where they occur. A closer storm track will push the heavier wet snow away from the coast with more of a wet snow/rain mix or more of a plain rain falling at the coast while a storm track further away from the coast puts coastal areas at more risk for heavier wet snow.
2.) Ability of snowfall to accumulate if heaviest precipitation occurs during the day Thursday. Higher sun angle and marginal temperatures may affect and lower accumulations or allow for heavier accumulations on trees, power lines, grassy areas but less on paved surfaces. Spotter reports will be critical during the storm event to determine the extent of snow accumulation.
Wet snow/wind damage and coastal flood/coastal flood damage pictures and videos during this storm event can be sent as a reply to this email or to the email address pics@nsradio.org for sharing with emergency management and the media. Credit will be given to the spotter taking the pictures and video unless otherwise indicated.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 6 AM Thursday Morning to cover the Thursday early morning high tide cycle and will last through at least late Thursday Night. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will likely be needed for the Friday Morning high tide cycle as well. Overnight operations Thursday Night may or may not be needed and will be evaluated as we get closer to this storm event.
This will likely be the last coordination message for this event. If time allows and it is required, an updated situation report on the storm will be posted. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Warning Statement, High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and snowfall map:
NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Warning Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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